Well, the Phillies finally lost number 10,000 last night, and only this man has seen every single one. But I really don't care how many games the Phils have lost; I'm more curious right now about former Phillies closer Billy Wagner. One of the things I noted in my all-star game blog was that Wagner's fastball was topping out at 95 mph, including the one that Victor Martinez took deep for the eventual game-winning run. This seemed strange to me; Wagner has always had the reputation of being a guy who can hit 99-100 consistently on the radar gun.
So, I went through Wagner's recent outings to see if this was anything strange...and it turns out, it wasn't. Wagner's thrown three times since the All-Star break, and he's been effective in all three games. In his most recent outing, he was at 95 with pretty much every pitch (although he hit 97 on the last one), and in the two outings before that he was in the 94-97 range as well. I went back before the All-Star break to his 7/5 outing, but again, more of the same - his fastball was 96-97, hitting 98 twice, but this game was on the road in Houston, so it could just be that the radar gun there reads differently.
Is Wagner getting less effective as the season goes on, or does he simply not throw as hard as he used to? I went back to a couple of his April outings at Shea, but again, he was in the 94-95 range most of the time (though he hit 99 once, which seems to probably be a misread). Finally, I looked through some of his games in 2006 - the radar guns on the MLB.TV feed rarely actually worked, making the experience rather frusturating, but he was around 96-97 last year also (on the road, because the home games didn't show the speed).
What does this mean? It just means that Wagner doesn't throw as hard as he used to. Wagner still carries the reputation of being able to hit triple digits (in a game at Arizona last year, one of the announcers introduced him as "the hardest-throwing lefty in the game"), but that just isn't justified any more. Wagner was clocked at as high as 101 mph in 2003, but has lost a little bit off his heat since then. This actually isn't out of the ordinary; I was surprised to learn that he is 35 years old, so his pure stuff should be starting to decline around now.
Now, does this mean Wagner isn't going to be as effective anymore? Not really. Obviously, an extra five mph on his fastball would help, but he's still a fine pitcher without it. Wagner's given up just seven earned runs this year in 41 innings, for a solid 1.52 ERA (though he's given up four homers already, which would seem to suggest that his ERA is likely to increase a bit soon), and he's posted a great 0.87 WHIP thus far. Even more encouraging is the fact that his strikeout rate has remained extremely high - 11.3 K/9 this year. The only thing that's changed is that he's now relying more on location and changing speeds to get hitters out, instead of pure velocity. Wagner's location has been great in his last couple outings; yesterday, he was coming across the zone and low very consistently (the low and outside corner to a lefty). His slider has also become a devastating pitch; he throws it 85 mph with great movement, and he's shown tremendous command with it; he's thrown it eight times in his three most recent outings, and only once was it called a ball. Wagner also has a curve, but doesn't throw it very much; that's not really a problem, though, as a reliever doesn't usually need more than two pitches to be effective.
Showing posts with label pitching logs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pitching logs. Show all posts
July 16, 2007
June 30, 2007
Santana vs Verlander
Great pitching matchup in Detroit yesterday: Johan Santana vs. Justin Verlander. The Twins won fairly easily, 11-1, as Verlander had one of his worst outings of the season (although he was really good for a few innings) and Santana pitched like he always does. Santana's record is a respectable 9-6, but the Twins have scored three runs or less for him in 10 of his 17 starts so far, which is why his win total isn't higher. Santana's the best pitcher in the game today; here's a recap of some random things I noticed about him in this start:
Santana threw a lot of pitches in the first inning, but that wasn't really his fault; he faced five hitters and threw only seven balls. His high pitch total (25) was more due to the fact that guys like Polanco and Guillen were fouling off lots of pitches. Santana did give up two singles to right field; Polanco's was on a fastball up in the zone, and Sheffield's was just a great piece of hitting on a changeup away.
Then, in the second inning, Santana was apparently trying to keep his pitch count down and just throw strikes, as every pitch that inning was a fastball. It worked, too; he sent Pudge, Craig Monroe, and Marcus Thames down in order on only eight pitches. He was lucky to be facing poor hitters, though; both Monroe and Thames saw good pitches up in the zone, but each managed no more than a flyout. Santana resumed mixing in his off-speed after that, although he all but abandoned his slider after the fourth.
