Around the Horn: AL West

Around the Horn goes through all the teams in a certain division, talking about what they've done right, what they've done wrong, and what they need to do to get better. Usually I'll get to about two divisions a week. Today: the AL West.

Anaheim LA Angels: The Angels aren't the best team in the AL, but they'll probably end up with the best record because they get to play so many games against the AL West, which is a much weaker division top-to-bottom than the East or the Central. If this does happen, it will kind of be a shame, because it will mean the two best teams in the AL (and in all of baseball), in my opinion, will meet in the division series (those two teams being Cleveland and Boston). But, regardless, the Angels are still a really good team, and they are certainly capable of winning 11 games in October if fortune spins their way. The Angels' 49-30 record is the best in baseball, thanks mostly to their stellar play at home (an AL-leading 29-13). Vladimir Guerrero is playing as well as usual, OPSing .989 and driving in 69 runs to date. Casey Kotchman has also played extremely well at first base, also with an OPS above .900, and rookie Reggie Willits has an OBP of .430. Signing Gary Matthews, JR. for 5/50 in the offseason was a terrible idea, but he's actually been pretty good so far. Howie Kendrick and Chone Figgins have both missed time this year due to injury, and some of their rookies (I'm looking at you, Eric Aybar) haven't played up to their potential. Kevilm Escobar and John Lackey both have ERAs under 3, and Jered Weaver is following up last year's stellar rookie season with another good year. Ervin Santana's numbers aren't great, but his splits are really interesting - he's 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA at home, but 1-6 with a 7.54 ERA on the road, and what's more, he's had the same splits his entire life. And the Angels have the best bullpen in all of baseball, between Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, and a number of other solid relievers.

There really aren't many fixes that the Angels need; their rotation is pretty solid, and they are one of the two or three teams that doesn't need bullpen help. Their main trading chip at this point is Shea Hillenbrand, who was designated for assignment today. Obviously, they'll get very little in return for him, but the Yankees are interested in the rather mediocre first baseman. The Angels have apparently had discussions about Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn, for some reason, even though they don't really need a first baseman. I don't really see a whole lot of improvements they can make in their lineup, though if they can pick up a DH cheap they might look into that.

Seattle: Wait a minute - Seattle? What the hell are they doing here? Shouldn't they be at the bottom of this list? The Mariners are a very surprising 42-33 this year, although they're still 5 games back of the Angels and a couple games out of the wild card. But don't let their record fool you - their run differential is that of a .500 team, so they're lucky to be where they are. In addition, most of their players are playing better than they should, so they're not likely to stay at anything close to this pace. Their hitters have been fairly solid up and down the lineup, which is surprising because they don't really have that many good hitters. They view themselves as contenders, and I guess when you're 9 games above .500, you've got to take a shot at the playoffs, but I wouldn't be too optimistic if I were a Mariner fan. Felix Hernandez has been very up-and-down, and Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista have been good starters, but they could certainly use another pitcher or two. Jeff Weaver has pitched like...well, Jeff Weaver, and his ERA is an ugly 7.71. J.J. Putz has been absolutely dominant as the M's closer, and the rest of their bullpen has been surprisingly solid.

The Mariners could certainly use some help in their rotation, and possibly their lineup, but they don't really have anybody that other teams covet. They might try to trade away Jose Guillen, as they have a solid replacement waiting in the wings in Adam Jones, but I'm not sure they could get anything for him. It would make sense to try to trade one of their overachieving relievers in a market that is starved for pitching, but I don't know who exactly would be interested in them, either. They've looked into Mark Buehrle, but I can't imagine they'd be able to come up with an enticing package of prospects for him.

Oakland: The A's have a better run differential than the Mariners, but are just two games above .500 as of today. They definately still have a shot at the playoffs, but they've got a lot of teams to catch if they are to get into the postseason. They've been hit hard by injuries; Rich Harden has ace stuff, but can't stay healthy. But the biggest problem for the A's is an anemic offense. Nick Swisher's .858 OPS has been fine, and Dan Johnson is starting to hit pretty well, as we expected, but the rest of their hitters are just mediocre. Bobby Crosby has a .284 OBP, and Jason Kendall is officially the worst hitter with a starting job in the major leagues - his .513 OPS (.259 SLG!!!) can attest to that. The other half of the game has not been a problem for Oakland - they've allowed the second-fewest runs in the AL (one more than Boston). In a just world, Dan Haren would be your All-Star game starter (we should know on Sunday whether or not that actually happens), with a 1.91 ERA and a WHIP under 1. All of their other regular starting pitchers have ERAs under 4. Their bullpen hasn't been spectacular, but it's been solid. Without any offense, though, they'll probably remain around .500.

