Bullpen Catcher

Why everybody should be rooting for the Indians...

2007-10-21T16:42:00.000-04:00

Why should everybody (well, everybody outside of Boston) be rooting for the Indians tonight? The short answer is this: They built their team the right way, amassing stars with a low payroll. The Indians give every low-payroll team hope that they can compete, with smart moves made in the front office.

Let's look at the 2001 Indians. Jim Thome had a monster year - he finished just 7th in the MVP voting, but posted a .416 OBP, .624 SLG, and a 170 OPS+, finishing third, second, and second in those respective categories (Giambi led all three with an outstanding year, though Ichiro took the MVP). Robbie Alomar at age 33 had one of the best years ever by a second baseman, putting up a .336/.415/.541 line with a 150 OPS+ and winning the Gold Glove for the 10th time. Juan Gonzalez, and Marty Cordova had career years in the outfield, and DH Ellis Burks slugged .542 at the age of 36. The pitching staff, while not the team's strength, was servicable, as ace Bartolo Colon and rookie C.C. Sabathia each struck out almost a batter per inning while posting above-average ERAs. Their bullpen was very strong, as Bob Wickman, Ricardo Rincon, Paul Shuey, and Danys Baez all had ERAs under three. The 2001 Indians won the division with a 91-71 record, and took the 116-win Seattle Mariners to five games in the ALDS before finally losing.

But 2001 is more notable for another reason. After the 2001 season, GM John Hart (who had built the Indians mini-dynasty that won six of the last seven AL Central titles) left the team and took over as general manager of the Rangers. Assistant GM Mark Shapiro was promoted to take his place. Shapiro (who, incidentally, is the brother-in-law of Eric Mangini) went on to build the Indians team that is one game away from the World Series today.

The 2001 Indians were a very good team filled with a lot of household names, but they were an old team as well. Of their nine starting position players, only catcher Einar Diaz (28) was under 30 years old. Realizing that the team he had would not remain competitive for long and that the Indians lacked the cash to reload when their older players stopped performing as well as they had, Shapiro started making moves while his players' value was still high.

Shapiro took over as GM on November 1st. Here are some of the most notable transactions since then:

Lets Juan Gonzalez, Marty Cordova walk - Shapiro could have easily re-signed his two most productive outfielders from 2001 and made another run at contention the next year, but he didn't. Cordova signed a 3 yr/$9 mill contract with the Orioles; he missed 31 games in 2002 while slugging just .434, played only 9 games in 2003 and was out of baseball the next year. Gonzalez signed a 2 yr/$21 mill contract with the Rangers (actually not that bad a deal at the time, given the market and Gonzalez's past six seasons), and played a total of 152 games over those years.

Trades Robbie Alomar, Mike Bacsik, and Danny Peoples to the Mets for Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar, Jerrod Riggan, Earl Snyder, and Billy Traber - Obviously, this deal doesn't look great on paper. But Lawton was regarded as a pretty good player at the time, and more importantly, Alomar was 34 years old and owed $16 mill over the next two seasons. In 2002, Alomar followed up his outstanding 2001 campagin with a .266/.331/.376 line; the next year, he did even worse (.258/.333/.349). In the middle of the 2003 season, Alomar was traded to the White Sox for a peanut vendor (peanuts not included).

Signs Rafael Perez as undrafted free agent - The Indians didn't really do a whole lot to build this team through the draft (other than Sabathia, back in 1998), but a lot of their signings of undrafted worked out extremely well. Perez threw 60.7 innings for this year's team in his first full season in the majors, with a 1.78 ERA and a .92 WHIP as Cleveland's top lefty reliever in a much-improved bullpen.

Trades Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew to the Expos for Lee Stevens, Brandon Philips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore - Arguably Shapiro's best move. Colon owned a 2.55 ERA at this point in the season in 2002 in his best year as a starter, but was going to get much more expensive after the season due to arbitration (he ended up getting more than $8 million the next year) and was due for free agency after 2003, when he signed a huge contract with the Angels. Colon was solid for the rest of the year, with a 3.31 ERA in his stint with Les Expos, and posted a 3.87 ERA the following year with the White Sox, although he's had much less success with the Angels. But more important for the Indians was the package they received in return. Phillips has turned into a very good player, unfortunately not for the Indians; the second baseman hit 30 homers and stole 32 bags this year for the Reds (he was traded across the state for reliever Jeff Stevens, still in the minors). Lee's 6.29 ERA sent him to the minors this season, but he threw over 200 innings in 2005 and 06 with a 3.79 and 4.40 ERA, respectively. He's still a 28-year-old lefthander, so there's still time for him to figure things out. And Sizemore...if you don't know about him by now, you obviously don't follow baseball. Sizemore's averaged a .285/.371/.493 line over the past three years, he's a pretty good centerfielder...and the best part is that he's only 24 years old. If he isn't already, he should be one of the 10 best players in baseball very soon.

Trades Chuck Finley to the Cardinals for Coco Crisp and Luis Garcia - Finley was a very respected pitcher who had been a very solid starter in the AL for years, but by this point, he was 39 years old and had already thrown more than 3000 innings. Finley posted a 3.80 ERA for the rest of the year to help lead the Redbirds to the ALCS, but retired at the end of the year. Crisp, meanwhile, became a good centerfielder for the Indians; in 2005, he hit .300/.345/.465 at the age of 25. He was traded to the Red Sox for a package featuring highly touted prospect Andy Marte (who unfortunately looks like a bust), but has struggled some since then.
Trades Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese to the Rangers for Travis Hafner and Aaron Myetter - Diaz was coming off a terrible year (.206/.258/.284, 47 OPS+), but Shaprio still managed to get something for him from the Rangers. Diaz "rebounded" somewhat (61 OPS+) the next year with the Rangers, but not enough to justify this trade. Obviously, the star in this deal is Hafner. Pronk was "down" to the tune of a 118 OPS+ this year, but was amazing over the last three years; he posted an OPS+ above 160 each year, including an outstanding .308/.439/.659 campaign last year, when was the best hitter in the AL.