Santana's changeup is arguably the best pitch in all of baseball, but he didn't seem to be using it as often as usual. He was throwing more fastballs, but he was still effective. His fastball must have a lot of movement, because the Tigers were fouling a lot of his pitches straight back (meaning they were timing it okay, but couldn't make clean contact). He didn't really have very good command of his slider when he was throwing it, putting it in the strike zone only three of nine times.
Santana's fastball was in the 93-94 range all day, though I've been skeptical of Comerica Park velocity readings ever since last postseason, when all the Tigers pitchers mysteriously added three mph to their fastball. I seem to remember him being more in the 91-92 range when I saw him at the Metrodome last summer. Regardless, his fastball-change combo is very effective, as he takes a good 10 mph off his change (consistantly at 83).
The thing I would be worried about is that Santana was leaving way too many fastballs up in the zone; his change and slider were mostly down, but his fastball was often above the belt. Polanco put one of his fastballs over the left-field fence, and Guillen and Thames each hit warning-track flyballs that might have been homers in another ballpark. I'm guessing this has been fairly common for Santana this season, as his HR rate is at a career high.
As for Verlander...he was great in the second through fourth innings, but he gave up two runs in the first and four in the fifth. In both cases, control was the issue. Verlander walked Jason Bartlett and Joe Mauer in the first to load the bases; Bartlett and Luis Castillo both scored that inning. In the fifth, Verlander walked Jason Tyner to lead off the inning, and then walked Castillo and Bartlett to load the bases again, setting the state for a rare Joe Mauer grand slam. Control problems often are among the first signs of pitcher fatigue. Verlander was pulled after five innings, but he still threw 99 pitches because he was so ineffective. I still believe that Verlander will end up on the DL or with a very bad stretch at some point this season, and this start showed why.
A couple other random thoughts:
Boy, Placido Polanco sure is a battler, isn't he? He saw 16 pitches in three at-bats against Santana, ending up with two hits.
Santana sure knows who to pitch to...Sheffield only saw one pitch up in the zone, while Marcus Thames and Nefi Perez got a lot of fastballs at the letters.
Curtis Granderson is one of baseball's better young players, and he probably deserves to be in the All-Star game this year. But one thing he still needs to learn is plate discipline. Granderson saw 16 pitches, swung at 10 of them, and only put one into play (a grounder to first). Granderson saw a lot more off-speed than anybody else, due to his free-swinging nature; there are players who can succeed with this attitude (Vlad, Soriano), but it's pretty rare.
One of the Detroit announcers (don't know which one) said this about Nefi Perez: "When playing everyday, Perez is a very good bunter." Wow! Jim Leyland must be a fool for not playing him due to his bunting skills! Why wouldn't Perez play everyday, so he can become an even better bunter? Oh, right, his .297 career OBP. And his career OPS+ of 63 (100 is league-average). And the fact that bunting is pretty much his only offensive skill, and it's a pretty useless one at that.
Santana threw a lot of pitches in the first inning, but that wasn't really his fault; he faced five hitters and threw only seven balls. His high pitch total (25) was more due to the fact that guys like Polanco and Guillen were fouling off lots of pitches. Santana did give up two singles to right field; Polanco's was on a fastball up in the zone, and Sheffield's was just a great piece of hitting on a changeup away.
Then, in the second inning, Santana was apparently trying to keep his pitch count down and just throw strikes, as every pitch that inning was a fastball. It worked, too; he sent Pudge, Craig Monroe, and Marcus Thames down in order on only eight pitches. He was lucky to be facing poor hitters, though; both Monroe and Thames saw good pitches up in the zone, but each managed no more than a flyout. Santana resumed mixing in his off-speed after that, although he all but abandoned his slider after the fourth.
Santana's changeup is arguably the best pitch in all of baseball, but he didn't seem to be using it as often as usual. He was throwing more fastballs, but he was still effective. His fastball must have a lot of movement, because the Tigers were fouling a lot of his pitches straight back (meaning they were timing it okay, but couldn't make clean contact). He didn't really have very good command of his slider when he was throwing it, putting it in the strike zone only three of nine times.