The A's just recently cut outfielder Milton Bradley, for reasons not fully explained, and they dealt him to the Padres for reliever Andrew Brown, who should help them some, although they don't really need more pitching. MLB Trade Rumors has also speculated that they might trade Joe Kennedy, who is a free agent after this year, but that's probably unlikely. I don't see Billy Beane making any major moves this year; the A's will probably contend next year if they can pick up a little bit of offense thru free agency, and they don't really have anybody that other teams really covet.

Texas: Can Sammy Sosa just go away now? He's gotten his OBP up to .311 now, but that still isn't really helping the Rangers much. He's still contributing some through his .475 slugging percentage, but the Rangers aren't winning now or anytime in the near future; they need to start giving at-bats to their younger players. (The same can be said for the state's other team; Craig Biggio's been even worse than Sosa this year, and the Astros had some hope of contending at some point this season, though that's all but faded.) Mark Teixeira has been the lone bright spot for Texas, giving them a .959 OPS; Ian Kinsler's given them decent production from second base, but Michael Young isn't having nearly the year he was projected to, and they really haven't gotten a whole lot of offense from anywhere else. The bigger problem is their pitching; they've given up the second-most runs in all of baseball (only Tampa Bay's been worse), and they don't really have anybody on their team who has been underachieving - their pitchers just aren't any good. One would like to think that Brandon McCarthy (acquired from the White Sox this winter) at least has potential, but his ERA is 5.90 so far, and that's the lowest of any Rangers starter. Their bullpen's been okay, but not all that great.

Who do the Rangers move? Anybody that someone else wants. Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka have been pretty good coming out of the bullpen, and a number of teams (especially the Indians, who have some history of trading with Texas) have interest in both pitchers. Mark Teixeira is the best hitter on the market, but a deal for a hitter of his ability midseason seems somewhat unlikely (see Alfonso Soriano last year); they'll probably have more luck shopping him during the offseason. The Dodgers have interest in Teix, and they have the prospects to get a deal done, but they won't want to give up most of their young players.

Mark Buehrle: Rumors Flying...

The news on Mark Buehrle is all over the place today...I don't even know where to begin.

First off, Boston being the frontrunner for Buehrle was never actually the case; apparently, it was planted by the White Sox front office. I do believe the Red Sox looked into trading for him, at least when Schilling hit the DL, but there was no way a deal between the two teams was ever actually getting made.

This morning, MLB Trade Rumors reported that Buehrle was close to signing a four-year, $50 million deal. Personally, I think that would actually be a good signing by the ChiSox; it's true that Buehrle isn't an ace or even a #2 starter, but in this market, experienced #3 starters make eight figures a year. Buehrle probably won't succeed late into his career, as his K rate is already really low, but keeping the contract relatively short helps that. It'll be paying a little more than what you'll actually get, but that's what you have to do. Apparently PECOTA isn't as optimistic about this deal from the team's point of view, though...

But this evening, some more confusion was created; MLBTR again wrote that the two parties were nowhere near as close to agreeing on an extension as some thought. 4/50 did seem kind of cheap, given the market we're in; Buehrle could probably get something in the 5/70 range this winter. We'll wait and see if some more information comes out, but right now there really isn't any definitive info to be had.

Random stuff...

I didn't feel like writing anything over the weekend, so here are some random thoughts from the past couple days...

This is going all the way back to Thursday, but Roger Clemens had his worst start of his (short) season to this point in Colorado, giving up four runs in 4 1/3 innings. He struck out six and only walked one, but the two homers he allowed were the problem. I wouldn't be worried about this; I still think he ends up going something like 11-6 with an ERA in the low fours.

What I was more interested in was his splits; I noticed last time that he did poorly against lefties and when hitters put the first pitch into play. Well, hitters seemed to be more aggressive against Clemens this time, putting the first pitch in play three times in just over four innings, but it didn't help them a whole lot; they went just 1-for-3, with the lone hit being a Willy Tavares bunt single. (By the way, fast hitters have been taking advantage of Clemens' 44-year-old legs by bunting a lot off him; he's gonna have to get used to it, because it's not going to stop.) The lefties in the lineup - Kaz Matsui, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe - went a combined 2-for-6 with a walk; the righties were 5-for-14 with both homers, and that includes two at-bats by pitcher Rodrigo Lopez. Colorado's righties tend to be more dangerous than their lefties, however, as Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday are two of the best hitters in the league, and rookie Troy Tulowitzki is hitting very well.

