Clearing the Bases: Best team in baseball?

Clearing the Bases: going through some of the most notable links from the past week...

Buster Olney had this interesting nugget of information in a recent blog:

By the way, I e-mailed this question to a number of talent evaluators, general managers, scouts, other executives and players: Who is the best team in baseball? Got back 20 responses within a 12-hour period.
Here's the breakdown:
Detroit Tigers -- 11
Boston Red Sox -- 6
Los Angeles Angels -- 3

That's pretty interesting. No mention of the Indians? I think they're right up there with the Tigers and Red Sox, and possibly a bit ahead of the Angels. I'm not surprised that there are no NL teams on the list, though...

A message to the media: Don't steal from blogs, especially when the stories are made-up...

A proposal to fix the HR Derby that I'm sure we'll all support…

American League pitchers, take note: Tony Pena doesn't want your charity (via Rob Neyer's blog)

Deadspin, with this great take on the All-Star game fiasco: "As tends to be the case with La Russa anymore, he's so busy thinking about how he's three steps ahead of everyone else that he walks smack dab into a pole."

Baseball Prospectus' All-Star Game recap…

THT with an analytical (you know, actually involving research) look at the Buehrle signing…

Braves reliever Wilfredo Ledezma is stuck in Venezuala, thanks to an unfortunate laundry accident…

An in-depth look at the two-horse NL Central race.

Random Video of the Week: I really don't think these kids are eight years old, but still, this football highlight video is impressive. By the way, that #20 sure can block…

MLB Midseason, Part III - Second Half Preview

Tony La Russa "apologized" for his All-Star game blunder, but it still didn't make any sense. What he said was that he should have hit Pujols for Rowand "because it's an exhibition, and that's what the fans wanted to see" (paraphrasing). But the implication there is that, if it had been a regular-seasn game, he would have done exactly what he did, which was leave the best hitter in baseball on the bench while a career league-average hitter makes the third out with the bases loaded. There were four times that inning when Pujols should have batted, in my opinion; first, he should have hit for the pitcher instead of Dimitri Young; second, he probably should have batted for Derrek Lee (this one is debatable, though, because Lee is almost as good as Pujols and this would have limited the NL's flexibility); third, he should have hit for Orlando Hudson; and finally, he absolutely had to hit for Rowand. I think Deadspin had the best take on the game: "As tends to be the case with La Russa anymore, he's so busy thinking about how he's three steps ahead of everyone else that he walks smack dab into a pole."

One more note from the All-Star game - I still haven't gotten an answer as to what was up with Billy Wagner. Wagner's fastball usually touches triple digits, enabling him to post a ridiculous 11.95 K/9 for his career. But on Tuesday, his fastball was at just 95, including the one that V-Mart took deep for the eventual game-winning homer. When I get a chance, I'll look through his recent outings and see if this is a problem for Wagner or if he just wasn't using his best stuff.

All that said, let's preview the division and wild card races for the second half of the year:

AL East: Look, the Red Sox have this won, so there's no use wasting any more time on that. They're 20 games above .500, and their run differential backs it up, so there's no reason to expect their performance to change. Plus, they've had a couple people performing below expectations (I'm looking at you, Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo), so it's not like all their players are having career years. There's just no way the Sox lose the division, unless an asteroid levels the team jet sometime in August. Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay are all below .500, and they all suck; no need to waste more words there. The Yankees are the really interesting case. I'm anything but a Yankee fan, but the Yankees are far from done, despite what many people would like you to believe. I don't really care about their history; when I look at that team, I see a team that's been really, really unlucky. Their record is just .500, but their run differential is that of a 50-36 team. Plus, they've suffered tons of injuries to their pitching staff and their outfield. I know the popular thing to do right now is to pile on the Yankees, but there's no reason they can't play at least .600 ball from here on out. That would put them at 90 wins, which still probably isn't enough. But give them a little luck, and they could definitely get to 93-95. The AL's really tough this year, with a lot of really good teams, and it's very possible that 95 wins is good enough for the WIld Card. And, if that isn't enough, the Yankees' first 28 games out of the break are all against teams currently below .500. Don't believe my random speculation? CoolStandings.com gives them a 17% chance of making the playoffs, and Baseball Prospectus puts the odds at 23%. Sure, those odds aren't great, but they're much better than most people would lead you to believe.

AL Central: Best division in baseball? Well, the bottom two teams are very bad (Chicago and KC), but Minnesota is a good team, and Cleveland and Detroit are two of the top three teams in baseball (see below). Ultimately, I don't think the Twins have a shot - they're already seven games back, and they just aren't good enough to overcome that deficit. Starting Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz instead of their more talented youngsters certainly hurt, but this team wasn't going to make the playoffs this year anyways. Morneau, Mauer, Hunter, and Cuddyer give them a solid middle of the lineup, but the rest of their position players aren't good at all. So this one is a two-horse race between the Indians and Tigers. The loser should still get the wild-card, but they will have to hold off the Yankees and possibly the Mariners, if they keep their pace up. I would expect both teams to make the playoffs. Detroit's run differential is much better (their 514 runs scored are easily the best in baseball, despite playing in a big park; the Indians are second, with 471, and the Yankees are in third with 463), but I'm really not sure their offense can keep this up - Magglio Ordonez is playing way over his head, Curtis Granderson hasn't proven he can keep this up for a full year and his high strikeout rate combined with his low walk rate is troubling, and a lot of their other players are aging veterans who may not be able to keep up their performance for a full season. Their pitching should contnue to be strong and maybe even better as Kenny Rogers returns, although I'm still not sold on Verlander staying healthy and strong for a full season, and I don't know that rookie Andrew Miller can succeed his second time through the majors. For some reason, I've really taken a liking to the Indians over the last couple years, so I find myself being a little biased here, but I'm taking the Tribe to win the division. This team is filled with offensive stars; Hafner has been playing below his potential, but is still getting on base 40% of the time, rady Sizemore and Victor Martinez are great, and the rest of the lineup is filled with solid hitters. C.C. Sabathia is one of the ten best pitchers in the game, Fausto Carmona has been a pleasant surprise, and the uncharitable Paul Byrd has been effective (six total walks this year). I'd be lying if I said I was confident in their bullpen, but the Tigers' pen has some problems, too. I do think the loser wins the Wild Card, though again I'm not counting the Yankees out.

AL West: This is the Angels all the way. Seattle's only two games back, so you certainly can't count them out, though they've been very lucky this year. They've barely scored more runs than they've allowed, and they've hit extremely well in the clutch (not typically a repeatable ability) also. You can make a good case that the Mariners will be in it to the end, but I'm not buying it. Oakland certainly has the potential to improve, but they're 9.5 games back, and the Angels aren't going anywhere. The Angels' pitching is solid, their lineup is solid, and their bullpen is the best in the game...it's hard to pinpoint any weaknesses here. I'm not sure I trust their bats enough to win three playoff series, but they're certainly among the elite teams in the game.

NL East: Unfortunately, the Mets haven't played as well as we thought they would before the season. Fortunately (for them), neither have the Braves or Phillies. The standings right now are oddly symmetrical; the Mets are 10 games above .500, the Braves are 5 games above .500, the Phillies are right at .500, the Marlins are five games below .500, but the Nationals ruin the trend by being 16 games below .500. I don't know...I still think the Mets win the division, but nothing would surprise me much. The Phillies are still only five games back despite the fact that their pitchers not named Cole Hamels have been terrible, but even though I would expect their pitching to get better, Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand are playing significantly above their pre-2007 levels. I don't really know what to make of the Braves...if Andrew Jones and Brian McCann can turn things around, they'll certainly stay in contention, but I'm just not sure they have enough to contend (John Smoltz and Tim Hudson have had minor injury problems this year, too). The Braves will be right in the mix with the NL West teams for the wild-card, but I think they'll end up a couple games short.