Santana's fastball was in the 93-94 range all day, though I've been skeptical of Comerica Park velocity readings ever since last postseason, when all the Tigers pitchers mysteriously added three mph to their fastball. I seem to remember him being more in the 91-92 range when I saw him at the Metrodome last summer. Regardless, his fastball-change combo is very effective, as he takes a good 10 mph off his change (consistantly at 83).
The thing I would be worried about is that Santana was leaving way too many fastballs up in the zone; his change and slider were mostly down, but his fastball was often above the belt. Polanco put one of his fastballs over the left-field fence, and Guillen and Thames each hit warning-track flyballs that might have been homers in another ballpark. I'm guessing this has been fairly common for Santana this season, as his HR rate is at a career high.
As for Verlander...he was great in the second through fourth innings, but he gave up two runs in the first and four in the fifth. In both cases, control was the issue. Verlander walked Jason Bartlett and Joe Mauer in the first to load the bases; Bartlett and Luis Castillo both scored that inning. In the fifth, Verlander walked Jason Tyner to lead off the inning, and then walked Castillo and Bartlett to load the bases again, setting the state for a rare Joe Mauer grand slam. Control problems often are among the first signs of pitcher fatigue. Verlander was pulled after five innings, but he still threw 99 pitches because he was so ineffective. I still believe that Verlander will end up on the DL or with a very bad stretch at some point this season, and this start showed why.
A couple other random thoughts:
Boy, Placido Polanco sure is a battler, isn't he? He saw 16 pitches in three at-bats against Santana, ending up with two hits.
Santana sure knows who to pitch to...Sheffield only saw one pitch up in the zone, while Marcus Thames and Nefi Perez got a lot of fastballs at the letters.
Curtis Granderson is one of baseball's better young players, and he probably deserves to be in the All-Star game this year. But one thing he still needs to learn is plate discipline. Granderson saw 16 pitches, swung at 10 of them, and only put one into play (a grounder to first). Granderson saw a lot more off-speed than anybody else, due to his free-swinging nature; there are players who can succeed with this attitude (Vlad, Soriano), but it's pretty rare.
One of the Detroit announcers (don't know which one) said this about Nefi Perez: "When playing everyday, Perez is a very good bunter." Wow! Jim Leyland must be a fool for not playing him due to his bunting skills! Why wouldn't Perez play everyday, so he can become an even better bunter? Oh, right, his .297 career OBP. And his career OPS+ of 63 (100 is league-average). And the fact that bunting is pretty much his only offensive skill, and it's a pretty useless one at that.
June 17, 2007
Clemens vs. NY Mets
The Subway Series resumed on Friday with Roger Clemens pitching against Oliver Perez, and it was a tale of two teams going in different directions. The Yankees had won their past 9 games, while the Mets had dropped nine of their last 10. The Mets ended their slide and the Yankees' streak with a 2-0 victory, as Perez threw a gem. I was really interested to see how Clemens threw, however; this was his second start in the big leagues, with the first being a decent game against the Pirates (6 IP, 3 ER). Overall, you have to say that Clemens has been everything the Yankees hoped for thus far, although his throwing 6 1/3 innings of 2-run ball and getting hung with the loss was a flashback to his Houson days.
In particular, there were two numbers from his 2006 splits that stood out to me:
1. Clemens was exceptionally tough on righties last year, holding them to just a .185/.228/.286 (BA/OBP/SLG) line. But he was startlingly mediocre against lefties, allowing them to hit .254/.322/.368, still not great numbers but much better than lefties. This stat was particularly relevant to Friday's game, given that the Mets have arguably the best collection of left-handed hitters in all of baseball in Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Green, and Valentin. This should be as good a test as any to see if Clemens continues to pitch at his '06 splits.
2. Hitters hit very well off Clemens when the count was 2-0, which is to be expected; hitters in all of baseball hit best on 2-0. But the next best count for hitters against Clemens was 0-0 - when swinging first-pitch, hitters had a stellar .455 batting average and a .750 slugging percentage, in a somewhat significant sample size (44 AB). So I was curious to see if the Mets hitters would take advantage and swing at the first pitch more often, given that it's apparently easier to hit than the subsequent ones. This kind of makes sense - Clemens' fastball isn't as dominating as it was in his prime, but his splitter is still excellent; maybe he throws a lot of first-pitch fastballs and uses his splitter later in the count.