In other follow-up news...Justin Verlander threw again Saturday, and had another really good outing - seven innings, only one earned run, earning him his ninth win of the season. That run came via a homer, which isn't great news; Verlander has been giving up an increasing number of home runs as the season has brogressed. His 11:2 K-BB ratio, however, is excellent news. He was under 100 pitches in his last outing, but was back up to 110 this weekend, which probably isn't good for the Tigers. The one thing I noticed after his no-hitter was that his first-pitch strike percentage had been decreasing throughout the season, causing me to wonder if he was hurt and to predict that he would either get hurt or lose his effectiveness, although he made me look dumb by throwing 17 of 28 first-pitch strikes in his next outing. On Saturday? 15 of 27. He wasn't very effective with his pitches, throwing more than four pitches per hitter, which still isn't a good sign; but it does seem that his first-pitch strike woes were an aberration and not a sign of anything important.

One more pitcher to follow up on: Yovani Gallardo. I wrote about his debut last week, and I was pretty impressed. Well, he actually pitched better yesterday, thrwoing seven innings of one-run ball, although he didn't get a win out of it. Gallardo had eight strikeouts to just two walks and five hits, and kept his pitch count under 100. I wasn't watching the whole game, and I can't find a comprehensive recap online, but from the highlights it seems that Gallardo was using his fastball and slider more instead of relying too heavily on his outstanding curve. His fastball was hitting 93, too, and it would be great if he could eventually get that up into the 95-96 range.

As the calendar turns towards July, trade talk obviously begins to heat up; the White Sox remain the most powerful team on the market. There are some new rumors out that, in addition to Mark Buerhle, Chicago might move some starters who are not free agents at the end of the year, including possibly Jose Contreras and Jon Garland. The Mets are very interested in Contreras, and if the White Sox actually can get Lastings Milledge in return for Contreras or a package centered around him, I think they should definitely do it; Contreras is 35 and not getting any younger, and his ERA+ has gone from 123 in 2005 to just 98 this year (an ERA+ of 100 is league-average).

Meanwhile, the Mets had been the favorite for Buerhle for a while, but on Thursday Jayson Stark said the Braves were the favorite. Then, over the weekend, it became the Red Sox. I wouldn't say it's likely that any team gets him at this point; there are plenty of interested teams, and it's going to take a while for things to sort themselves out. I will say that at this point it doesn't seem likely that he goes to the Mets; the Red Sox and Braves both have more to offer in the way of second-tier prospects, and the Mets have made it clear they aren't including Lastings Milledge in a deal for a three-month rental. The Red Sox don't really make sense as a destination, as they will have five good starters when Jon Lester comes back, but it's possible that Curt Schilling's injury is more serious than people initially thought.

Nobody really seems to know where the top hitters - Adam Dunn, Jermaine Dye, and Mark Teixeira - are going to end up. People around baseball seem to think it's very likely that Dunn gets traded, although I personally don't think he'll leave Cincinatti. Teixeira's been rumored to the Angels, though he doesn't help that lineup all that much, and Bill Stoneman is a relatively conservative GM. The Yankees have had interest, but they aren't going to give up what it takes to get him. The Dodgers seem to be the most likely trade partner at this time, as they have plenty of good young players, but I think Teixeira stays in Texas. He's not a free agent until after the 2008 season, so they'll probably have more success trying to deal him this winter. Dye seems to be the most likely hitter to be dealt, and the Padres seem to want him pretty badly, but teams aren't going to give up too much for him when he's only hitting .230.

Around the Horn: AL Central

Around the Horn goes through all the teams in a certain division, talking about what they've done right, what they've done wrong, and what they need to do to get better. Usually I'll get to about two divisions a week. Today: the AL Central.