Signs Casey Blake as a cheap free agent - Blake was a journeyman backup third basemen, having played in only 49 games before the signing. But at the age of 29, he finally got regular playing time with the Indians, and has evolved into a capable third baseman. He hasn't been outstanding, but his OPS+ as an Indian has been 105. His .270/.339/.437 line this year won't get him any MVP votes, but average players are hard to find in today's game and are a necessary part of a great team.

Signs Rafael Betancourt as a minor-league free agent - Betancourt had been a reliever in the Red Sox system until 2001, when the Sox finally got rid of him. The Indians signed him before the 2003 season, and he was a solid reliever until this year, when he was spectacular. Betancourt pitched 80 innings with a 1.47 ERA and a .756 WHIP, another key part of the Indians' outstanding bullpen.

Trades Eduardo Perez to the Mariners for Asdrubal Cabrera - Cabrera's certainly not a star at second base (even though he should be playing SS), and he's been no more than an average hitter this season. But he's only 21, so although I don't believe he's projected to be a superstar, there's still room for improvement. Perez was a 36-year-old journeyman first baseman who put together 100 good at-bats with the Tribe in 06; after the trade, he hit .195/.304/.241, and could not find a team to play with this year.

Before Shapiro took over, the Indians also signed Victor Martinez, Fransisco Carmona, and Jhonny Peralta as undrafted FAs, and also acquired Jake Westbrook for then-34-year-old David Justice.

The Indians are a perfect model for how a mid-market team needs to compete. The Tribe's payroll is just $61 million, 23rd out of 30 teams in baseball, but they are one game away from the World Series and look as good as anybody for the next three or four years. They had a great team in the late 90's, traded away their stars before they lost value, and used a tremendous scouting department to find bargains in trades and in minor league free agents. The Indians' front office - including Shapiro - is possibly the most underrated in the game, and is the reason they're where they are today.

Barry Bonds

2007-08-23T22:18:00.001-04:00

Obviously, I'm pretty much done with this blog for this year...maybe I'll revitalize it next summer, maybe not. Fall is starting, and I'm going to be blogging about high school sports on the Times Union website again this year. One more thing: I was invited to publish a short article on Barry Bonds on PBS Newshour last week. Here's the link.

Clearing the Bases: Best team in baseball?

2007-07-17T18:32:00.000-04:00

Clearing the Bases: going through some of the most notable links from the past week...

Buster Olney had this interesting nugget of information in a recent blog:

By the way, I e-mailed this question to a number of talent evaluators, general managers, scouts, other executives and players: Who is the best team in baseball? Got back 20 responses within a 12-hour period.
Here's the breakdown:
Detroit Tigers -- 11
Boston Red Sox -- 6
Los Angeles Angels -- 3

That's pretty interesting. No mention of the Indians? I think they're right up there with the Tigers and Red Sox, and possibly a bit ahead of the Angels. I'm not surprised that there are no NL teams on the list, though...

A message to the media: Don't steal from blogs, especially when the stories are made-up...

A proposal to fix the HR Derby that I'm sure we'll all support…

American League pitchers, take note: Tony Pena doesn't want your charity (via Rob Neyer's blog)

Deadspin, with this great take on the All-Star game fiasco: "As tends to be the case with La Russa anymore, he's so busy thinking about how he's three steps ahead of everyone else that he walks smack dab into a pole."

Baseball Prospectus' All-Star Game recap…

THT with an analytical (you know, actually involving research) look at the Buehrle signing…

Braves reliever Wilfredo Ledezma is stuck in Venezuala, thanks to an unfortunate laundry accident…

An in-depth look at the two-horse NL Central race.

Random Video of the Week: I really don't think these kids are eight years old, but still, this football highlight video is impressive. By the way, that #20 sure can block…

Billy Wagner - losing his stuff?

2007-07-16T13:52:00.001-04:00

Well, the Phillies finally lost number 10,000 last night, and only this man has seen every single one. But I really don't care how many games the Phils have lost; I'm more curious right now about former Phillies closer Billy Wagner. One of the things I noted in my all-star game blog was that Wagner's fastball was topping out at 95 mph, including the one that Victor Martinez took deep for the eventual game-winning run. This seemed strange to me; Wagner has always had the reputation of being a guy who can hit 99-100 consistently on the radar gun.

So, I went through Wagner's recent outings to see if this was anything strange...and it turns out, it wasn't. Wagner's thrown three times since the All-Star break, and he's been effective in all three games. In his most recent outing, he was at 95 with pretty much every pitch (although he hit 97 on the last one), and in the two outings before that he was in the 94-97 range as well. I went back before the All-Star break to his 7/5 outing, but again, more of the same - his fastball was 96-97, hitting 98 twice, but this game was on the road in Houston, so it could just be that the radar gun there reads differently.

Is Wagner getting less effective as the season goes on, or does he simply not throw as hard as he used to? I went back to a couple of his April outings at Shea, but again, he was in the 94-95 range most of the time (though he hit 99 once, which seems to probably be a misread). Finally, I looked through some of his games in 2006 - the radar guns on the MLB.TV feed rarely actually worked, making the experience rather frusturating, but he was around 96-97 last year also (on the road, because the home games didn't show the speed).

What does this mean? It just means that Wagner doesn't throw as hard as he used to. Wagner still carries the reputation of being able to hit triple digits (in a game at Arizona last year, one of the announcers introduced him as "the hardest-throwing lefty in the game"), but that just isn't justified any more. Wagner was clocked at as high as 101 mph in 2003, but has lost a little bit off his heat since then. This actually isn't out of the ordinary; I was surprised to learn that he is 35 years old, so his pure stuff should be starting to decline around now.