Anyways, I went back through the game (with help from MLB.TV) and looked at his pitches more in-depth. Here are some thoughts, in no particular order:
Regarding the first two splits I mentioned: The lefties in the lineup went 4-for-15, including a Reyes HR, while the righties were 3-for-12 (with two of those being Carlos Gomez bunt singles). Not really conclusive proof either way. Delgado had an awful game - three K's against Clemens, with another after he left - and the others didn't really seem to see the ball well either; Reyes was really the only one hitting well from either side of the plate. As for the other split: Only three players put the ball in play on the first pitch, and all three got hits (although, to be fair, one was a bunt) - Beltran's single in the first, Reyes' aforementioned homer in the fourth, and Gomez's bunt single in the seventh. Again, it seems the best strategy against Clemens is to take advantage of that first pitch. Clemens threw first pitch strikes to 15 of the 27 hitters he faced, and he threw fastballs to the majority of the hitters. By my count, the Mets only swung at six of these first pitches (and two were bunts!); they might have been able to score another run or two if they had been more aggressive. (By the way, in his debut against the Pirates, only one player put a first-pitch offering in play - Adam LaRoche, who hit an RBI single to center.)
Clemens' fastball is no longer a plus pitch in terms of velocity or movement, but he sure knows how to use it. His location on his fastball was excellent - almost everything was on the corners, and he didn't leave much up in the zone. His pitch topped out at 91, but it was consistantly in the 89-91 range, and he sets it up nicely with his splitter and slider. (Actually, the my9 radar gun said 97 once, but I'm pretty sure that was a misread. Their coverage actually sucked for this purpose; there were more than 20 pitches where they didn't show the velocity reading. Lesson learned...) His command was really good as well - 42 of his 67 fastballs were for strikes.
His splitter, on the other hand, is still probably one of the top ten or fifteen pitches in baseball, from any pitcher. He threw it 29 times, and only thre 9 balls; almost every pitch was in the lower third of the zone, as well. He throws his splitter much more to lefties than he does righties. Clemens did give up three hits off his splitter - a seeing-eye grounder by Reyes that scored Gomez, a one-hopper by Wright that would have been an out if Jeter had any range to his left, and Gomez's bunt single. If he keeps commanding this pitch this well - it usually read in the 84-86 range - he's going to remain a very useful pitcher.
His off-speed stuff really isn't very good at all any more. He throws his slider almost exclusively to righties, but didn't keep it in the zone very well. He tends to throw it pretty early in counts, instead of using it as an out pitch or a chase pitch. He only threw a handful of curveballs, mostly to lefties; he left this up in the zone occasionally, and put one belt-high and over the inner half to Reyes, who hit probably the farthest homer of his life. Again, he used this early in the count as well, mostly to keep hitters honest; he's basically a two-pitch pitcher to lefties now (although those pitches are pretty damned good).
Clemens is going to take some heat for allowing four stolen bases, and he does deserve some of it - he is kinda slow to the plate, and studies have shown that pitchers are just about as responsible as catchers for stolen bases that happen when they're on the mound. However, I think we now have to look at Posada as well - the Mets added another steal after Clemens left and stole five more bags on Saturday, so it's very possible Posada just doesn't have the arm he used to. Yes, the Mets are the best base-stealing team in baseball, but come on - 10 SBs in two games? That's really bad. (Not that I'm complaining - I have Reyes on both my fantasy teams...)
Julio Franco sure is patient...he only swung the bat four times, and he's walked nine times this year in only 45 at-bats. Too bad he can't really hit anymore...
Is the book on Carlos Gomez that he can't hit off-speed stuff? He sure saw a lot more junk than anybody else...
Clemens only walked one, by the way, and got 8 strikeouts; his control was that good throughout the game.
In particular, there were two numbers from his 2006 splits that stood out to me:
1. Clemens was exceptionally tough on righties last year, holding them to just a .185/.228/.286 (BA/OBP/SLG) line. But he was startlingly mediocre against lefties, allowing them to hit .254/.322/.368, still not great numbers but much better than lefties. This stat was particularly relevant to Friday's game, given that the Mets have arguably the best collection of left-handed hitters in all of baseball in Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Green, and Valentin. This should be as good a test as any to see if Clemens continues to pitch at his '06 splits.