Cleveland: The Indians have ridden baseball's second-best home record (24-11, second to the Angels) to a tie for first in the division despite playing just .500 ball on the road. They have had good run differentials in the past two years, though their win totals haven't been indicitive of that. Usually, a team's winning percentage will roughly match their run differential (a theory basically known as the Pythagorean Expectation); when that doesn't happen, it is usually the result of luck, and to a lesser extent, a bad bullpen. The Indians can't do anything about the former, but they've tried to fix the latter, with some success; closer Joe Borowski still seems to be a question mark, with a 1.52 WHIP and an ERA over 6, but middle relievers Aaron Fultz and Rafael Betancourt have been good. As for the rotation...Fausto Carmona's 3.12 ERA means that Jeremy Sowers is the odd man out of the rotation, at least for the near future. C.C. Sabathia is quite possibly the most underrated pitcher in baseball; he's an ace and a workhorse, yet he doesn't get the publicity that comparable pitchers such as Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter get. There's not much to say about the lineup...Victor Martinez probably only has one or two more years left as a catcher before he gets shifted to first base, but in the meantime, he's probably the best offensive catcher in the game. Grady Sizemore is one of the first players mentioned in any "best all-around player in the game" discussion, and he's only 24. Travis Hafner has an .833 OPS, and he's having a down year. And there are lots of other hitters on this team.

So, what do the Indians need to do? I don't think they really need to do much; in my mind, they're one of the top two teams in the game (side-by-side with the Red Sox and slightly ahead of the Tigers). But their bullpen could use a little help. They've been mentioned in talks about Eric Gagne, but Gagne has an odd partial no-trade clause that reportedly includes the Indians. That doesn't mean a deal is impossible, but it makes it a little harder to pull off. I haven't heard any other specific names, but I'd imagine they'd be in the hunt for almost any other reliever on the market, as they have a fairly good stash of prospects to deal from.

Detroit: The Tigers have played better than I had expected, but they're not really playing above their talent level - they're just a better team than I thought they were. Unlike the Indians, the Tigers have actually been fairly mediocre at home, but have baseball's second-best road record (24-15, second to the Red Sox). Baseball Analysts today put up a better overview of the Tigers than I could ever write, so I'll just direct you there. Magglio Ordonez is somewhat randomly putting up MVP-caliber numbers; his 1.122 OPS is the best in baseball. Everyone else is hitting, too, though I'm not sure Curtis Granderson can slug .569 all year. First base seems to be the lone problem area, as Sean Casey is barely servicable offensively for a first baseman. The Detroit rotation has been excellent all year; we all know about Justin Verlander, but Jeremy Bonderman is also great, and the rest of the rotation has been solid. The bullpen, considered a strength at the beginning of the year, now seems like a problem area; closer Todd Jones' ERA is approaching 6, and Joel Zumaya is on the DL.

The Tigers also don't have many holes to fill, and I'm guessing they mostly look for bullpen help as well. They've kicked the tires on Gagne also, as dozens of teams will probably do, but I don't expect a match there. They're planning on trying to deal Mike Maroth to an NL team once Kenny Rogers returns from the DL; Maroth could be a very solid back-of-the-rotation starter there, and they could probably get some relief help in return. They may look at Tampa Bay's Al Reyes, but he probably won't be traded.

Minnesota: The Twins are my favorite team, but even I could see they were going to finish third in the division this year. They just don't quite have the lineup depth to match the Indians' and Tigers'. Reigning AL MVP Justin Morneau is as good as usual, and Torii Hunter is playing out of his mind in his contract year, but there hasn't been much else outside of Michael Cuddyer. Joe Mauer missed more than a month of the season due to injury, and they just don't have reliable hitters in other positions (i.e., Nick Punto and his .288 slugging percentage). The Twins are one of only three or four contenders that doesn't need any bullpen help; they're perfectly content with Pat Neshek, Juan Rincon, Glen Perkins, and Joe Nathan. Johan Santana is, well, Johan Santana, and Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva have been decent in the #2 and #3 spots. The back of the rotation has been a disaster, as Terry Ryan (one of the game's best GMs) inexplicably decided Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz were the guys to fill those holes at the beginning of the season. Predictably, both guys were gone by June, but their combined 6.18 ERA has already done enough damage. Kevin Slowey seems set as their #4 starter, but Scott Baker might not be in the rotation much longer; it's probably only a matter of time now before Matt Garza gets the call up from Rochester.

The Twins don't really need to do much at the deadline - they most likely won't win anything this year, but there are very few teams with a better future (although, unfortunately, the Indians probably do within their division). They certainly would like a third baseman, but they probably won't find anything they like - Mike Lowell is too expensive, and apparently they aren't getting Ty Wigginton from the D-Rays. They could go the other way and deal off some veterans, such as Luis Castillo, but I wouldn't expect that either.