Now, does this mean Wagner isn't going to be as effective anymore? Not really. Obviously, an extra five mph on his fastball would help, but he's still a fine pitcher without it. Wagner's given up just seven earned runs this year in 41 innings, for a solid 1.52 ERA (though he's given up four homers already, which would seem to suggest that his ERA is likely to increase a bit soon), and he's posted a great 0.87 WHIP thus far. Even more encouraging is the fact that his strikeout rate has remained extremely high - 11.3 K/9 this year. The only thing that's changed is that he's now relying more on location and changing speeds to get hitters out, instead of pure velocity. Wagner's location has been great in his last couple outings; yesterday, he was coming across the zone and low very consistently (the low and outside corner to a lefty). His slider has also become a devastating pitch; he throws it 85 mph with great movement, and he's shown tremendous command with it; he's thrown it eight times in his three most recent outings, and only once was it called a ball. Wagner also has a curve, but doesn't throw it very much; that's not really a problem, though, as a reliever doesn't usually need more than two pitches to be effective.

MLB Midseason, Part III - Second Half Preview

2007-07-13T18:47:00.000-04:00

Tony La Russa "apologized" for his All-Star game blunder, but it still didn't make any sense. What he said was that he should have hit Pujols for Rowand "because it's an exhibition, and that's what the fans wanted to see" (paraphrasing). But the implication there is that, if it had been a regular-seasn game, he would have done exactly what he did, which was leave the best hitter in baseball on the bench while a career league-average hitter makes the third out with the bases loaded. There were four times that inning when Pujols should have batted, in my opinion; first, he should have hit for the pitcher instead of Dimitri Young; second, he probably should have batted for Derrek Lee (this one is debatable, though, because Lee is almost as good as Pujols and this would have limited the NL's flexibility); third, he should have hit for Orlando Hudson; and finally, he absolutely had to hit for Rowand. I think Deadspin had the best take on the game: "As tends to be the case with La Russa anymore, he's so busy thinking about how he's three steps ahead of everyone else that he walks smack dab into a pole."

One more note from the All-Star game - I still haven't gotten an answer as to what was up with Billy Wagner. Wagner's fastball usually touches triple digits, enabling him to post a ridiculous 11.95 K/9 for his career. But on Tuesday, his fastball was at just 95, including the one that V-Mart took deep for the eventual game-winning homer. When I get a chance, I'll look through his recent outings and see if this is a problem for Wagner or if he just wasn't using his best stuff.

All that said, let's preview the division and wild card races for the second half of the year:

AL East: Look, the Red Sox have this won, so there's no use wasting any more time on that. They're 20 games above .500, and their run differential backs it up, so there's no reason to expect their performance to change. Plus, they've had a couple people performing below expectations (I'm looking at you, Coco Crisp and Julio Lugo), so it's not like all their players are having career years. There's just no way the Sox lose the division, unless an asteroid levels the team jet sometime in August. Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay are all below .500, and they all suck; no need to waste more words there. The Yankees are the really interesting case. I'm anything but a Yankee fan, but the Yankees are far from done, despite what many people would like you to believe. I don't really care about their history; when I look at that team, I see a team that's been really, really unlucky. Their record is just .500, but their run differential is that of a 50-36 team. Plus, they've suffered tons of injuries to their pitching staff and their outfield. I know the popular thing to do right now is to pile on the Yankees, but there's no reason they can't play at least .600 ball from here on out. That would put them at 90 wins, which still probably isn't enough. But give them a little luck, and they could definitely get to 93-95. The AL's really tough this year, with a lot of really good teams, and it's very possible that 95 wins is good enough for the WIld Card. And, if that isn't enough, the Yankees' first 28 games out of the break are all against teams currently below .500. Don't believe my random speculation? CoolStandings.com gives them a 17% chance of making the playoffs, and Baseball Prospectus puts the odds at 23%. Sure, those odds aren't great, but they're much better than most people would lead you to believe.

AL Central: Best division in baseball? Well, the bottom two teams are very bad (Chicago and KC), but Minnesota is a good team, and Cleveland and Detroit are two of the top three teams in baseball (see below). Ultimately, I don't think the Twins have a shot - they're already seven games back, and they just aren't good enough to overcome that deficit. Starting Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz instead of their more talented youngsters certainly hurt, but this team wasn't going to make the playoffs this year anyways. Morneau, Mauer, Hunter, and Cuddyer give them a solid middle of the lineup, but the rest of their position players aren't good at all. So this one is a two-horse race between the Indians and Tigers. The loser should still get the wild-card, but they will have to hold off the Yankees and possibly the Mariners, if they keep their pace up. I would expect both teams to make the playoffs. Detroit's run differential is much better (their 514 runs scored are easily the best in baseball, despite playing in a big park; the Indians are second, with 471, and the Yankees are in third with 463), but I'm really not sure their offense can keep this up - Magglio Ordonez is playing way over his head, Curtis Granderson hasn't proven he can keep this up for a full year and his high strikeout rate combined with his low walk rate is troubling, and a lot of their other players are aging veterans who may not be able to keep up their performance for a full season. Their pitching should contnue to be strong and maybe even better as Kenny Rogers returns, although I'm still not sold on Verlander staying healthy and strong for a full season, and I don't know that rookie Andrew Miller can succeed his second time through the majors. For some reason, I've really taken a liking to the Indians over the last couple years, so I find myself being a little biased here, but I'm taking the Tribe to win the division. This team is filled with offensive stars; Hafner has been playing below his potential, but is still getting on base 40% of the time, rady Sizemore and Victor Martinez are great, and the rest of the lineup is filled with solid hitters. C.C. Sabathia is one of the ten best pitchers in the game, Fausto Carmona has been a pleasant surprise, and the uncharitable Paul Byrd has been effective (six total walks this year). I'd be lying if I said I was confident in their bullpen, but the Tigers' pen has some problems, too. I do think the loser wins the Wild Card, though again I'm not counting the Yankees out.