NL Central: The Cardinals are done. Is everybody with me here? Because I've heard a couple people saying they're in contention, and they're not. They're 7.5 games back, Milwaukee isn't going to collapse, and they just don't have any great players other than Pujols, Carpenter (injured), and Chris Duncan (who mashes righties, but can't hit lefties). The Cubs and Brewers are the only playoff contenders in this division, and although the Cubs aren't bad, I fully expect the Brewers to take this division fairly easily. Their lineup's good, but their pitching's even better - Jeff Suppan has the highest ERA of anybody who's started a game, at 5.00. (By the way, can we stop calling the Brewers a "surprise"? Anyone who had a brainin their head knew the Brewers or maybe the Cubs were going to win the division at the start of the season). The Cubs' pitching has been incredibly surprising - Marquis, Lilly, Hill, and Zambrano all have ERAs in the threes - but I don't think they'll keep it up. The Astros have a nice nucleus (Oswalt, Pence, Lee, Berkman, Lidge) but don't have anything around it. The Pirates have to be pleased with the starting pitching they've gotten from Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny, but that's not a good team. The Reds are going to end up wasting Ken Griffey's last years and Adam Dunn's prime years, as they're not a good team now and they've got nothing in the farm system besides Jay Bruce.

NL West: The toughest of the six divisions. The Padres have to be the favorite, seeing as they've given up just 298 runs, more than fifty fewer than anybody else in baseball (a somewhat deceiving figure, as they play their home games in spacious PETCO Park, but their pitching is great nonetheless), and their lineup is solid if not spectacular. The Dodgers are just a game back, and they're finally starting to give playing time to their youngsters, such as Matt Kemp and James Loney, something they should have done in April. The Diamondbacks have possibly even more young talent, although most of them haven't played particularly well thus far; they're still in the hunt at 3.5 games back, though. And you can't yet count out the Rockies, 5.5 games back. I'm taking the Padres to win the division and the D-Backs to win the Wild Card, but nothing would really surprise me in the NL.

Power Rankings (sort of):

There's really no reason to do power rankings 1-30, because they would have no purpose. But I'll give you my view of the teams in playoff contention in groups, because there's not much separating each team within each group.

Group 1: Boston, Detroit, Cleveland

These are the three best teams in baseball, in my mind. All three teams have great hitting and great pitching. If I had to order them, I'd probably go Boston-Cleveland-Detroit, but it's really close. No major flaws on any of the teams, though Detroit and Cleveland could use a little bullpen help.

Group 2: Anaheim

Or whatever they want to be called, anyways. I just don't think they're quite at the level of the first three teams; their bullpen is excellent, but their pitching is somewhat inconsistent and I'm not 100% sold on their offense.

Group 3: New York Mets, Milwaukee, San Diego, New York Yankees

Hello, NL! No, I didn't forget about you...you're just not as good as the AL is, at least at the top. I think all three of the NL teams are pretty much even...I'll probably go SD-Mil-NY, but there's not a meaningful difference between the three teams. And go ahead and ridicule me for putting the Yankees here if you want...but are you telling me you'd really take one of the lower teams in a series over the Yankees? If you do, you're crazy.

Group 4: Minnesota, Atlanta, Arizona, Los Angeles

The Twins don't have a chance at contending in the loaded AL, but they'd be a good team in the NL. Atlanta, Arizona, and LA will be fighting for the wild card, and any of them could win it. Chicago probably could belong in this group as well; I'm just not sold at all on their pitching, and they're not a good defensive club.

Live Blog: All-Star Game

7:59: Live from San Francisco My Living Room, it's the 2007 All-Star Game on Fox!

Well, I told you righties had an advantage in the Derby last night...for some reason, lots of people thought lefties would do better. Still, that was pretty boring...the HR Derby has entered the zone of the Dunk Contest where it just really isn't interesting anymore. Some people have suggested making it a "skills competition", including stuff like running, throwing, etc.; I think that would generate interest for a couple years, but then slip back into oblivion. I'm not sure if there's any real way to "fix" the Derby; people just aren't as interested in things like that anymore. Fortunately, the game itself is still relevant, at least more so than any other All-Star game.

I like live-blogging, so I'm doing this for the All-Star game today; the game doesn't really matter, regardless of what MLB wants you to think, but I'm blogging it anyways, mainly to make fun of Tim McCarver. Hope you stick around.

8:01: By the way, I'm doing this chronologically top-to-bottom; lots of people live-blog bottom-to-top, which I don't like because it makes it harder to read afterwards.

8:02: First of many Barry Bonds mentions, though it comes after our first Eric Byrnes mention (sitting in a kayak with his dog in McCovey Cove, working for Fox. He should be on the field, but whatever...)

8:03: My Prediction: AL wins, 8-3. As I mentioned yesterday, the AL's pitching is just ridiculous. Think about it - Haren goes two innings, then they can throw Beckett, Verlander, Sabathia, Santana, Putz, Papelbon, and K-Rod, and none of them have to go more than one inning. How can the NL score?

8:06: This game isn't even going to start until probably 8:30. Wouldn't it be so much better to play this game at 6:00 on a weekend? I understand that the owners probably don't want to give up their weekend games, but this is supposed to be the sport's showcase. As a kid, I could only watch one or two innings...I usually taped the rest, but it wasn't the same...

8:12: Can we get Homer Simpson to replace Tim McCarver as Fox's number one analyst? He's smarter, although I would probably laugh at him less...

8:14: Nate Silver's got a live chat going over at BP, and Deadspin's live-blogging this thing as well...mine will be better, though. I'll promise you that.

8:18: Do the managers usually bring all their coaches to the All-Star game? Because Jim Leyland brought like six Tigers coaches. Maybe this is normal; I honestly can't remember.

8:21: Never mind, La Russa's got his whole gang there too. Hey, how do you think Eric Byrnes feels hearing Orlando Hudson and Jose Valverde being introduced as All-Stars while he's sitting in his kayak?

8:22: Okay, here's the matchup I want to see: C.C. Sabathia pitching to Miguel Cabrera, sponsered by Krispy Kreme. And I want John Kruk announcing.

8:23: Holy crap, Chris Young is tall. Did you know he went to Princeton?

8:25: AL Lineup: Ichiro, Jeter, Papi, A-Rod, Vlad, Magglio, Pudge, Polanco, Haren. Can anyone tell me why there isn't always a DH in the All-Star game? Who the hell wants to see Dan Haren hitting here? He'll get pinch-hit for anyways, but still...

8:26: NL Lineup: Reyes, Bonds, Beltran, Griffey, Wright, Fielder, Martin, Utley, Peavy. La Russa's mismanagement of this roster continues...what the hell is Beltran doing hitting third? He shouldn't even be on the team. Fielder should be third or fourth, and Utley should be near the top of the order too...certainly not hitting eighth...

8:37: A tribute to Willy Mays. For some reason, I thought they were playing a baseball game today. Silly me. There's no way I'm making it to the end of this...

8:42: Apparently next year's All-Star Game is in Colorado. Bring your Kleenex...it's going to be a moving Dante Bichette tribute, everybody!

8:45: Tim McCarver's first sentence: "What a brilliant tribute for a guy who exhibited every facet of the game was superb." That's word-for-word, unless I didn't hear him right...

8:52: And finally, we're about ready to start. I'm like Roger Clemens at this point - you can't count on me to go more than six innings.

8:54: We're underway...Ichiro with a groundball single through the second-base hole.

8:57: Peavy's throwing his sinking fastball, reading in at 92-93...Jeter swung through one, then hit a routine two-hopper into a 6-4-3 double play. Yeah, he's clutch. Ichiro didn't even slide into second...shows you what this game means to these players...

8:58: Joe Buck just said that one of the reasons Ortiz isn't hitting well is that Manny isn't giving him "his usual protection" behind him. First off, Manny's been fine...and secondly, how would his not doing well hurt Ortiz? People still aren't pitching around Ortiz, and even i they id, that wouldn't really hurt his numbers...