Chicago: No team is being watched more interestingly than the White Sox. They're a very disappointing 10 games under .500, although most statheads could have predicted that they wouldn't be in contention for very long. Jim Thome's really the only one who has been hitting, and he missed a pretty good portion of the season. Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye are struggling, and there isn't enough talent in the rest of the lineup to make up for it. Their rotation has actually been good, with Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland each owning ERAs under 4 and Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras each under 5, but they're too far behind to go anywhere at this point.

But the White Sox have been in the middle of practically every rumor out there. Both Buerhle and Dye are prime trade candidates; Kenny Williams is not a shy GM, so they will probably not be in Chicago by the time August comes around. Also, Williams has somewhat of a history of dealing long before the deadline; he dealt for Freddy Garcia in June a couple years back to get an extra month out of him. So you could see a Buerhle trade very soon, although it could just as likely be July 31st. The Mets have been the most-rumored destination, although those talks have died down somewhat recently. The Cardinals and Mariners are also possible trade partners for Buerhle, and today Jayson Stark mentioned the Braves as a place he could very likely end up. Dye is probably going to be harder to move, given his slow start, but there will still be plenty of interested teams out there; the Padres seem to be popping up a lot in Dye discussion. The White Sox's relievers aren't great, but someone might go after Mike MacDougal.

Royals: Do I really have to write about the Royals? Here's the good news: Catcher John Buck is hitting, hyped rookie Alex Gordon seems to (finally) be starting to hit a little, and Gil Meche's 3.21 ERA makes Dayton Moore's 5 yr/55-mill investment actually look wise. Here's the bad news: Everything else. This team is at least three years away from contending for a playoff spot, and they're in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.

There aren't really any fixes for the Royals on the horizon, unless they can petition Bud Selig to move them to the NL Central. They need to stop giving Mike Sweeny at-bats and install Billy Butler as the new DH; Butler has remarkably poor fielding skills, but he can hit as well as any young prospect out there. There aren't really any trade rumors concerning the Royals, mainly because they don't really have any players that anybody wants. Things don't really look good for KC baseball...

News of the Day: Barrett Traded

Michael Barrett is no longer a Chicago Cub; he was traded along with some cash to the Padres today for backup catcher Rob Bowen and an outfield prospect, Kyler Burke. Barrett was obviously traded for his inability to get along with pitchers, having fights with Carlos Zambrano and Rich Hill just this month. And I'm sure his .307 OBP didn't really help his cause, either.

Offensively, Barrett does still have some value. Barrett put up a terrific .307/.368/.517 line last year, and he probably can turn things around despite his slow start. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system thought he would post a .834 OPS, exatly 100 points better than he's doing right now. PETCO Park isn't the best place for him to boost his raw numbers, but overall his bat is still useful. His glove...not so much. Barrett is certainly one of the five worst defensive catchers in the game right now, and he probably has an argument to be #1. Apparently Barrett will get most of the starts behind the plate for the Padres, though they may get frustrated with his defense fairly soon.

Chicago now has three catchers; Bowen, Koyie Hill, and Henry Blanco (currently on the DL). None of these three are very good options; it won't really matter much who they'll play there. Blanco and Bowen are both very good defensively but mediocre at best at the plate.

Here's what MLB Trade Rumors had to say about Burke:

Burke, 19, was drafted 35th overall out of high school last year based on his huge power potential and athleticism. He hasn't shown anything against pro pitching yet. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says Burke has an "enormous ceiling" with a strong right field arm. This is an upside play by Jim Hendry - Burke could be a star or a complete bust.

Overall, I'm not sure who to give the edge to in this trade...I think the Padres come out ahead in terms of talent, but the Cubs have to be very happy to get a prospect with Burke's upside, given that they were obviously unhappy with Barrett in the clubhouse.

By the way, I never mentioned this earlier...but Chone Figgins hit a walk-off triple to give the Angels a win to cap his 6-for-6 game against the Astros. Think about it - how hard is it to hit a walk-off triple? You have to hit the ball in a place where it's a stand-up triple and you have to reach third base before the runner on first crosses home. I guess the other way you could do it is by hitting a triple, then scoring the winning run on a bad throw to third by the outfielder. Either way, it seems like it should be very rare.

Well, Jayson Stark answered that question in today's blog (the first time I've ever gotten my name into a Useless Info article!) and the answer is, it isn't as rare as you'd think.