AL West: This is the Angels all the way. Seattle's only two games back, so you certainly can't count them out, though they've been very lucky this year. They've barely scored more runs than they've allowed, and they've hit extremely well in the clutch (not typically a repeatable ability) also. You can make a good case that the Mariners will be in it to the end, but I'm not buying it. Oakland certainly has the potential to improve, but they're 9.5 games back, and the Angels aren't going anywhere. The Angels' pitching is solid, their lineup is solid, and their bullpen is the best in the game...it's hard to pinpoint any weaknesses here. I'm not sure I trust their bats enough to win three playoff series, but they're certainly among the elite teams in the game.

NL East: Unfortunately, the Mets haven't played as well as we thought they would before the season. Fortunately (for them), neither have the Braves or Phillies. The standings right now are oddly symmetrical; the Mets are 10 games above .500, the Braves are 5 games above .500, the Phillies are right at .500, the Marlins are five games below .500, but the Nationals ruin the trend by being 16 games below .500. I don't know...I still think the Mets win the division, but nothing would surprise me much. The Phillies are still only five games back despite the fact that their pitchers not named Cole Hamels have been terrible, but even though I would expect their pitching to get better, Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand are playing significantly above their pre-2007 levels. I don't really know what to make of the Braves...if Andrew Jones and Brian McCann can turn things around, they'll certainly stay in contention, but I'm just not sure they have enough to contend (John Smoltz and Tim Hudson have had minor injury problems this year, too). The Braves will be right in the mix with the NL West teams for the wild-card, but I think they'll end up a couple games short.

NL Central: The Cardinals are done. Is everybody with me here? Because I've heard a couple people saying they're in contention, and they're not. They're 7.5 games back, Milwaukee isn't going to collapse, and they just don't have any great players other than Pujols, Carpenter (injured), and Chris Duncan (who mashes righties, but can't hit lefties). The Cubs and Brewers are the only playoff contenders in this division, and although the Cubs aren't bad, I fully expect the Brewers to take this division fairly easily. Their lineup's good, but their pitching's even better - Jeff Suppan has the highest ERA of anybody who's started a game, at 5.00. (By the way, can we stop calling the Brewers a "surprise"? Anyone who had a brainin their head knew the Brewers or maybe the Cubs were going to win the division at the start of the season). The Cubs' pitching has been incredibly surprising - Marquis, Lilly, Hill, and Zambrano all have ERAs in the threes - but I don't think they'll keep it up. The Astros have a nice nucleus (Oswalt, Pence, Lee, Berkman, Lidge) but don't have anything around it. The Pirates have to be pleased with the starting pitching they've gotten from Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny, but that's not a good team. The Reds are going to end up wasting Ken Griffey's last years and Adam Dunn's prime years, as they're not a good team now and they've got nothing in the farm system besides Jay Bruce.

NL West: The toughest of the six divisions. The Padres have to be the favorite, seeing as they've given up just 298 runs, more than fifty fewer than anybody else in baseball (a somewhat deceiving figure, as they play their home games in spacious PETCO Park, but their pitching is great nonetheless), and their lineup is solid if not spectacular. The Dodgers are just a game back, and they're finally starting to give playing time to their youngsters, such as Matt Kemp and James Loney, something they should have done in April. The Diamondbacks have possibly even more young talent, although most of them haven't played particularly well thus far; they're still in the hunt at 3.5 games back, though. And you can't yet count out the Rockies, 5.5 games back. I'm taking the Padres to win the division and the D-Backs to win the Wild Card, but nothing would really surprise me in the NL.

Power Rankings (sort of):

There's really no reason to do power rankings 1-30, because they would have no purpose. But I'll give you my view of the teams in playoff contention in groups, because there's not much separating each team within each group.

Group 1: Boston, Detroit, Cleveland

These are the three best teams in baseball, in my mind. All three teams have great hitting and great pitching. If I had to order them, I'd probably go Boston-Cleveland-Detroit, but it's really close. No major flaws on any of the teams, though Detroit and Cleveland could use a little bullpen help.

Group 2: Anaheim

Or whatever they want to be called, anyways. I just don't think they're quite at the level of the first three teams; their bullpen is excellent, but their pitching is somewhat inconsistent and I'm not 100% sold on their offense.

Group 3: New York Mets, Milwaukee, San Diego, New York Yankees

Hello, NL! No, I didn't forget about you...you're just not as good as the AL is, at least at the top. I think all three of the NL teams are pretty much even...I'll probably go SD-Mil-NY, but there's not a meaningful difference between the three teams. And go ahead and ridicule me for putting the Yankees here if you want...but are you telling me you'd really take one of the lower teams in a series over the Yankees? If you do, you're crazy.

Group 4: Minnesota, Atlanta, Arizona, Los Angeles

The Twins don't have a chance at contending in the loaded AL, but they'd be a good team in the NL. Atlanta, Arizona, and LA will be fighting for the wild card, and any of them could win it. Chicago probably could belong in this group as well; I'm just not sold at all on their pitching, and they're not a good defensive club.

Live Blog: All-Star Game

2007-07-10T19:56:00.000-04:00

7:59: Live from ~~San Francisco~~ My Living Room, it's the 2007 All-Star Game on Fox!

Well, I told you righties had an advantage in the Derby last night...for some reason, lots of people thought lefties would do better. Still, that was pretty boring...the HR Derby has entered the zone of the Dunk Contest where it just really isn't interesting anymore. Some people have suggested making it a "skills competition", including stuff like running, throwing, etc.; I think that would generate interest for a couple years, but then slip back into oblivion. I'm not sure if there's any real way to "fix" the Derby; people just aren't as interested in things like that anymore. Fortunately, the game itself is still relevant, at least more so than any other All-Star game.

I like live-blogging, so I'm doing this for the All-Star game today; the game doesn't really matter, regardless of what MLB wants you to think, but I'm blogging it anyways, mainly to make fun of Tim McCarver. Hope you stick around.

8:01: By the way, I'm doing this chronologically top-to-bottom; lots of people live-blog bottom-to-top, which I don't like because it makes it harder to read afterwards.

