I didn't feel like writing anything over the weekend, so here are some random thoughts from the past couple days...
This is going all the way back to Thursday, but Roger Clemens had his worst start of his (short) season to this point in Colorado, giving up four runs in 4 1/3 innings. He struck out six and only walked one, but the two homers he allowed were the problem. I wouldn't be worried about this; I still think he ends up going something like 11-6 with an ERA in the low fours.
What I was more interested in was his splits; I noticed last time that he did poorly against lefties and when hitters put the first pitch into play. Well, hitters seemed to be more aggressive against Clemens this time, putting the first pitch in play three times in just over four innings, but it didn't help them a whole lot; they went just 1-for-3, with the lone hit being a Willy Tavares bunt single. (By the way, fast hitters have been taking advantage of Clemens' 44-year-old legs by bunting a lot off him; he's gonna have to get used to it, because it's not going to stop.) The lefties in the lineup - Kaz Matsui, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe - went a combined 2-for-6 with a walk; the righties were 5-for-14 with both homers, and that includes two at-bats by pitcher Rodrigo Lopez. Colorado's righties tend to be more dangerous than their lefties, however, as Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday are two of the best hitters in the league, and rookie Troy Tulowitzki is hitting very well.
In other follow-up news...Justin Verlander threw again Saturday, and had another really good outing - seven innings, only one earned run, earning him his ninth win of the season. That run came via a homer, which isn't great news; Verlander has been giving up an increasing number of home runs as the season has brogressed. His 11:2 K-BB ratio, however, is excellent news. He was under 100 pitches in his last outing, but was back up to 110 this weekend, which probably isn't good for the Tigers. The one thing I noticed after his no-hitter was that his first-pitch strike percentage had been decreasing throughout the season, causing me to wonder if he was hurt and to predict that he would either get hurt or lose his effectiveness, although he made me look dumb by throwing 17 of 28 first-pitch strikes in his next outing. On Saturday? 15 of 27. He wasn't very effective with his pitches, throwing more than four pitches per hitter, which still isn't a good sign; but it does seem that his first-pitch strike woes were an aberration and not a sign of anything important.
One more pitcher to follow up on: Yovani Gallardo. I wrote about his debut last week, and I was pretty impressed. Well, he actually pitched better yesterday, thrwoing seven innings of one-run ball, although he didn't get a win out of it. Gallardo had eight strikeouts to just two walks and five hits, and kept his pitch count under 100. I wasn't watching the whole game, and I can't find a comprehensive recap online, but from the highlights it seems that Gallardo was using his fastball and slider more instead of relying too heavily on his outstanding curve. His fastball was hitting 93, too, and it would be great if he could eventually get that up into the 95-96 range.
As the calendar turns towards July, trade talk obviously begins to heat up; the White Sox remain the most powerful team on the market. There are some new rumors out that, in addition to Mark Buerhle, Chicago might move some starters who are not free agents at the end of the year, including possibly Jose Contreras and Jon Garland. The Mets are very interested in Contreras, and if the White Sox actually can get Lastings Milledge in return for Contreras or a package centered around him, I think they should definitely do it; Contreras is 35 and not getting any younger, and his ERA+ has gone from 123 in 2005 to just 98 this year (an ERA+ of 100 is league-average).
Meanwhile, the Mets had been the favorite for Buerhle for a while, but on Thursday Jayson Stark said the Braves were the favorite. Then, over the weekend, it became the Red Sox. I wouldn't say it's likely that any team gets him at this point; there are plenty of interested teams, and it's going to take a while for things to sort themselves out. I will say that at this point it doesn't seem likely that he goes to the Mets; the Red Sox and Braves both have more to offer in the way of second-tier prospects, and the Mets have made it clear they aren't including Lastings Milledge in a deal for a three-month rental. The Red Sox don't really make sense as a destination, as they will have five good starters when Jon Lester comes back, but it's possible that Curt Schilling's injury is more serious than people initially thought.
Nobody really seems to know where the top hitters - Adam Dunn, Jermaine Dye, and Mark Teixeira - are going to end up. People around baseball seem to think it's very likely that Dunn gets traded, although I personally don't think he'll leave Cincinatti. Teixeira's been rumored to the Angels, though he doesn't help that lineup all that much, and Bill Stoneman is a relatively conservative GM. The Yankees have had interest, but they aren't going to give up what it takes to get him. The Dodgers seem to be the most likely trade partner at this time, as they have plenty of good young players, but I think Teixeira stays in Texas. He's not a free agent until after the 2008 season, so they'll probably have more success trying to deal him this winter. Dye seems to be the most likely hitter to be dealt, and the Padres seem to want him pretty badly, but teams aren't going to give up too much for him when he's only hitting .230.