2. Hitters hit very well off Clemens when the count was 2-0, which is to be expected; hitters in all of baseball hit best on 2-0. But the next best count for hitters against Clemens was 0-0 - when swinging first-pitch, hitters had a stellar .455 batting average and a .750 slugging percentage, in a somewhat significant sample size (44 AB). So I was curious to see if the Mets hitters would take advantage and swing at the first pitch more often, given that it's apparently easier to hit than the subsequent ones. This kind of makes sense - Clemens' fastball isn't as dominating as it was in his prime, but his splitter is still excellent; maybe he throws a lot of first-pitch fastballs and uses his splitter later in the count.
Anyways, I went back through the game (with help from MLB.TV) and looked at his pitches more in-depth. Here are some thoughts, in no particular order:
Regarding the first two splits I mentioned: The lefties in the lineup went 4-for-15, including a Reyes HR, while the righties were 3-for-12 (with two of those being Carlos Gomez bunt singles). Not really conclusive proof either way. Delgado had an awful game - three K's against Clemens, with another after he left - and the others didn't really seem to see the ball well either; Reyes was really the only one hitting well from either side of the plate. As for the other split: Only three players put the ball in play on the first pitch, and all three got hits (although, to be fair, one was a bunt) - Beltran's single in the first, Reyes' aforementioned homer in the fourth, and Gomez's bunt single in the seventh. Again, it seems the best strategy against Clemens is to take advantage of that first pitch. Clemens threw first pitch strikes to 15 of the 27 hitters he faced, and he threw fastballs to the majority of the hitters. By my count, the Mets only swung at six of these first pitches (and two were bunts!); they might have been able to score another run or two if they had been more aggressive. (By the way, in his debut against the Pirates, only one player put a first-pitch offering in play - Adam LaRoche, who hit an RBI single to center.)
Clemens' fastball is no longer a plus pitch in terms of velocity or movement, but he sure knows how to use it. His location on his fastball was excellent - almost everything was on the corners, and he didn't leave much up in the zone. His pitch topped out at 91, but it was consistantly in the 89-91 range, and he sets it up nicely with his splitter and slider. (Actually, the my9 radar gun said 97 once, but I'm pretty sure that was a misread. Their coverage actually sucked for this purpose; there were more than 20 pitches where they didn't show the velocity reading. Lesson learned...) His command was really good as well - 42 of his 67 fastballs were for strikes.
His splitter, on the other hand, is still probably one of the top ten or fifteen pitches in baseball, from any pitcher. He threw it 29 times, and only thre 9 balls; almost every pitch was in the lower third of the zone, as well. He throws his splitter much more to lefties than he does righties. Clemens did give up three hits off his splitter - a seeing-eye grounder by Reyes that scored Gomez, a one-hopper by Wright that would have been an out if Jeter had any range to his left, and Gomez's bunt single. If he keeps commanding this pitch this well - it usually read in the 84-86 range - he's going to remain a very useful pitcher.
His off-speed stuff really isn't very good at all any more. He throws his slider almost exclusively to righties, but didn't keep it in the zone very well. He tends to throw it pretty early in counts, instead of using it as an out pitch or a chase pitch. He only threw a handful of curveballs, mostly to lefties; he left this up in the zone occasionally, and put one belt-high and over the inner half to Reyes, who hit probably the farthest homer of his life. Again, he used this early in the count as well, mostly to keep hitters honest; he's basically a two-pitch pitcher to lefties now (although those pitches are pretty damned good).
Clemens is going to take some heat for allowing four stolen bases, and he does deserve some of it - he is kinda slow to the plate, and studies have shown that pitchers are just about as responsible as catchers for stolen bases that happen when they're on the mound. However, I think we now have to look at Posada as well - the Mets added another steal after Clemens left and stole five more bags on Saturday, so it's very possible Posada just doesn't have the arm he used to. Yes, the Mets are the best base-stealing team in baseball, but come on - 10 SBs in two games? That's really bad. (Not that I'm complaining - I have Reyes on both my fantasy teams...)
Julio Franco sure is patient...he only swung the bat four times, and he's walked nine times this year in only 45 at-bats. Too bad he can't really hit anymore...
Is the book on Carlos Gomez that he can't hit off-speed stuff? He sure saw a lot more junk than anybody else...
Clemens only walked one, by the way, and got 8 strikeouts; his control was that good throughout the game.
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