8:59: We have an error on a first baseman on a fairly rouine play...but shockingly, it isn't Ortiz making the error. Ortiz hit one right at Utley, but Fielder missed the throw.

9:01: A-Rod hits one hard into the hole...Wright makes the diving play, in plenty of time to throw Ortiz out at second. Inning over. This is our country.

9:03: Simpsons 2, Mellencamp 1.

9:04: Reyes with a base hit up the middle. Was Polanco shifted to the hole, or does he not have that much range? That ball was 10 feet to the right of second-base...

9:05: Question of the day: Will Reyes steal, even though Bonds is hitting?

9:06: Question answered. Reyes swipes second, a few feet ahead of Pudge's throw...

9:07: Bonds pops out to right field...that ball carried, though. Looked like Polanco was gonna have it all the way, but Vlad had to take over.

9:08: Haren's at 93 mph, and he's all over the corners...until he leaves one right over the plate. Beltran lines a shot into the stands, but foul.

9:10: Beltran swings through a 1-2 heater...I think Haren threw six fastballs to Beltran. That can't be right.

9:12: Griffey with a two-hopper up the middle...25 of the 30 starting shortstops in baseball get to that ball, but Jeter doesn't. Reyes scores; 1-0 NL.

9:13: Wright hits one right at Jeter...at least he can get to that one. NL up 1-0 after the first.

9:16: Penny in for Peavy...gets up 0-2 on Vlad quickly. He throws Vlad a third straight fastball, but down and out of the zone; Vlad breaks his bat and grounds out to Reyes.

9:19: Magglio flys out to right, and Pudge grounds out to short...still 1-0 NL. Penny threw seven pitches that inning; I wonder if he'll be back out there for the third.

9:28: 2 out, runner on 1st, Miguel Cabrera pinch-hitting for Penny. Cabrera had better stay in the game, or else La Russa's got some 'splaining to do...

9:30: Cabrera whiffs, and it's still 1-0 after two.

9:33: Penny's out after a tiring seven-pitch outing, and Ben Sheets is in. Sheets was just 6-7 last year, and his ERA wasn't outstanding, but he had a ridiculous 116:11 K/BB ratio. Polanco grounds out to short to start the inning.

9:34: Manny pinch-hitting, flys out to Griffey in right. We haven't even seen a three-ball count yet...at least this game is going quickly...(actually, I think Peavy went 3-2 to Ortiz)

9:36: Ichiro swings at a pitch at his ankles and bloops it into left for a single. Bonds has no range, obviously, but nobody would have gotten to that.

9:37: Jeter grounds one up the middle, for another single. Ken Rosenthal reports Ichiro and the M's are close to a 5 yr/$90 million deal, if I heard him right.

9:38: Ortiz rips a Sheets fastball, but it's right at Griffey. Three outs.

9:42: Reyes puts some wicked sidespin on his hit...it gets by A-Rod, and Reyes ends up with a 170-foot double. Will he try to steal third, with Bonds up?

9:44: Bonds starts to square around to bunt on the first pitch...I'm assuming that was a joke. Later in the count, he gets one up in the zone and drives it to left...Ordonez grabs it on the warning track. So close. Kinda curious why Reyes didn't tag up there...

9:45: Beltran grounds out to second...I still don't understand why he was hitting third. Reyes could've scored there if he was on third.

9:46: Leyland says he'll use Putz as his closer if the AL takes a lead into the ninth. Putz is having a great year...but why don't you choose K-Rod? He's been great his entire career.

9:47: Beckett sends Griffey down swinging with a nice fastball at the knees. We're seeing lots of fastballs today, all in the 94-95 range, and not many hits. Still 1-0 NL.

9:50: Mellencamp pulls even with the Simpsons, 2-2. This is our country.

9:51: Soriano's in left; Bonds' day is done. Cole Hamels is pitching for the NL. A-Rod grounds a changeup through the hole for a single. Reyes steals secon, pretty easily...got a good jump on the lefty Hamels.

9:53: Vlad grounds to short. One out.

9:55: 2 outs...Pudge singles to right, but A-Rod is out by 15 feet at home. He wasn't running at all down the third-base line...I'm wondering if his hamstring is all right...

9:58: A-Rod's still at third, so I guess his leg's okay. Why the hell did La Russa bring in Cabrera just as a pinch-hitter? Is Wright going to play the whole game at third? Is he going to play Freddy Sanchez at third? Cabrera's one of the three best hitters in the league...why give him only one at-bat?

9:59: Beckett's still pitching...Wright works a 3-2 count, then grounds to Brian Roberts at second.

10:01: Beckett is working behind a little more than you'd like to...Fielder drills a 2-0 pitch to center, but Ichiro is there to make the play. Two away.

10:02: Didn't think we'd hear the s-word mentioned tonight, but Ken Rosenthal brings up the very valid point that 50-70% of baseball was using steroids, so we can't really criticize Bonds that much for using them. Buck then goes on a minute-long rant that the chemists are still ahead of the testers, so people are still cheating by using stuff like HGH. Meanwhile, Beckett goes to another three-ball count but strikes out Russell Martin, without so much as a mention from the announcers. We're already through four innings, and it's still 1-0.

10:07: Chris Young is pitching, and Derrek Lee is at first. Tim McCarver points out that Chris Young has a .82 ERA at home, but doesn't mention that PETCO is one of the two or three most pitcher-friendly parks. I mean, it's still impressive, but a lot of the viewers don't know their baseball stadiums very well...how about at least mentioning that it's helped him?

10:09: And we have our first walk of the day...Young walks Brian Roberts on six pitches.

10:10: Posada batting for Beckett...presumably he'll stay in to catch, as Pudge has already caught four innings. He flys out to center, one out.

10:11: Hey, we haven't seen Chris Byrnes in a while...he throws in a baseball for his dog to get, except the dog goes swimming away in the other directions. So that's what happened to the Great Outdoor Games!

10:12: Ichiro with a shot to the right field wall...boy, he's been hot. It takes a really weird bounce off the wall, and goes the opposite way of how it looked like it would...Ichiro circles the bases for an inside-the-parker, and Roberts scores as well. 2-1 AL, and if they win, Ichiro's easily the MVP.

10:14: Jeter flys out to center, and then Morneau lines out to Griffey. But the AL retakes the lead off Chris Young, and now they're in control.

10:18: Rich Garces C.C. Sabathia is pitching for the AL, and Carlos Guillen is in for Captain Intangibles at short. Utley grounds to second for the first out.

10:19: Soriano flys out to Crawford in left. Not to belabor this point...but how does the NL score the rest of the way? They'll face Sabathia, Santana, Papelbon, K-Rod, and Putz from here on out.

10:20: Reyes with a gapper to left-center...but Hunter makes a nice play to cut it off and hold him to a single. Lee grounds out to the pitcher to end the inning.

10:21: Two pieces of information from the interview with La Russa (I know, I couldn't believe we actually learned something either)...First, Cabrera's injury meant that he could only pinch-hit. Second, La Russa says he'll keep Pujols as a utility guy to bring in if the game goes to extras, because he can play anywhere. Now, Pujols is a great player, and I bet he could do all right for himself anywhere on the field. At the same time, he's pretty slow...do you really want him at second base? His glove would be okay, but he'd have no range. And, more importantly, Pujols is the best hitter in the game...don't you want to guarantee that he'll get at least one at-bat, preferably two? I really don't like the way La Russa managed this ame, from the beginning of the process on.

10:24: A-Rod flies out to left. The surprising Francisco Cordero is pitching...he leads the NL in saves.

10:25: Vlad flies out to right on a pitch at his ankles. I'm kinda surprised Griffey is still out there; he's getting up there in years and the NL has a bunch of outfielders.

10:28: Only about 43,000 people in the stadium...must be a small park.