Showing posts with label Roger Clemens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roger Clemens. Show all posts
June 25, 2007
June 17, 2007
Clemens vs. NY Mets
The Subway Series resumed on Friday with Roger Clemens pitching against Oliver Perez, and it was a tale of two teams going in different directions. The Yankees had won their past 9 games, while the Mets had dropped nine of their last 10. The Mets ended their slide and the Yankees' streak with a 2-0 victory, as Perez threw a gem. I was really interested to see how Clemens threw, however; this was his second start in the big leagues, with the first being a decent game against the Pirates (6 IP, 3 ER). Overall, you have to say that Clemens has been everything the Yankees hoped for thus far, although his throwing 6 1/3 innings of 2-run ball and getting hung with the loss was a flashback to his Houson days.
In particular, there were two numbers from his 2006 splits that stood out to me:
1. Clemens was exceptionally tough on righties last year, holding them to just a .185/.228/.286 (BA/OBP/SLG) line. But he was startlingly mediocre against lefties, allowing them to hit .254/.322/.368, still not great numbers but much better than lefties. This stat was particularly relevant to Friday's game, given that the Mets have arguably the best collection of left-handed hitters in all of baseball in Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Green, and Valentin. This should be as good a test as any to see if Clemens continues to pitch at his '06 splits.
2. Hitters hit very well off Clemens when the count was 2-0, which is to be expected; hitters in all of baseball hit best on 2-0. But the next best count for hitters against Clemens was 0-0 - when swinging first-pitch, hitters had a stellar .455 batting average and a .750 slugging percentage, in a somewhat significant sample size (44 AB). So I was curious to see if the Mets hitters would take advantage and swing at the first pitch more often, given that it's apparently easier to hit than the subsequent ones. This kind of makes sense - Clemens' fastball isn't as dominating as it was in his prime, but his splitter is still excellent; maybe he throws a lot of first-pitch fastballs and uses his splitter later in the count.
Anyways, I went back through the game (with help from MLB.TV) and looked at his pitches more in-depth. Here are some thoughts, in no particular order:
Regarding the first two splits I mentioned: The lefties in the lineup went 4-for-15, including a Reyes HR, while the righties were 3-for-12 (with two of those being Carlos Gomez bunt singles). Not really conclusive proof either way. Delgado had an awful game - three K's against Clemens, with another after he left - and the others didn't really seem to see the ball well either; Reyes was really the only one hitting well from either side of the plate. As for the other split: Only three players put the ball in play on the first pitch, and all three got hits (although, to be fair, one was a bunt) - Beltran's single in the first, Reyes' aforementioned homer in the fourth, and Gomez's bunt single in the seventh. Again, it seems the best strategy against Clemens is to take advantage of that first pitch. Clemens threw first pitch strikes to 15 of the 27 hitters he faced, and he threw fastballs to the majority of the hitters. By my count, the Mets only swung at six of these first pitches (and two were bunts!); they might have been able to score another run or two if they had been more aggressive. (By the way, in his debut against the Pirates, only one player put a first-pitch offering in play - Adam LaRoche, who hit an RBI single to center.)
Clemens' fastball is no longer a plus pitch in terms of velocity or movement, but he sure knows how to use it. His location on his fastball was excellent - almost everything was on the corners, and he didn't leave much up in the zone. His pitch topped out at 91, but it was consistantly in the 89-91 range, and he sets it up nicely with his splitter and slider. (Actually, the my9 radar gun said 97 once, but I'm pretty sure that was a misread. Their coverage actually sucked for this purpose; there were more than 20 pitches where they didn't show the velocity reading. Lesson learned...) His command was really good as well - 42 of his 67 fastballs were for strikes.
His splitter, on the other hand, is still probably one of the top ten or fifteen pitches in baseball, from any pitcher. He threw it 29 times, and only thre 9 balls; almost every pitch was in the lower third of the zone, as well. He throws his splitter much more to lefties than he does righties. Clemens did give up three hits off his splitter - a seeing-eye grounder by Reyes that scored Gomez, a one-hopper by Wright that would have been an out if Jeter had any range to his left, and Gomez's bunt single. If he keeps commanding this pitch this well - it usually read in the 84-86 range - he's going to remain a very useful pitcher.
His off-speed stuff really isn't very good at all any more. He throws his slider almost exclusively to righties, but didn't keep it in the zone very well. He tends to throw it pretty early in counts, instead of using it as an out pitch or a chase pitch. He only threw a handful of curveballs, mostly to lefties; he left this up in the zone occasionally, and put one belt-high and over the inner half to Reyes, who hit probably the farthest homer of his life. Again, he used this early in the count as well, mostly to keep hitters honest; he's basically a two-pitch pitcher to lefties now (although those pitches are pretty damned good).
Clemens is going to take some heat for allowing four stolen bases, and he does deserve some of it - he is kinda slow to the plate, and studies have shown that pitchers are just about as responsible as catchers for stolen bases that happen when they're on the mound. However, I think we now have to look at Posada as well - the Mets added another steal after Clemens left and stole five more bags on Saturday, so it's very possible Posada just doesn't have the arm he used to. Yes, the Mets are the best base-stealing team in baseball, but come on - 10 SBs in two games? That's really bad. (Not that I'm complaining - I have Reyes on both my fantasy teams...)
Julio Franco sure is patient...he only swung the bat four times, and he's walked nine times this year in only 45 at-bats. Too bad he can't really hit anymore...