8:02: First of many Barry Bonds mentions, though it comes after our first Eric Byrnes mention (sitting in a kayak with his dog in McCovey Cove, working for Fox. He should be on the field, but whatever...)

8:03: My Prediction: AL wins, 8-3. As I mentioned yesterday, the AL's pitching is just ridiculous. Think about it - Haren goes two innings, then they can throw Beckett, Verlander, Sabathia, Santana, Putz, Papelbon, and K-Rod, and none of them have to go more than one inning. How can the NL score?

8:06: This game isn't even going to start until probably 8:30. Wouldn't it be so much better to play this game at 6:00 on a weekend? I understand that the owners probably don't want to give up their weekend games, but this is supposed to be the sport's showcase. As a kid, I could only watch one or two innings...I usually taped the rest, but it wasn't the same...

8:12: Can we get Homer Simpson to replace Tim McCarver as Fox's number one analyst? He's smarter, although I would probably laugh at him less...

8:14: Nate Silver's got a live chat going over at BP, and Deadspin's live-blogging this thing as well...mine will be better, though. I'll promise you that.

8:18: Do the managers usually bring all their coaches to the All-Star game? Because Jim Leyland brought like six Tigers coaches. Maybe this is normal; I honestly can't remember.

8:21: Never mind, La Russa's got his whole gang there too. Hey, how do you think Eric Byrnes feels hearing Orlando Hudson and Jose Valverde being introduced as All-Stars while he's sitting in his kayak?

8:22: Okay, here's the matchup I want to see: C.C. Sabathia pitching to Miguel Cabrera, sponsered by Krispy Kreme. And I want John Kruk announcing.

8:23: Holy crap, Chris Young is tall. Did you know he went to Princeton?

8:25: AL Lineup: Ichiro, Jeter, Papi, A-Rod, Vlad, Magglio, Pudge, Polanco, Haren. Can anyone tell me why there isn't always a DH in the All-Star game? Who the hell wants to see Dan Haren hitting here? He'll get pinch-hit for anyways, but still...

8:26: NL Lineup: Reyes, Bonds, Beltran, Griffey, Wright, Fielder, Martin, Utley, Peavy. La Russa's mismanagement of this roster continues...what the hell is Beltran doing hitting third? He shouldn't even be on the team. Fielder should be third or fourth, and Utley should be near the top of the order too...certainly not hitting eighth...

8:37: A tribute to Willy Mays. For some reason, I thought they were playing a baseball game today. Silly me. There's no way I'm making it to the end of this...

8:42: Apparently next year's All-Star Game is in Colorado. Bring your Kleenex...it's going to be a moving Dante Bichette tribute, everybody!

8:45: Tim McCarver's first sentence: "What a brilliant tribute for a guy who exhibited every facet of the game was superb." That's word-for-word, unless I didn't hear him right...

8:52: And finally, we're about ready to start. I'm like Roger Clemens at this point - you can't count on me to go more than six innings.

8:54: We're underway...Ichiro with a groundball single through the second-base hole.

8:57: Peavy's throwing his sinking fastball, reading in at 92-93...Jeter swung through one, then hit a routine two-hopper into a 6-4-3 double play. Yeah, he's clutch. Ichiro didn't even slide into second...shows you what this game means to these players...

8:58: Joe Buck just said that one of the reasons Ortiz isn't hitting well is that Manny isn't giving him "his usual protection" behind him. First off, Manny's been fine...and secondly, how would his not doing well hurt Ortiz? People still aren't pitching around Ortiz, and even i they id, that wouldn't really hurt his numbers...

8:59: We have an error on a first baseman on a fairly rouine play...but shockingly, it isn't Ortiz making the error. Ortiz hit one right at Utley, but Fielder missed the throw.

9:01: A-Rod hits one hard into the hole...Wright makes the diving play, in plenty of time to throw Ortiz out at second. Inning over. This is our country.

9:03: Simpsons 2, Mellencamp 1.

9:04: Reyes with a base hit up the middle. Was Polanco shifted to the hole, or does he not have that much range? That ball was 10 feet to the right of second-base...

9:05: Question of the day: Will Reyes steal, even though Bonds is hitting?

9:06: Question answered. Reyes swipes second, a few feet ahead of Pudge's throw...

9:07: Bonds pops out to right field...that ball carried, though. Looked like Polanco was gonna have it all the way, but Vlad had to take over.

9:08: Haren's at 93 mph, and he's all over the corners...until he leaves one right over the plate. Beltran lines a shot into the stands, but foul.

9:10: Beltran swings through a 1-2 heater...I think Haren threw six fastballs to Beltran. That can't be right.

9:12: Griffey with a two-hopper up the middle...25 of the 30 starting shortstops in baseball get to that ball, but Jeter doesn't. Reyes scores; 1-0 NL.

9:13: Wright hits one right at Jeter...at least he can get to that one. NL up 1-0 after the first.

9:16: Penny in for Peavy...gets up 0-2 on Vlad quickly. He throws Vlad a third straight fastball, but down and out of the zone; Vlad breaks his bat and grounds out to Reyes.

9:19: Magglio flys out to right, and Pudge grounds out to short...still 1-0 NL. Penny threw seven pitches that inning; I wonder if he'll be back out there for the third.

9:28: 2 out, runner on 1st, Miguel Cabrera pinch-hitting for Penny. Cabrera had better stay in the game, or else La Russa's got some 'splaining to do...

9:30: Cabrera whiffs, and it's still 1-0 after two.

9:33: Penny's out after a tiring seven-pitch outing, and Ben Sheets is in. Sheets was just 6-7 last year, and his ERA wasn't outstanding, but he had a ridiculous 116:11 K/BB ratio. Polanco grounds out to short to start the inning.

9:34: Manny pinch-hitting, flys out to Griffey in right. We haven't even seen a three-ball count yet...at least this game is going quickly...(actually, I think Peavy went 3-2 to Ortiz)

9:36: Ichiro swings at a pitch at his ankles and bloops it into left for a single. Bonds has no range, obviously, but nobody would have gotten to that.