10:29: We now have two homers so far in the game...and they've come courtesy of Ichiro and Carl Crawford. Ths pitch was a slider, a little below the belt, and Crawford got all of it, taking it out to right-center, about five rows up.

10:30: Guillen grounds out to Utley to end the inning. 3-1 AL.

10:33: Verlander in to pitch for the AL...I guess that means Papelbon won't pitch? Verlander goes 3-0 on Beltran, before giving up a triple on 3-1. Vlad kind of misplayed that...not easy to play right in this park, though. Griffey up, nobody out.

10:35: Griffey with a line drive to deep right...Vlad makes the catch, but even he can't throw out Beltran on that one. 3-2 AL, Griffey has both RBIs for the senior circuit and will likely be the MVP if the NL wins.

10:36: Velocity update: Verlander's last two pitches have been at 99, and he hits 100 on a fastball to Wright...he breaks his bat, but gets the ball into shallow center for a blop single. I'd guess that those readings are pretty legit; Verlander doesn't always throw this hard, but given that he's only going one inning, it would make sense he's giving it all he can.

10:37: Matt Holliday pinch-hitting, and I'd hope he stays in the game...he takes a real bad cut at a sick curveball, though, to make the count 0-2...

10:38: Holliday almost bites at two more curveballs, but checks his swing both times; the count goes to 3-2

10:39: Wright goes on the pitch, Holliday hits a one-hopper to first...Morneau knocks the ball down and gets the out at first. Two down, tying run on second.

10:40: Martin hits a shot to right, but it lands 10 feet foul. He follows it up with a popout to second; the AL dodges a bullet.

10:45: Takashi Saito on the mound, and a whole different team behind him...Hudson at second, Sanchez at third, Rowand in center, McCann catching, and Holliday moves to right.

10:46: Roberts hits a routine grounder to second, and there's one out. Jorge Posada next to bat...

10:48: Tim McCarver on Takashi Saito: "You look at the numbers on Saito, and one of the most important is his age...he's 37 years old. What a great story, to be waiting so long for this honor." (not quite verbatum, but close). Um...Saito just came to America last year, when he was signed by the Dodgers before the 2006 season. So, he's been waiting all of a year and a half. On a related note, here's a link you might want to check out...

10:50: Saito goes 1-2-3, and it's still 3-2 going into the bottom of the seventh. NL will likely have to score at least one run off of Santana/K-Rod/Putz...

10:51: I don't want to make it seem like I'm unpatriotic or anything...but can we do away with singing God Bless America before the seventh inning stretch at every baseball game? I'm not sure I really have a problem with it in this situation, but is it really necessary to do every game?

10:53: Take me out to the ballgame, take me out to the crowd...

10:55: Thanks to Coors Light for exposing a major need in our daily lives - the mouths of our beer cans are too small. But it's okay now, Coors Light has wide-mouthed cans, so you'll never have this problem again!

10:56: On the mound: Johan Santana. Carlos Lee hits a couple shots, but they both hook foul.

10:57: Santana fans Lee with a dirty changeup at his shoelaces. One out.

10:58: Santana gets ahead of Soriano 0-2, then gets him looking with a change right down the middle.

10:59: Reyes hits a slow roller to short; inning over. He's still 3-for-4, though I'd be kinda pissed if I was J.J. Hardy about not getting into the game. 3-2 AL heading into the eighth.

11:02: Simpsons take a 3-2 lead; Mellencamp is running out of time to catch up.

11:03: Billy Wagner in for the Mets; Mike Lowell leads off with a single.

11:03: Best stat of the game so far: 0 appearances by Scooter the Baseball.

11:04: Sanchez has a little trouble fielding a popup (he's playing out of position at third; he's played second pretty much exclusively this year), but sticks with it and makes a nice play.

11:05: Sizemore strikes out swinging on a pitch that almost hits him; apparently, it's the NL's first strikeout of the game. Weird.

11:06: What's up with Billy Wagner? His fastball was just clocked at 95...and then he throws another 95-mph fastball, and Victor Martinez takes him deep down the left field line. 5-2 AL, and it's very tough to see the NL winning this game. Wagner's fastball is usually right around triple digits; I don't know what happened to his velocity.

11:09: After seven and a half innings, it's AL 5, NL 2. The senior circuit had better get at least one here if they want any chance. Papelbon's coming into the game, which I think is strange...Leyland said he's using Putz in the ninth, so this means K-Rod isn't getting into the game at all. K-Rod is the best reliever in the AL...I don't know why you wouldn't use him...

11:13: Paplebon gets ahead 0-2 on D-Lee, but leaves one right up the middle...Lee bloops it into shallow center and gets on base.

11:14: Uh...why exactly did Fox choose now as the time for a Chase Utley "Player Profile"? He left the game two innings ago. It's not like you didn't have time before...

11:15: You know it's late in the game when Buck and McCarver are talking about dancing. Or maybe I'm hallucinating. Papelbon fans Orlando Hudson with a splitter in the dirt, but Lee steals second easily.

11:18: Trevor Hoffman arming up for the NL...Paplebon goes to 3-2 on Rowand as Lee takes third on a passed ball.

11:20: Rowand fans on some high cheese. NL could really use a hit by Sanchez here.

11:21: Sanchez swings first-pitch...and flys out to center. That sound you just heard was the town of Pittsburgh not caring. 5-2 AL going into the ninth.

11:26: Again, Buck mentions the Padres' terrific pitching without mentioning the ballpark they play in. Look, they might have the best pitching in the game...but it's ridiculous to say that the ballpark has absolutely nothing to do with it. I haven't looked at many park-adjusted pitching stats lately, so I don't know if their pitching is the best or not.

11:27: Tim McCarver just cracked himself up while saying that the difference between Hoffman's fastball and changeup is great. I have no idea why.

11:28: Posada with a two-out double off the wall in dead center. Torii Hunter will try to make it a four-run game.

11:33: Hunter grounds out to third. Last chance for the NL; they need three runs.

11:35: If Pujols doesn't bat this inning for the NL, I want Tony La Russa fired immediately. I'm not even kidding.

11:36: Holliday leads off for the NL, against J.J. Putz. Putz is a fine choice to close this game - he's been the best reliever in baseball this season - but I would've liked to see K-Rod get into the game at some point...

11:37: Putz gets ahead of Holliday 0-2, then throws a ball low and away. Comes back with a 95-mph heater up and out of the zone, and Holliday bites. Two more outs to go.

11:38: Brian McCann up...he's not hitting well this year. Nothing La Russa can do about it, though, since he's the only catcher left for the NL.

11:39: Putz gets McCann 1-2, and then gets him to pop out to short. Two down.

11:40: The pitcher's spot is up, so Pujols should pinch-hit, right? Wrong. For some reason, Tony La Russa sends Dimitri Young up to the plate. Ugh. Young's career OBP: .349. Pujols' career OBP: .418. If you make an out here, the game's over...you absolutely have to have your best hitter up right now.

11:43: Putz hits 98 on the gun, but Young fouls it off, to stay alive at 1-2. Pujols should be batting...

11:44: The NL gets a break...a slow roller into the hole, and Brian Roberts can't hang on. Young reaches first, though that still doesn't validate La Russa's decision.

11:44: Alfonso Soriano batting...if he gets on, it's J.J. Hardy.

11:45: Putz gets into a hole against Soriano...count goes to 3-1. There's nothing Soriano can do here more valuable than walking.

11:46: That's okay, too...Sorano goes yard right down the right-field line. Again, it really didn't matter whether Soriano walked there or homered; Hardy still has to score for these runs to matter anyways.

11:47: I wonder if K-Rod's warming up...this is Hardy's first at-bat of the game. Derrek Lee is on deck.

11:48: Fastball, 96 mph, outer half, for strike one...but then Putz misses with a slider. 2-1. K-Rod is warming up, by the way, and Valverde's getting warm for the NL.