But the question we did get -- from two loyal readers (Scott Sukenick and Kevin Whitaker) -- was this: How rare is a walkoff triple?

Well, theoretically, it is tough to hit one. So we checked. But it turns out it isn't as rare as you'd think. We found a bunch of them in the way-back machine -- and nine others just in the last decade (four by the Twins alone). Here are the five most recent before Figgins did it:

Grady Sizemore (versus Ambiorix Burgos) on Aug. 11, 2006
Lew Ford (versus Justin Duchscherer) on Aug. 3, 2005
Quinton McCracken (versus Todd Jones) on July 18, 2005
Jim Edmonds (versus Scott Service) on Sept. 17, 2004
Marquis Grissom (versus Matt Mantei) on May 27, 2003

Wow. I would have certainly expected that it would be much rarer than that. But that's what statistics are for...

News of the Day: Perlazzo fired

The big baseball news of the day is that Sam Perlozzo, formerly the manager of the Orioles, got the ax this morning. Bullpen coach Dave Trembley takes over in the interim as the O's try to find a replacement. Joe Girardi's name has come up in a number of places, though some say he's more interested in a high-profile job such as the Cubs or the Yankees. He appears to be the O's #1 target; if he rejects their offer, I don't know which direction they will go.

I really don't know if Perlozzo deserved to be fired or not. The Orioles have not done well under Perlozzo's watch, and they don't really have that much hope for the future. They just aren't very talented, and they don't get enough out of the talent they do have. The biggest problem this year has been the bullpen, although that is one area in which the manager does have some control. Still, there are just no competent arms out there, which is very surprising given the amount of money and time the Orioles spent trying to improve it over this past offseason. They really don't have any hope at this point, so firing Perlozzo certainly doesn't do any harm, but I'm not sure a lot of good is coming out of it, either. There are major problems in this organization, starting at the top with Peter Angelos. I have a tough time seeing this team being competitive under Angelos's watch.

One thing that I do know is that one of the reasons pitching coach Leo Mazzone came to Baltimore was that he was very good friends with Perlozzo. I'm not sure, but I think I read that Mazzone's contract expires after this season. He certainly hasn't had the same success in Baltimore as he did in Atlanta, but I would imagine there would still be quite a few teams who would want Mazzone as their pitching coach.

The other news seems to be dominated by trade talk. On Mike and Mike this morning, Buster Olney mentioned a possible trade between the White Sox and Mets: Mark Buerhle for Lastings Milledge. Buerhle becomes a free agent after the season, but he fills the Mets' immediate need for starting pitching. Milledge still seems poised to be a major-league outfielder in the near future, though he doesn't seem as likely to be a star as he used to be. This does look like a good deal for both teams, though I can't help but think the White Sox might ask for a bit more in return; Buerhle isn't really any more than a #3 starter right now, even in the NL, but they might be able to get more value for him than Milledge, whose stock has dropped a lot since this time last year.

Apparently the Yankees are interested in Shea Hillenbrand, though this doesn't really make sense to anybody. For one thing, Hillenbrand is one of the more flammable personalities in the game, as he is possibly most notable for being cut by the Blue Jays last year for criticizing the front office. For another thing, they already have someone just like Hillenbrand.

Hillenbrand's three-year (2004-2006) splits:

vs LHP: .328/.363/.514 (BA/OBP/SLG)
vs RHP: .280/.323/.433

Josh Phelps's three-year splits:

vs LHP: .288/.343/.551
vs RHP: .236/.293/.378

Hillenbrand would be a bit of an upgrade against righties, but still not very good. A better option for the Yankees would be someone like Carlos Pena or Rich Aurilia.

A follow-up on Justin Verlander and some info on Brewers phenom Yovani Gallardo tomorrow...