9:37: Jeter grounds one up the middle, for another single. Ken Rosenthal reports Ichiro and the M's are close to a 5 yr/$90 million deal, if I heard him right.

9:38: Ortiz rips a Sheets fastball, but it's right at Griffey. Three outs.

9:42: Reyes puts some wicked sidespin on his hit...it gets by A-Rod, and Reyes ends up with a 170-foot double. Will he try to steal third, with Bonds up?

9:44: Bonds starts to square around to bunt on the first pitch...I'm assuming that was a joke. Later in the count, he gets one up in the zone and drives it to left...Ordonez grabs it on the warning track. So close. Kinda curious why Reyes didn't tag up there...

9:45: Beltran grounds out to second...I still don't understand why he was hitting third. Reyes could've scored there if he was on third.

9:46: Leyland says he'll use Putz as his closer if the AL takes a lead into the ninth. Putz is having a great year...but why don't you choose K-Rod? He's been great his entire career.

9:47: Beckett sends Griffey down swinging with a nice fastball at the knees. We're seeing lots of fastballs today, all in the 94-95 range, and not many hits. Still 1-0 NL.

9:50: Mellencamp pulls even with the Simpsons, 2-2. This is our country.

9:51: Soriano's in left; Bonds' day is done. Cole Hamels is pitching for the NL. A-Rod grounds a changeup through the hole for a single. Reyes steals secon, pretty easily...got a good jump on the lefty Hamels.

9:53: Vlad grounds to short. One out.

9:55: 2 outs...Pudge singles to right, but A-Rod is out by 15 feet at home. He wasn't running at all down the third-base line...I'm wondering if his hamstring is all right...

9:58: A-Rod's still at third, so I guess his leg's okay. Why the hell did La Russa bring in Cabrera just as a pinch-hitter? Is Wright going to play the whole game at third? Is he going to play Freddy Sanchez at third? Cabrera's one of the three best hitters in the league...why give him only one at-bat?

9:59: Beckett's still pitching...Wright works a 3-2 count, then grounds to Brian Roberts at second.

10:01: Beckett is working behind a little more than you'd like to...Fielder drills a 2-0 pitch to center, but Ichiro is there to make the play. Two away.

10:02: Didn't think we'd hear the s-word mentioned tonight, but Ken Rosenthal brings up the very valid point that 50-70% of baseball was using steroids, so we can't really criticize Bonds that much for using them. Buck then goes on a minute-long rant that the chemists are still ahead of the testers, so people are still cheating by using stuff like HGH. Meanwhile, Beckett goes to another three-ball count but strikes out Russell Martin, without so much as a mention from the announcers. We're already through four innings, and it's still 1-0.

10:07: Chris Young is pitching, and Derrek Lee is at first. Tim McCarver points out that Chris Young has a .82 ERA at home, but doesn't mention that PETCO is one of the two or three most pitcher-friendly parks. I mean, it's still impressive, but a lot of the viewers don't know their baseball stadiums very well...how about at least mentioning that it's helped him?

10:09: And we have our first walk of the day...Young walks Brian Roberts on six pitches.

10:10: Posada batting for Beckett...presumably he'll stay in to catch, as Pudge has already caught four innings. He flys out to center, one out.

10:11: Hey, we haven't seen Chris Byrnes in a while...he throws in a baseball for his dog to get, except the dog goes swimming away in the other directions. So that's what happened to the Great Outdoor Games!

10:12: Ichiro with a shot to the right field wall...boy, he's been hot. It takes a really weird bounce off the wall, and goes the opposite way of how it looked like it would...Ichiro circles the bases for an inside-the-parker, and Roberts scores as well. 2-1 AL, and if they win, Ichiro's easily the MVP.

10:14: Jeter flys out to center, and then Morneau lines out to Griffey. But the AL retakes the lead off Chris Young, and now they're in control.

10:18: ~~Rich Garces~~ C.C. Sabathia is pitching for the AL, and Carlos Guillen is in for Captain Intangibles at short. Utley grounds to second for the first out.

10:19: Soriano flys out to Crawford in left. Not to belabor this point...but how does the NL score the rest of the way? They'll face Sabathia, Santana, Papelbon, K-Rod, and Putz from here on out.

10:20: Reyes with a gapper to left-center...but Hunter makes a nice play to cut it off and hold him to a single. Lee grounds out to the pitcher to end the inning.

10:21: Two pieces of information from the interview with La Russa (I know, I couldn't believe we actually learned something either)...First, Cabrera's injury meant that he could only pinch-hit. Second, La Russa says he'll keep Pujols as a utility guy to bring in if the game goes to extras, because he can play anywhere. Now, Pujols is a great player, and I bet he could do all right for himself anywhere on the field. At the same time, he's pretty slow...do you really want him at second base? His glove would be okay, but he'd have no range. And, more importantly, Pujols is the best hitter in the game...don't you want to guarantee that he'll get at least one at-bat, preferably two? I really don't like the way La Russa managed this ame, from the beginning of the process on.

10:24: A-Rod flies out to left. The surprising Francisco Cordero is pitching...he leads the NL in saves.

10:25: Vlad flies out to right on a pitch at his ankles. I'm kinda surprised Griffey is still out there; he's getting up there in years and the NL has a bunch of outfielders.

10:28: Only about 43,000 people in the stadium...must be a small park.

10:29: We now have two homers so far in the game...and they've come courtesy of Ichiro and Carl Crawford. Ths pitch was a slider, a little below the belt, and Crawford got all of it, taking it out to right-center, about five rows up.

10:30: Guillen grounds out to Utley to end the inning. 3-1 AL.

10:33: Verlander in to pitch for the AL...I guess that means Papelbon won't pitch? Verlander goes 3-0 on Beltran, before giving up a triple on 3-1. Vlad kind of misplayed that...not easy to play right in this park, though. Griffey up, nobody out.