11:49: Fastball away...3-1. Putz doesn't want to give up another homer, but he can't put the tying run on base.

11:50: Ball low...Hardy gets on first. Leyland's making the change, as he's taking out Putz and bringing in K-Rod. I thought K-Rod should have started the inning in the first place. Hardy's got below-average speed, by the way.

11:52: Do you bring in Pujols for Lee here? On one hand, it's not a huge advantage, and it limits your flexibility if you go to extras...but on the other hand, you have to agree that Pujols is the better hitter.

11:53: D-Lee hits a hard grouder down the line, right to Lowell (guarding the lines), but foul. 1-1 count.

11:54: Dirty curveball on 1-1, but Lee checks his swing...nice block by Posada to keep Hardy at first.

11:55: Great curve on the inner half...2-2. I wouldn't be surprised if he throws another one of those here.

11:55: Sure enough...but Lee lays off it. Full count, this means Hardy's running on the pitch.

11:56: Lee checks his swing on a curveball...didn't go! Tying run on second, winning run at first.

11:57: Orlando Hudson is still hitting...WHERE THE HELL IS PUJOLS! Hudson's not a bad player, and Pujols would be out of position in extra innings...but it's Albert F---ing Pujols! If the NL loses this game, La Russa will share a very big portion of the blame.

11:57: Three terrible pitches by K-Rod and he's behind 3-0. Is Okajima warming up? Aaron Rowand is on deck...Pujols could hit for him, too, and then move to a corner outfield spot if the game goes to extras.

11:58: K-Rod finally throws a strike to get to 3-1, but then another ball in the dirt. Three straight walks...Leyland can't really make a change, though.

11:59: Nope, Rowand's hitting. If the Mets lose the World Series in seven games because they didn't get home field advantage, he should start mailing death threats to La Russa. I'm not even joking here.

12:00: K-Rod gets strike one over...Rowand hits the second pitch...and flies out to right. Game over, the AL holds on to win, but not by much. Managers always get too much blame whenever their team loses, but La Russa deserves a ton of blame for his refusal to bat Pujols in this one. I'm not sticking around for the MVP presentation, but I assume it will be Ichiro. Thanks to everyone (anyone?) who was reading; it was fun.

MLB Midseason, Part II: All-Star Game Preview

I've got no other way to do this, so let's break down the respective All-Star rosters, position-by-position. It doesn't matter a whole lot who the starters are, since they figure to play five, six innings tops, so we'll consider all the players at a certain position here. I'll be live-blogging the game tonight, not because it really matters but just because I feel like it. (By the way, BP Unfiltered has a nice HR Derby live-blog going on right now...)

Catcher:

AL: Ivan Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez
NL: Russell Martin, Brian McCann

The NL has the edge for the first couple innings, as Martin is in the midst of a breakout season while Pudge shouldn't even be in San Francisco. But the backup advantage is easily towards the AL, as Posada and V-Mart are having great years. Neither plays defense that well (especially Martinez), but it's not like people steal a whole lot of bases in the All-Star game anyways, especially in the later innings. Offensively, Posada and Martinez have been stellar this season.

Edge: AL

First Base:

AL: David Ortiz, Justin Morneau
NL: Prince Fielder, Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols, Dimitri Young

I'm surprised the AL went with just two first basemen; I would have liked to see someone like Kevin Youkilis get on the team. The main value of most of the NL first basemen will be as pinch hitters; remember, the pitchers will be batting because the game's in an NL park, and nobody wants to see the pitchers hit, so we'll see a lot of pinch-hitters. Ortiz at first will be very interesting to watch, defensively; he hasn't played there in a while because he isn't good at it, so we'll see if his defense causes problems for the AL team. All these guys are solid hitters.

Edge: NL

Second Base:

AL: Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts
NL: Chase Utley, Orlando Hudson, Freddy Sanchez

The NL gets the edge here just because of Utley, who is the only great second baseman in the game today. Roberts should be starting for the AL; Polanco can field well and hits for a high average, but those are his only skills. I really have absolutely no clue why the NL carried three second basemen and two shortstops; personally, I would have gone with four shortstops and Utley as the lone second baseman, and played someone like Edgar Renteria at second. Sanchez has no business whatsoever being on this team; there were two Pirate pitchers having much, much better years in Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny.

Edge: NL

Third Base:

AL: Alex Rodrigez, Mike Lowell
NL: David Wright, Miguel Cabrera

A-Rod and Cabrera are stars, and Wright and Lowell are definitely the lesser players. I'd take A-Rod over Cabrera, and I'd take Wright over Lowell, so this one's very even. Cabrera's a top-three hitter in the NL, by the way, although some people don't know it yet.

Shortstop:

AL: Derek Jeter, Carlos Guillen, Michael Young
NL: Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy

As I said earlier, it's just criminal that there are only two shortstops on the NL roster; Hanley Ramirez, Edgar Renteria, and Jimmy Rollins all have the right to be angry about this. The position in the NL is much deeper, but I actually think the edge goes to the AL here - both Jeter and Guillen are OPSing above .900. Young really doesn't add much to the team; he's probably an late-inning pinch-hitter for one of the pitchers.

Slight Edge: AL

Outfield:

AL: Vlad Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki, Magglio Ordonez, Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rios, Grady Sizemore
NL: Carlos Beltran, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Matt Holliday, Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand, Alfonso Soriano

I would have rather seen Curtis Granderson on the team instead of Manny, but there's not a big difference there. The NL has a couple guys who don't belong - I could do without Beltran, Rowand, or Lee, and instead have someone like Eric Byrnes or Hunter Pence. There's talent on both sides, but I'm definitely taking the AL guys here...there are just so many great players in that outfield.

Edge: AL

Pitchers:

AL: Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, Bobby Jenks, John Lackey, Gil Meche, Jonathan Papelbon, J.J. Putz, Francisco Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, Hideki Okajima
NL: Jake Peavy, Francisco Cordero, Cole Hamels, Trevor Hoffman, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Ben Sheets, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Brandon Webb, Chris Young

Well, the NL got Brian Fuentes off the team, but this staff still seems somewhat mediocre. John Maine is still off the team, and while they made the right decision in putting guys like Webb and Oswalt on the team (guys who have been great their entire career, even if they aren't putting up outstanding numbers this year), there are still a lot of hittable pitchers on that team, like Valverde and Saito. And this is the strength of the AL team...that is a murderer's row of pitchers. Imagine this...Haren goes two innings, then they can throw Beckett, Verlander, Sabathia, Santana, Putz, Papelbon, and K-Rod, and none of them have to go more than one inning. How do you score runs off that?

Big Edge: AL

Overall, I'm picking the AL to win, probably by a comfortable margin. Their offense is at least as good, and their pitching is a whole lot better. Predicting the outcome of one individual game is so luck-based that it is pretty much worthless, but I'll say the AL wins 8-3.

MLB Midseason, Part I: HR Derby Preview

Arguably the most interesting part of All-Star weekend to hardcore baseball fans is the futures game, featuring the best minor leaguers. I didn't get a chance to watch it, because I had a game yesterday evening, but Justin Upton (D-Backs CF prospect, brother of B.J. Upton) was the biggest star, showing why he's absolutely ready for the Show. Here's a link to Nate Silver's live-blog of the game.

Anyways, tonight is the Home Run Derby, which may be the most popular part of the All-Star weekend. Of course, trying to predict what will happen in the Derby is impossible and completely based on luck, but I'll try to do it anyways. But first, a quick tangent explaining the so-called HR Derby curse...

Bobby Abreu won the Derby in 2005, hitting an amazing 41 taters for the contest. Before the Derby, Abreu had hit 18 home runs. After the Derby, Abreu managed just six more homers for the year. Some people pointed to this as evidence that Abreu "messed up his swing" in the Derby, or that participating was a bad thing for Abreu. Some other previous winners had seen their production drop off also, so people began to think that it was bad for people to be in the Derby. Ryan Howard hit 30 homers in the second half last year, but that was labeled an "exception". I know of Yankee fans that were glad that A-Rod declined to take part in the Derby, because they feared he might mess up his swing also.