Around the Horn: AL East

Around the Horn goes through all the teams in a certain division, talking about what they've done right, what they've done wrong, and what they need to do to get better. Usually I'll get to about two divisions a week. Today: the AL East.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox were the best team in baseball through May, starting their season 36-15. But they've cooled off considerably since then, dropping 9 of their last 14 and losing almost half of their lead on the Yankees. If you're a Sox fan, don't get too worried - Coolstandings.com still gives them an 80% chance of winning the division, and Baseball Prospectus is even more optimistic. Their hitting has been very solid; people are saying Ortiz is having a down year, but that's just not true - his HR numbers are down a bit, but he's still OPSing over 1.000. Youkilis and Lowell having All-Star seasons; they're both slugging over .500. You'd expect more than 8 homers out of Manny so far, but his numbers are still solid: .293/.394/.461 (BA, OBP, SLG). J.D. Drew isn't hitting at all - just a .230 batting average and a putrid .340 slugging percentage - but he's still walking a lot, which is a sign that he'll turn things around soon. Dustin Pedroia's been everything he was supposed to be at second base; despite relatively mediocre power numbers, he owns a good .390 OBP. The pitching is very solid as well; Josh Beckett's 9-1 start has been a little overrated, as he has *only* a 3.39 ERA, but he's been a great pitcher. Aside from Julian Tavarez (5.25) - who will stop getting starts once Jon Lester returns - the rest of the Sox starters all have ERAs of 4.52 or lower. Paplebon's been terrific, and reliever Hideki Okajima - who was brought in mainly to ease Dice-K's transition to America - has been outstanding, giving up just four runs in more than 30 innings.

The two problem areas for Boston have been center field and shortstop. Julio Lugo is hitting just .212, and although he has 18 steals, he's not really contributing anything of value offensively for the Sox in either the on-base (.270) or the power (.316) departments. He's actually been a decent hitter at Fenway, but away from home he's OPSing a historically abysmal .447. Crisp has been even worse - he's following a very disappointing 2006 campaign with an even more disappointing season this year. To be fair, Crisp has been very good defensively in center field. As for Lugo, I haven't heard anything, but he isn't above average in any meaningful fielding statistic.

What are the fixes? They could use a little middle relief help, but so could almost every team; it's not a particular concern of the Red Sox. I wouldn't expect a whole lot out of Lugo this year (or any time in the future), but he should be better than this, and the Sox can't really do much else at short with Lugo signed for the next four years for $36 million. As far as Crisp goes...Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA projected him for a .310 BA this year, but given how poorly he's hit over the past season and a half, I don't see him getting anywhere near that. Still, with the offense they're getting from the other seven positions and the fact that there aren't a whole lot of center fielders avaliable to get this summer, I think they're best just sticking with Crisp and hoping he heats up. Jacoby Ellisbury is one of the Sox's best center fielders, and he will be the starter in 2008, but I don't think he's ready to come up soon (as others have suggested), at least not until much later in the season.

New York Yankees: Although you wouldn't believe it from the media coverage, a lot has gone right for the Yankees. Jorge Posada's OPS is almost 1.000, something I never would have thought possible at the beginning of the season. Jeter and Matsui are both hitting over .300. They're getting pretty consistant offense out of all nine positions, except maybe first base. And, of course, they have that A-Rod guy. Yeah, I'd take a .680 slugging percentage and 25 homers on my team, too. They've won their last 9 games to move back above .500 and to close the gap to 7.5 games behind the Red Sox. Pettite and Wang both have ERAs under 3.50. And their bullpen - although thin - has been pretty competent; Rivera, Proctor, Myers, and Bruney all have thrown well so far, although a couple of their arms may fall off by August if their starters don't start going deeper into games (which they have, during this winning streak).

The worst thing to happen to the Yankees this year has been luck. They gave too many starts to Kei Igawa, and Mussina hasn't pitched well, but the other problems with their pitching have all been injury-related - every starter except Pettite has missed some time. But the biggest problem has been luck in another form - wins versus performance. Their Pythagorean Record says they should have 38 wins so far, while they're actually just 33-31. (For the many of you out there not familiar with Pythagorean Records, the basic premise is that a team's run differential is a better indicator of how well they have actually played than their win-loss record; therefore, their Pythagorean record - based off their run differential - is a better predictor of future performance). So the Yankees' resurgence has been primarily a correction of the bad luck they had earlier in the season.

I'm not really sure what the fixes are for the Yankees; like I said, the best way for them to improve is to just be patient and wait for their luck to balance out. I'm not really sure there are any fixes out there for their rotation - Roger Clemens is getting himself into shape, and Phil Hughes is coming back sometime later in the summer. The one area they could improve is first base - Josh Phelps can hit lefties, but he needs a platoon partner; Miguel Cairo won't cut it (and Mientkeywizecjeakcz isn't much better). They aren't really a candidate for the top first basemen on the trading block, namely Mark Teixeria. There were rumors of a Bobby Abreu-for-Jermaine Dye trade, which doesn't really make a whole lot of sense for either team, but those died quickly. I've seen Todd Helton mentioned, but I dn't really think the two teams could work out a deal. There'll be someone the Yankees go after this summer, but I don't really know who it might be.