Is the book on Carlos Gomez that he can't hit off-speed stuff? He sure saw a lot more junk than anybody else...
Clemens only walked one, by the way, and got 8 strikeouts; his control was that good throughout the game.
In particular, there were two numbers from his 2006 splits that stood out to me:
1. Clemens was exceptionally tough on righties last year, holding them to just a .185/.228/.286 (BA/OBP/SLG) line. But he was startlingly mediocre against lefties, allowing them to hit .254/.322/.368, still not great numbers but much better than lefties. This stat was particularly relevant to Friday's game, given that the Mets have arguably the best collection of left-handed hitters in all of baseball in Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Green, and Valentin. This should be as good a test as any to see if Clemens continues to pitch at his '06 splits.
2. Hitters hit very well off Clemens when the count was 2-0, which is to be expected; hitters in all of baseball hit best on 2-0. But the next best count for hitters against Clemens was 0-0 - when swinging first-pitch, hitters had a stellar .455 batting average and a .750 slugging percentage, in a somewhat significant sample size (44 AB). So I was curious to see if the Mets hitters would take advantage and swing at the first pitch more often, given that it's apparently easier to hit than the subsequent ones. This kind of makes sense - Clemens' fastball isn't as dominating as it was in his prime, but his splitter is still excellent; maybe he throws a lot of first-pitch fastballs and uses his splitter later in the count.
Anyways, I went back through the game (with help from MLB.TV) and looked at his pitches more in-depth. Here are some thoughts, in no particular order:
Regarding the first two splits I mentioned: The lefties in the lineup went 4-for-15, including a Reyes HR, while the righties were 3-for-12 (with two of those being Carlos Gomez bunt singles). Not really conclusive proof either way. Delgado had an awful game - three K's against Clemens, with another after he left - and the others didn't really seem to see the ball well either; Reyes was really the only one hitting well from either side of the plate. As for the other split: Only three players put the ball in play on the first pitch, and all three got hits (although, to be fair, one was a bunt) - Beltran's single in the first, Reyes' aforementioned homer in the fourth, and Gomez's bunt single in the seventh. Again, it seems the best strategy against Clemens is to take advantage of that first pitch. Clemens threw first pitch strikes to 15 of the 27 hitters he faced, and he threw fastballs to the majority of the hitters. By my count, the Mets only swung at six of these first pitches (and two were bunts!); they might have been able to score another run or two if they had been more aggressive. (By the way, in his debut against the Pirates, only one player put a first-pitch offering in play - Adam LaRoche, who hit an RBI single to center.)
Clemens' fastball is no longer a plus pitch in terms of velocity or movement, but he sure knows how to use it. His location on his fastball was excellent - almost everything was on the corners, and he didn't leave much up in the zone. His pitch topped out at 91, but it was consistantly in the 89-91 range, and he sets it up nicely with his splitter and slider. (Actually, the my9 radar gun said 97 once, but I'm pretty sure that was a misread. Their coverage actually sucked for this purpose; there were more than 20 pitches where they didn't show the velocity reading. Lesson learned...) His command was really good as well - 42 of his 67 fastballs were for strikes.
His splitter, on the other hand, is still probably one of the top ten or fifteen pitches in baseball, from any pitcher. He threw it 29 times, and only thre 9 balls; almost every pitch was in the lower third of the zone, as well. He throws his splitter much more to lefties than he does righties. Clemens did give up three hits off his splitter - a seeing-eye grounder by Reyes that scored Gomez, a one-hopper by Wright that would have been an out if Jeter had any range to his left, and Gomez's bunt single. If he keeps commanding this pitch this well - it usually read in the 84-86 range - he's going to remain a very useful pitcher.
His off-speed stuff really isn't very good at all any more. He throws his slider almost exclusively to righties, but didn't keep it in the zone very well. He tends to throw it pretty early in counts, instead of using it as an out pitch or a chase pitch. He only threw a handful of curveballs, mostly to lefties; he left this up in the zone occasionally, and put one belt-high and over the inner half to Reyes, who hit probably the farthest homer of his life. Again, he used this early in the count as well, mostly to keep hitters honest; he's basically a two-pitch pitcher to lefties now (although those pitches are pretty damned good).
Clemens is going to take some heat for allowing four stolen bases, and he does deserve some of it - he is kinda slow to the plate, and studies have shown that pitchers are just about as responsible as catchers for stolen bases that happen when they're on the mound. However, I think we now have to look at Posada as well - the Mets added another steal after Clemens left and stole five more bags on Saturday, so it's very possible Posada just doesn't have the arm he used to. Yes, the Mets are the best base-stealing team in baseball, but come on - 10 SBs in two games? That's really bad. (Not that I'm complaining - I have Reyes on both my fantasy teams...)
Julio Franco sure is patient...he only swung the bat four times, and he's walked nine times this year in only 45 at-bats. Too bad he can't really hit anymore...
Is the book on Carlos Gomez that he can't hit off-speed stuff? He sure saw a lot more junk than anybody else...
Clemens only walked one, by the way, and got 8 strikeouts; his control was that good throughout the game.
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