So, is this Derby curse real? In a word, no. I will explain this through a simple example:

Player A, Player B, and Player C are all "true" 30-HR hitters; that is, they will all hit exactly 30 homeruns every year. (Obviously, this is impossible in real life, but this is just a hypothetical example.) In one particular year, here's how they hit their homers:

Player A hits 23 homers in the first half of the season, and hits just 7 in the second half.

Player B hits 15 homers in the first half and 15 in the second half.

Player C hits just 7 homers in the first half, but 23 after.

Guess which one gets invited to the Homerun Derby? Only player A would be there, because he has 23 homeruns. So he hits only 7 homers after, and people say it's because the Derby messed up his swing, when it actually is just that he was doing what he was supposed to do.

To summarize, almost all the people selected to participate in the Derby are hitting more homers than they were expected to, so it makes sense that they'd hit less after the break. It doesn't go beyond that.

Okay, then...now, who will win the Derby tonight? The contestants are: Vlad Guerrero, Justin Morneau, Magglio Ordonez, and Alex Rios from the AL, and Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, and the newly added Matt Holliday (subbed for the injured Miguel Cabrera) from the NL.

First of all, in my opinion, you have to pick a righty. It is only 309 feet down the right-field line, but right-center is as deep as 421 feet, and that wall is really high...home runs will just die out there. The lefties certainly add to the drama, as they are the ones who will be hitting balls into the water, but I think the righties are much more likely to win. If you really want to pick a lefty, you may want to go with a guy like Morneau, who hits a lot of homers to the opposite field. So, first of all, Morneau, Howard, and Fielder are eliminated.

After that, there's no real key to picking things. There's a trend that I identified last year, and that is that underrated players tend to win the Derby. In 2003, Garrett Anderson was underrated (that was back when he was actually good), and he won the thing. In 2004, Miguel Tejada was still somewhat underrated (not really anymore), and he won. And in 2005, Abreu was very underrated, although obviously getting traded to New York last year helped him get more than his due. Last year, Howard didn't really fit the bill; he wasn't thought of as a superstar, but he did win the ROY in 2005.

So, of the five righties, who is the most underrated? Pujols and Vlad have been superstars for years; it would be ridiculous to say he's underrated. Magglio is getting some love this year, and he really hasn't been that good the last couple years. Alex Rios is a little underrated, but he's also not that good. The obvious choice here is Matt Holliday - the average baseball fan may know his name, but probably doesn't know who he is. Holliday is much more of a batting-average-type hitter than a homerun hitter, but I'm still picking him. My next choice is Vlad, by the way.

I'll have an All-Star game preview up later today, if I can.

Clearing the Bases: Bloggers can make a difference!

Clearing the Bases: going through some of the most notable links from the past week...

Hey, all you bloggers out there...you can make a difference! Felix Hernandez has turned things around, partly due to the blog U.S.S. Mariner...

Breaking News: The Mark Buehrle saga is over…he re-signs with the White Sox for 4 yrs/$56 million.

TSOB has a short post on a strange Joe Torre quote regarding Derek Jeter's defense, which I mainly include because of this great excerpt: "…This is rich, by the way, the idea that anything good that Derek Jeter does could possibly go undetected. When Jeter kicks a rock, there are three stories in the New York papers about how he's cleaning up the streets."

Mr. Irrelevant gives you the worst all-stars of the 21st century (don't know how Mike Williams was left off, though).

MLB: Pissed off at ESPN?

Some information about pitchers being able to go deep into games: Striking out batters doesn't make you less likely to throw more innings…but walking batters does.

Uh…who's gonna play the outfield for the White Sox next year?

A timely article on Pat Burrell, the player I keep defending...

Keith Law breaks down the Futures Game rosters, and then describes the game's standouts and disappointments (both articles insider-only)…Here's a Futures Game blog that's open to the public…

Some great analysis on Tim Hudson, using some info I wish I had access to…

Here's a funny story about a made-up quote and a writer who forgot to check his source thoroughly...

If this describes you, you shouldn't be reading this blog…

Random Video of the Week #1: Stephon Marbury goes crazy (make sure to watch the last two minutes)...

Random Video of the Week #2: Public Service Announcement: Don't drink and dunk

Random Video of the Week #3: If you know any tennis players, please, don't let them rap. It's for the good of society.

Random Video of the Week #4: Soccer? This is cool, trust me.

Random Video of the Week #5: Combining our last two subjects...that's right, it's indoor soccer players rapping! This is the train wreck to end all train wrecks. Please, watch this.

All-Star Reaction

All-Star rosters were released on Sunday...here's some belated reaction to the selections. Here are the links to the AL and NL rosters, and because the starters didn't really change in the last week of the voting, my plan for filling out the rosters still works as well.

The American League roster was very well-done, in my opinion. Orlando Cabrera has been named as the biggest snub, but I'm really not sure he should be there, given that there just aren't enough roster spots due to teams like Tampa Bay and Texas not having any real All-Stars. Michael Young is fine from Texas; I thought Mark Teixeira was going to be back from his injury soon, in which case he would have been a much better choice, but Young is still a good player, although he's not showing a whole lot of it this year. All the pitchers who should be on the team are there, although I would have personally gone with Mark Buehrle over Bobby Jenks from Chicago. The only reserve choice that I don't get is Manny Ramirez; he was voted in by the players more on reputation than on his performance this year. I would have rather seen Kevin Youkilis or Curtis Granderson (both of whom are more deserving than Gary Sheffield, by the way), but that's kind of splitting hairs.

MLB decided to go with all pitchers for their 32nd man ballots, which is kind of strange; the nominees are Hideki Okajima, Jeremy Bonderman, Pat Neshek, Kelvim Escobar, and Roy Halladay. Halladay is the most talented of the five, but is also having the worst year; Bonderman and Escobar are both okay, but certainly not great. I'm personally voting for Neshek, but there's not a whole lot of difference between him and Okajima. Okajima leads the voting right now, and he's going to win it - he gets the vote of both Red Sox Nation and the nation of Japan. (Although Neshek does have the blogger's vote...) If MLB had let some position players in on the voting, Granderson, Sheffield, Youkilis, and Orlando Cabrera would have all been good candidates.

The NL roster, to put it bluntly, is a disaster. Usually the difference between players on the roster and the snubs is small enough that it doesn't make any practical difference, but I believe the NL is actually much weaker than they could be. If they had the right players, I believe their offense could give the AL a good game, even though the AL's pitching is better, but with the roster that they actually have, I can't see them winning this game. I really can't. Here's a list of the bad selections by La Russa and the players:

Brian Fuentes is the obvious one. Did La Russa forget about Matt Holliday and think he still needed someone from the Rockies? He lost the closer job on Sunday, the day the rosters were announced. Now, La Russa probably had to make these decisions a few days before, when Fuentes was still somewhat solidly in the closer role, but he still doesn't deserve this. And there's really no way Jose Valverde belongs on the team, either. I know Tony La Russa loves his relievers, but this is overkill.

Aaron Rowand has no business being on this team either. Look, I know he's "scrappy" (read: white), but he's probably not one of the top ten outfielders in the NL. There's no way he should be on the team ahead of Eric Byrnes. There were other Phillies that had a much better resume - Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Here's Keith Law's take (insider-only):

The NL's shortstop crop right now is tremendous. Jose Reyes is a star and a deserving starter. J.J. Hardy is emerging as a star and has every reason to be on this team. Edgar Renteria is having his second straight superb year for Atlanta. Hanley Ramirez is having a monster year -- we'll come back to him in a moment -- after winning the Rookie of the Year award last year. But other than Reyes, there's probably not an NL shortstop with a better combination of current-year performance, track record and defensive prowess than Jimmy Rollins. The fact that only two shortstops are on the NL roster is ridiculous, and the exclusion of Rollins only makes it more so.