10:35: Griffey with a line drive to deep right...Vlad makes the catch, but even he can't throw out Beltran on that one. 3-2 AL, Griffey has both RBIs for the senior circuit and will likely be the MVP if the NL wins.

10:36: Velocity update: Verlander's last two pitches have been at 99, and he hits 100 on a fastball to Wright...he breaks his bat, but gets the ball into shallow center for a blop single. I'd guess that those readings are pretty legit; Verlander doesn't always throw this hard, but given that he's only going one inning, it would make sense he's giving it all he can.

10:37: Matt Holliday pinch-hitting, and I'd hope he stays in the game...he takes a real bad cut at a sick curveball, though, to make the count 0-2...

10:38: Holliday almost bites at two more curveballs, but checks his swing both times; the count goes to 3-2

10:39: Wright goes on the pitch, Holliday hits a one-hopper to first...Morneau knocks the ball down and gets the out at first. Two down, tying run on second.

10:40: Martin hits a shot to right, but it lands 10 feet foul. He follows it up with a popout to second; the AL dodges a bullet.

10:45: Takashi Saito on the mound, and a whole different team behind him...Hudson at second, Sanchez at third, Rowand in center, McCann catching, and Holliday moves to right.

10:46: Roberts hits a routine grounder to second, and there's one out. Jorge Posada next to bat...

10:48: Tim McCarver on Takashi Saito: "You look at the numbers on Saito, and one of the most important is his age...he's 37 years old. What a great story, to be waiting so long for this honor." (not quite verbatum, but close). Um...Saito just came to America last year, when he was signed by the Dodgers before the 2006 season. So, he's been waiting all of a year and a half. On a related note, here's a link you might want to check out...

10:50: Saito goes 1-2-3, and it's still 3-2 going into the bottom of the seventh. NL will likely have to score at least one run off of Santana/K-Rod/Putz...

10:51: I don't want to make it seem like I'm unpatriotic or anything...but can we do away with singing God Bless America before the seventh inning stretch at every baseball game? I'm not sure I really have a problem with it in this situation, but is it really necessary to do every game?

10:53: Take me out to the ballgame, take me out to the crowd...

10:55: Thanks to Coors Light for exposing a major need in our daily lives - the mouths of our beer cans are too small. But it's okay now, Coors Light has wide-mouthed cans, so you'll never have this problem again!

10:56: On the mound: Johan Santana. Carlos Lee hits a couple shots, but they both hook foul.

10:57: Santana fans Lee with a dirty changeup at his shoelaces. One out.

10:58: Santana gets ahead of Soriano 0-2, then gets him looking with a change right down the middle.

10:59: Reyes hits a slow roller to short; inning over. He's still 3-for-4, though I'd be kinda pissed if I was J.J. Hardy about not getting into the game. 3-2 AL heading into the eighth.

11:02: Simpsons take a 3-2 lead; Mellencamp is running out of time to catch up.

11:03: Billy Wagner in for the Mets; Mike Lowell leads off with a single.

11:03: Best stat of the game so far: 0 appearances by Scooter the Baseball.

11:04: Sanchez has a little trouble fielding a popup (he's playing out of position at third; he's played second pretty much exclusively this year), but sticks with it and makes a nice play.

11:05: Sizemore strikes out swinging on a pitch that almost hits him; apparently, it's the NL's first strikeout of the game. Weird.

11:06: What's up with Billy Wagner? His fastball was just clocked at 95...and then he throws another 95-mph fastball, and Victor Martinez takes him deep down the left field line. 5-2 AL, and it's very tough to see the NL winning this game. Wagner's fastball is usually right around triple digits; I don't know what happened to his velocity.

11:09: After seven and a half innings, it's AL 5, NL 2. The senior circuit had better get at least one here if they want any chance. Papelbon's coming into the game, which I think is strange...Leyland said he's using Putz in the ninth, so this means K-Rod isn't getting into the game at all. K-Rod is the best reliever in the AL...I don't know why you wouldn't use him...

11:13: Paplebon gets ahead 0-2 on D-Lee, but leaves one right up the middle...Lee bloops it into shallow center and gets on base.

11:14: Uh...why exactly did Fox choose now as the time for a Chase Utley "Player Profile"? He left the game two innings ago. It's not like you didn't have time before...

11:15: You know it's late in the game when Buck and McCarver are talking about dancing. Or maybe I'm hallucinating. Papelbon fans Orlando Hudson with a splitter in the dirt, but Lee steals second easily.

11:18: Trevor Hoffman arming up for the NL...Paplebon goes to 3-2 on Rowand as Lee takes third on a passed ball.

11:20: Rowand fans on some high cheese. NL could really use a hit by Sanchez here.

11:21: Sanchez swings first-pitch...and flys out to center. That sound you just heard was the town of Pittsburgh not caring. 5-2 AL going into the ninth.

11:26: Again, Buck mentions the Padres' terrific pitching without mentioning the ballpark they play in. Look, they might have the best pitching in the game...but it's ridiculous to say that the ballpark has absolutely nothing to do with it. I haven't looked at many park-adjusted pitching stats lately, so I don't know if their pitching is the best or not.

11:27: Tim McCarver just cracked himself up while saying that the difference between Hoffman's fastball and changeup is great. I have no idea why.

11:28: Posada with a two-out double off the wall in dead center. Torii Hunter will try to make it a four-run game.

11:33: Hunter grounds out to third. Last chance for the NL; they need three runs.

11:35: If Pujols doesn't bat this inning for the NL, I want Tony La Russa fired immediately. I'm not even kidding.

11:36: Holliday leads off for the NL, against J.J. Putz. Putz is a fine choice to close this game - he's been the best reliever in baseball this season - but I would've liked to see K-Rod get into the game at some point...

11:37: Putz gets ahead of Holliday 0-2, then throws a ball low and away. Comes back with a 95-mph heater up and out of the zone, and Holliday bites. Two more outs to go.

11:38: Brian McCann up...he's not hitting well this year. Nothing La Russa can do about it, though, since he's the only catcher left for the NL.