Toronto Blue Jays: I'm actually kind of surprised that this team has a .500 record; they haven't had much good news. Troy Glaus has been playing really well since returning from a wrist injury (especially against lefties - a ridiculous 1.322 OPS vs LHP), but at this point, he may be most valuable to the Blue Jays through a trade. Alex Rios and Aaron Hill are having good seasons, but they're pretty much the only standouts on a mediocre roster. Vernon Wells isn't doing much to earn his new $126 million contract, with just a .246 BA thus far. And their pitching staff has been completely decimated by injuries; star closer B.J. Ryan is done for the season, and although Roy Halladay has been pitching for most of the season, he hasn't been doing it well; he owns a startlingly mediocre 4.28 ERA, and his K rate is down. Their bullpen has actually been exceptional, making the loss of Ryan much easier, but their pitching staff has not had nearly as much success. A.J. Burnett has a respectable 4.00 ERA, and Dustin McGowan is improving, but most of the other starters have numbers in the fives.

With a bad rotation and a mediocre lineup, the Jays are probably sellers at the trade deadline. They probably won't give up many of their good players, as they can probably contend next year with an upgrade or two, but I do wonder if they might move a reliever or two. They've been shopping Tomo Ohka and Josh Towers, but that's a bit like going to a car show and offering to sell your 10-year-old broken tricycle. Glaus could fetch a pretty penny in a trade, and if the right deal comes along, they might do it.

Tampa Bay: As usual, the Devil Rays are sellers in the trade market, although the prospects of a major deal are probably slim. However, this year offers something new for Devil Rays fans - hope. B.J. Upton is having a stellar season at the plate - although his high K rate suggests that his numbers may decline soon - and they have other talented position players, such as Carl Crawford, Delmon Young (who will come around soon, I promise), and Japanese import Akinori Iwamura. And, for the first time in a long time, the D-Rays have some promising pitching - James Shields, Andy Sonnasnstine, and Scott Kazmir have all showed promise, though the latter has yet to pitch at the ace level he was projected to. Al Reyes has been one of the game's best closers through two months as well. By the way, the Devil Rays demonstrate the flip side of Pythagorean Records (see the Red Sox section for explanation) - the Rays have a respectable 29-35 record, but their run differential says they should only have about 25 wins. So it is likely that their record will drop even more from what they have.

The D-Rays look like they will contend for a playoff berth by 2009 or '10, but they could use some infield prospects and some more pitching prospects. They'd love to move talented outfielders Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes, but neither has any trade value at the moment, due to injuries and off-the-field problems, respectively. They'll probably try to move Reyes and hot-hitting first baseman Carlos Pena, and Ty Wigginton could be a servicable third baseman for a team such as the Twins.

Baltimore Orioles: Unlike the Devil Rays, the Orioles have actually played significantly better than their record would indicate - they are eight games below .500, but they have scored basically as many runs as they have allowed, so one would expect them to have about a .500 record. However, they still shouldn't play well enough to be contenders from here on out. There isn't a single player on their roster with an OPS above .800, which isn't a good sign. Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, and Nick Markakis will hit, but probably not enough to bring this below-average lineup into shape. Their starting pitching has been pretty good - Erik Bedard seems to be thriving under Leo Mazzone, and he will probably become a top-15 pitcher in baseball within a year or two. Steve Trachsel has an ERA under 4.00; he could definitely get traded. Daniel Cabrera has lots of talent, but typically doesn't get much out of it - his 5.16 ERA isn't far off his career norm. Their bullpen has been very disappointing. Closer Chris Ray has been very inconsistant all year, and none of the other relievers have done much better.

The Orioles are also sellers this year, though they aren't far off from contending. Roberts and Tejada both have a couple years left in their prime, Bedard is maturing into an ace, and Markakis is only 23. They could definitely use some bullpen help, but that's probably best left to the offseason and free agency. I'd expect that you see the requisite Miguel Tejada rumors (especially with the Angels), but I would doubt that he's going anywhere. Trachsel could definitely go somewhere, but as MLB Trade Rumors points out, his ERA should rise soon. I'm not exactly sure who the Orioles would target in a trade - they'd love to have young guys with potential that can play in the big leagues right now, but teams don't like to give away those kinds of assets.