But the fact that Rollins was snubbed while Aaron Rowand was added makes it worse. Rowand has reached 500 at-bats just once in his career. He's a part-time player who just happens to be hitting 30 points over his career average and who gets on "SportsCenter" because he runs into walls. Players like Rowand do not belong on an All-Star Game roster unless it's to fill the requirement that each team get one representative -- and the Phillies already had Chase Utley on the team. He probably never will make another All-Star team because he's not an All-Star-caliber player.

And just to put it in some perspective, manager Tony La Russa chose the scrappy outfielder having an out-of-character fluke year while omitting the star shortstop having his typical year -- and then MLB added insult to injury by leaving that star shortstop off the fan ballot for the final spot.

Freddy Sanchez is another really strange selection. There were already four middle infielders on the team, and Sanchez is definitely not one of the top ten middle infielders in the NL. Ian Snell would have been a much better representative of the Pirates. If La Russa still wants middle infielders, take another shortstop - Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, and Edgar Renteria all have great cases. I personally would have taken one of these shortstops over Orlando Hudson, too, and let them play second.

Carlos Lee was voted in by the players despite the fact that he really doesn't deserve it. Hunter Pence is a better outfielder from the Astros, and Roy Oswalt is one of the four most talented pitchers in the NL. Lee's having a pretty good year, but not All-Star quality. There are some other strange pitching selections, mostly along the lines of too many relievers; I'm not really sure Takashi Saito belongs on the team, and I already mentioned Fuentes and Valverde. The result? Deserving starting pitchers such as Oswalt, Chris Young and John Maine get left off the team.

Here are the NL final vote candidates: Chris Young, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Tom Gorzelanny, and Carlos Zambrano. Those are some great pitchers, all left off so that Brian Fuentes can face one hitter in the seventh inning. Big Z is pitching really well of late, but he was so bad at the beginning of the season that I don't feel ashamed about not voting for him. Gorzelanny isn't even the most deserving pitcher on his own team; Ian Snell has slightly better numbers across the board. Of the other three, Webb and Oswalt are more talented, but I have to vote for Young's 2.41 ERA, even if he is pitching in PETCO park half the time. And how was John Maine not on this list? There are a bunch of great position players who could make this list as well, if MLB hadn't decided to go all pitchers; Rollins, Ramirez, Renteria, Howard, Byrnes, Adam Dunn, Aramis Ramirez, Todd Helton...Rollins is the only one of these players not currently in the top 20 in NL OPS.

I don't really know how it happened, but this NL roster is terrible. I'll look into this more closely as we hit the weekend, but right now I'm taking the AL, something like 9-2.

Clearing the Bases: Hargrove Out

Clearing the Bases: going through some of the most notable links from the past week...

If you told me at the beginning of the season, if you told me that Mike Hargrove would not be the manager at the All-Star break, I would have had no trouble believing you. But I would have expected the Mariners to be 15 games below .500, and for Hargrove to be fired along with GM Bill Bavasi. But instead, the M's are 12 games above .500, and Hargrove is quitting, saying he's just burned out. Really strange timing on this; the M's are on an eight-game winning streak, and they're playing better than anybody expected. Rob Neyer had a good article on this yesterday (insider-only, so I'll give you an excerpt:)

Maybe this is the cynic in me, but I can't help but wonder whether there's something we haven't been told yet. I worry that Hargrove's been diagnosed with some serious illness. All we can do is hope that's not the case. Then there's the possibility that he wants to quit while he's ahead. Hargrove's past six teams -- four in Baltimore, two in Seattle -- finished in fourth place, most of them with records well below .500.

But Hargrove's 2007 Mariners are riding high. They're in second place with a 44-33 record. Can they maintain this pace, though? The Mariners have the fourth-best record in the American League, but only the eighth-best run differential. Maybe this particular Mariner knows when it's time to jump ship.

I do get what Neyer's saying - because the M's are playing so far above their head, they're likely to fall back in the next month or so; then, when some team wants to fill their manager job in the upcoming future (Baltimore?), they'll look at the candidates and say, "Hey, the Mariners were great under Hargrove, then they collapsed after he left...maybe he's the one for us!" I'm not saying that's what Hargrove is doing, because that seems really unlikely, but it's at least a possiblity.

Here's U.S.S Mariner's take on the situation...

Remembering Rod Beck.

Here are the All-Star game rosters, for the American League and the National League...

Um...Brian Fuentes? What the hell?

A Brewers prospect threw a perfect game in the minors...

A compelling case for the White Sox to keep Mark Buehrle, although apparently it's not going to happen...

A great article on former Dodgers GM and future GM somewhere else Paul DePodesta.

On Tuesday, we saw the best Joe Morgan chat ever...

Random Video of the Week: Heckling Stephen A. Smith at the NBA Draft. Seriously, watch this. You will not be disappointed.

Filling out the All-Star Rosters...

I already went through who deserves to start the all-star game earlier in the week, but let's take things one step further and fill out the entire 32-team rosters for each league. Obviously, you have to take into account the rule that each team must have at least one representative in the All-Star game. Yes, this is a dumb and outdated rule (my opinion: it should be required that the host team has somebody on the roster, but that's it), but it does make things a little more interesting for people like me who try to create the roster.

American League:

MLB hasn't released yet who the starters will be; for some reason, they're waiting to announce the entire team on a special show today on TBS that will attract probably 13 viewers (although I'll probably be among them). So, according to the most recent results (from a couple days before voting ended), here's what the starting lineup would look like:

C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: David Ortiz
2B: Placido Polanco
3B: Alex Rodriguez
SS: Derek Jeter
OF: Vlad Guerrero
OF: Magglio Ordonez
OF: Ichiro Suzuki

Those could have changed by the end of the voting, though the only positions in which the voting was close were catcher and outfield. Anyways, that leaves 24 more spots to fill...

Step 1: Pick the best pitchers: Usually, teams will carry 11-12 pitchers on their ASG rosters. I'll leave a couple of those slots open, for now, but here are the pitchers who absolutely have to be on the all-star roster:

Dan Haren leads all of baseball with a 1.91 ERA; he's just been dominating. He's the starter for the AL. Johan Santana's record is only 9-6, but he's gotten no run support; his 2.76 ERA is third in the AL, and he's second in the league in strikeouts. You can't have an all-star team without Santana. (Here's a link to something I wrote on Santana yesterday.) Justin Verlander's 3.18 ERA is great, and his no-hitter was the pitching performance of the year so far. C.C. Sabathia leads the league in wins (12-2), and his 116:17 K/BB ratio is just insane. The Angels' John Lackey is often underrated, but he's got 10 wins and an ERA under three. And as far as relievers go...Seattle's J.J. Putz has a 0.95 ERA, a WHIP of 0.61, and is tied for the league lead with 23 saves. Francisco Rodriguez also has 23 saves; he's probably the best closer in all of baseball at this point. And the Twins' Pat Neshek is as dominating as a middle reliever can be; he has a 1.37 ERA and is holding opposing batters to a .124 batting average. That's eight pitchers; we'll fill out the rest later.

Step 2: Select all the deserving backups: Aside from the starters, who absolutely has to be on the roster? We don't have to fill out all the backup slots yet, but we have to take all the players we can't possibly leave off.

We need at least two catchers on the roster, probably three. Fortunately, there are two very deserving backups after Pudge: Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez. Both of them would be better choices to start than Pudge is (and Posada may have passed Pudge in the voting), but they both have OPSes above .900 and both absolutely have to be on the team. At first, I can't leave reigning MVP Justin Morneau and his 20 homers off the roster. Kevin Youkilis is having a career year as well; his .416 OBP gets him onto the team also. There aren't really any other second or third basemen having spectacular seasons, but Carlos Guillen has to be Jeter's backup at short; Guillen really should be the starter, but voters like Jeter's pinstripes more than they like Guillen's 100-point edge in slugging percentage. Curtis Granderson is having a breakout year, and Torii Hunter is playing great in his contract year; their .900 OPSes are certainly worthy of roster sports, and they both play center field. There are some other outfielders who could certainly make the team, but let's stop for now.

Step 3: Fulfill the "one player from every team" requirement: So far, we have 23 players on the roster, and still no representatives from the following teams: Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Kansas City, Texas.

Toronto: Roy Halladay would normally make the team, but he just hasn't been himself this year; I considered Aaron Hill for his versatiity, but in the end, you have to go with Alex Rios, who is having a career year (17 HR, .522 SLG).
Baltimore: Jeremy Guthrie is having a fantastic year, but he was in the bullpen for the first month of the season, and besides, we still have only one second baseman. Brian Roberts is the pick.
Tampa Bay: With apologies to James Shields, A-Rod is still the team's only third baseman, and I'm starting to run low on roster spots. I'm taking B.J. Upton and playing him at third for a couple innings; he played some third last year, although he was moved off the position because he sucked there defensively.
Chicago: Since nobody besides Jim Thome is hitting at all, we've pretty much got to take the best pitcher on this team. Surprisingly enough, that pitcher is none other than Mark Buehrle, who has a 3.33 ERA and a somewhat respectable 5.94 K/9 (not good, but at least okay). By the way,, Jon Garland somehow has a 3.36 ERA despite striking out less than four batters every nine innings...don't bet on that to continue.
Kansas City: For once, the Royals actually have somebody somewhat deserving of an All-Star spot - starter Gil Meche, who has posted a 3.28 ERA and has some nice strikeout numbers.
Texas: We certainly aren't getting any pitchers here...trade bait Mark Teixeira easily deserves this spot, as he's hitting really well (.959 OPS). By the way, John Kruk seriously mentioned on Baseball Tonight last week that Sammy Sosa deserves the Rangers' spot. Sosa's OBP is .309, and he doesn't currently play a defensive position; he's hurting the Rangers, and he would certainly hurt an All-Star team.

Step 4: Fill out any open positions, get 31 players on the roster: We've got 29 players and 10 pitchers, so we should select one more pitcher and one more position player. For the pitcher, I'm going with Jonathan Papelbon - he hasn't been spectacular, but he's been very good, and relievers tend to be good choices because all the pitchers are in relief roles anyways. And one more position player...there aren't really any major holes to fill, so I'm going with Grady Sizemore - he's posted a .401 OBP hitting leadoff for the Indians, he has 23 steals, and he's a good defensive center fielder. You could make the case for another infielder here, though.

Step 5: Select five nominees for the fans' vote: For whatever reason, MLB decided that the fans need to be involved more, so they added this vote for the 32nd player on each team. Here are my five nominees:

Manny Ramirez, OF - .286/.385/.468 (BA/OBP/SLG)
Gary Sheffield, DH - .290/.401/.530
Orlando Cabrera, SS - .342/.380/.463
Casey Kotchman, 1B - .307/.382/.511
Josh Beckett, P - 3.07 ERA, 11-1

Of those five nominees, I'd probably choose Sheffield, and I'm guessing he would win (every Tigers player has done really well in the voting so far, and Beckett and Manny would split the Red Sox Nation votes).

National League:

Here's the starters, from the most recent voting:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Chase Utley
3B: David Wright
SS: Jose Reyes
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Ken Griffey Jr.
OF: Alfonso Soriano

Some of these (SS, OF, 3B) were close, though, so there might be a couple different players when the voting is released in a couple hours.

Step 1: Pick the best pitchers: My starter is Jake Peavy; he gets the because of his strikeout numbers. I can certainly see the case for Brad Penny, though - basically the same ERA, except he doesn't play half his games in spacious PETCO Park. Chris Young's numbers are also PETCO-inflated, but his 2.14 ERA is impressive regardless. John Maine has been a very pleasant surprise for the Mets, posting a 2.74 ERA. Cole Hamels' ERA is a little high (3.87), but he's 9-4 and is second to Peavy in strikeouts. Francisco Cordero has been outstanding in the closer role for Milwaukee; he leads baseball with 27 saves. Trevor Hoffman has to be on the team; the all-time saves leader has added 23 to his total this year, as well as a 2.03 ERA. And I'm putting Billy Wagner on the team as well - he only has 16 saves, but he's given up just seven earned runs this year (1.73 ERA).

Step 2: Select all the deserving backups: First base is absolutely loaded in the NL; Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard both have to be on the team. There are plenty of other great players at the position, but let's wait and see how the roster shakes out. Miguel Cabrera should be starting at third; if he doesn't beat out Wright in the voting, we'll make room for his .979 OPS as a backup. Shortstop in the NL is even more loaded; J.J. Hardy, Edgar Renteria, and Hanley Ramirez all really should be on the team. That's a lot of shortstops, but there really aren't any other deserving second basemen besides Utley; we'll play one of these guys (Renteria?) at second. It's tough to leave Jimmy Rollins off the team, too; we'll see if we can fit him in anywhere. I don't care if you don't like the guy, Barry Bonds absolutely deserves to get on the team - he gets on base literally more than half the time he bats (.513 OBP). His 1.112 OPS is second-best in all of baseball. And the game's in San Francisco. He absolutely has to be there. Matt Holliday is also having a breakout year; he and Bonds are the two best hitters in the league, but neither will be starting. And I'm not leaving Adam Dunn off the team, either; I know he hardly ever makes contact, but he walks enough, and when he does make contact, it usually goes a long way (23 HR so far).

Step 3: Fulfill the "one player from every team" requirement: Three teams with no representatives yet: Washington (duh), Pittsburgh (duh), Houston, Arizona

Washington: God, this team is awful. I guess you have to go with Dimitri Young, who has an un-Dimitri-Young-like .893 OPS, as he's pretty much the only good player on the Nationals.
Pittsburgh: Jason Bay's a good player, but he's not performing very well this year, and besides, there's some good pitching on this team. I'm going with Ian Snell, who has a 2.90 ERA and is striking out a bunch of hitters. Tom Gorzelanny is pitching really well, too, although his numbers are slightly worse than Snell's in pretty much every category.
Houston: I'd like to put Hunter Pence on the team, but he just hasn't quite had enough at-bats, and besides, we still need some more pitching. You can never go wrong with Roy Oswalt, who is having a solid year this year (7-5, 3.42). Carlos Lee's putting up good numbers as well.

Step 4: Fill out any open positions, get 31 players on the roster: Three empty roster spots at this point. We need another catcher, and unfortunately, there really aren't any other catchers who are even close to being All-Star worthy. I'll go with Brian McCann because he's more talented than he's shown this year, but McCann, Johnny Estrada, and Bengie Molina all have pretty much the same stats. We need another pitcher - I'll take John Smoltz and his 2.98 ERA. And I'd really love to get Rollins on the roster, but there aren't any center fielders on here besides Beltran. Do you really want to see an outfield with Holliday in center, Dunn in right, and Bonds in left if the game's close in the ninth? Me neither. So I have to take Eric Byrnes, who is putting together career-high numbers in a contract year - .878 OPS, 13 HR, 15 steals - and he's a plus defensively in center.

Step 5: Select five nominees for the fans' vote: Here are my five:

Jimmy Rollins, SS - .283/.329/.507
Hunter Pence, OF - .330/.358/.562
Derrek Lee, 1B - .340/.415/.502
Matt Cain, P - 2-9, 3.38 ERA
Derek Lowe, P - 8-7, 3.03 ERA

My vote would easily be Rollins, but the voting would probably be pretty close - Rollins, Pence, and Lee could all muster some support, the Dodgers have backed a lot of their players (Lowe), and Cain would be in his home park if he got voted in.