11:39: Putz gets McCann 1-2, and then gets him to pop out to short. Two down.

11:40: The pitcher's spot is up, so Pujols should pinch-hit, right? Wrong. For some reason, Tony La Russa sends Dimitri Young up to the plate. Ugh. Young's career OBP: .349. Pujols' career OBP: .418. If you make an out here, the game's over...you absolutely have to have your best hitter up right now.

11:43: Putz hits 98 on the gun, but Young fouls it off, to stay alive at 1-2. Pujols should be batting...

11:44: The NL gets a break...a slow roller into the hole, and Brian Roberts can't hang on. Young reaches first, though that still doesn't validate La Russa's decision.

11:44: Alfonso Soriano batting...if he gets on, it's J.J. Hardy.

11:45: Putz gets into a hole against Soriano...count goes to 3-1. There's nothing Soriano can do here more valuable than walking.

11:46: That's okay, too...Sorano goes yard right down the right-field line. Again, it really didn't matter whether Soriano walked there or homered; Hardy still has to score for these runs to matter anyways.

11:47: I wonder if K-Rod's warming up...this is Hardy's first at-bat of the game. Derrek Lee is on deck.

11:48: Fastball, 96 mph, outer half, for strike one...but then Putz misses with a slider. 2-1. K-Rod is warming up, by the way, and Valverde's getting warm for the NL.

11:49: Fastball away...3-1. Putz doesn't want to give up another homer, but he can't put the tying run on base.

11:50: Ball low...Hardy gets on first. Leyland's making the change, as he's taking out Putz and bringing in K-Rod. I thought K-Rod should have started the inning in the first place. Hardy's got below-average speed, by the way.

11:52: Do you bring in Pujols for Lee here? On one hand, it's not a huge advantage, and it limits your flexibility if you go to extras...but on the other hand, you have to agree that Pujols is the better hitter.

11:53: D-Lee hits a hard grouder down the line, right to Lowell (guarding the lines), but foul. 1-1 count.

11:54: Dirty curveball on 1-1, but Lee checks his swing...nice block by Posada to keep Hardy at first.

11:55: Great curve on the inner half...2-2. I wouldn't be surprised if he throws another one of those here.

11:55: Sure enough...but Lee lays off it. Full count, this means Hardy's running on the pitch.

11:56: Lee checks his swing on a curveball...didn't go! Tying run on second, winning run at first.

11:57: Orlando Hudson is still hitting...WHERE THE HELL IS PUJOLS! Hudson's not a bad player, and Pujols would be out of position in extra innings...but it's Albert F---ing Pujols! If the NL loses this game, La Russa will share a very big portion of the blame.

11:57: Three terrible pitches by K-Rod and he's behind 3-0. Is Okajima warming up? Aaron Rowand is on deck...Pujols could hit for him, too, and then move to a corner outfield spot if the game goes to extras.

11:58: K-Rod finally throws a strike to get to 3-1, but then another ball in the dirt. Three straight walks...Leyland can't really make a change, though.

11:59: Nope, Rowand's hitting. If the Mets lose the World Series in seven games because they didn't get home field advantage, he should start mailing death threats to La Russa. I'm not even joking here.

12:00: K-Rod gets strike one over...Rowand hits the second pitch...and flies out to right. Game over, the AL holds on to win, but not by much. Managers always get too much blame whenever their team loses, but La Russa deserves a ton of blame for his refusal to bat Pujols in this one. I'm not sticking around for the MVP presentation, but I assume it will be Ichiro. Thanks to everyone (anyone?) who was reading; it was fun.

Buster, Buster, Buster...

2007-07-10T18:07:00.001-04:00

Buster Olney is one of the better baseball writers at ESPN. His daily blog is a great read, he's as in touch with the people around baseball (for trade rumors and the like) as anybody, and I love listening to him when he's on the radio. So you can imagine my disappointment when I picked up the most recent issue of ESPN the Magazine the other day and saw this on the cover: "Buster Olney's All-Grinder Team". That's never a good sign. So, although I don't really like doing it, I have to make fun of Buster here and call him out for the lack of information here. Enjoy! (Make sure to check back in a bit for my All-Star Game live-blog!)

The article is called "Premium Grinders", and it picks out an "all-star" team of "grinders", one at each position in each league.

National League

C: Yadier Molina
More invested in his pitchers than in his batting average

That's a fancy way of saying he sucks at hitting. And I mean he really, really sucks at hitting. His career OPS+ is 66. His OBP last year was .274. Molina's EqA last year was .205, and his hitting alone cost the Cardinals more than one win (-11 Batting Runs Above Replacement). He is a very good fielder, and because he is a catcher, he is still somewhat valuable. But Olney seems to be saying that Molina is more of a "grinder" because of his bad hitting.

1B: Todd Helton
Pitchers say he's the game's toughest two-strike hitter

Okay...but why do we have to take the word of pitchers? We have a little thing called statistics we can use to verify that. Helton's hitting .261 with two strikes this year. That's well above the major league average, which is .201. But I'd rather have someone like Placido Polanco, who is hitting .354 with two strikes. For his career, Helton has an OPS of .828 with two strikes. Albert Pujols (the first guy I looked up) has an .809 OPS with two strikes, in a much tougher hitter's park. Is Helton a great two-strike hitter? Sure. Should we just take the "pitchers" word that he's the toughest two-strike hitter? No.

2B: Chase Utley
Covered with infield dirt by the third inning every night

Here are the first two in-game pictures returned by Google when you search "Chase Utley". There's a little dirt on him in the first picture, and none at all in the second picture. Maybe these were taken in the second inning. Obviously, Olney didn't mean this literally, but it's a very generic thing you can say about pretty much anybody.

SS: Jimmy Rollins
Loves the pressure of playing the villain on the road

Wait...you forgot...how can you...don't you know David Eckstein plays shortstop in the National League? He legally changed his middle name last year to "Grinder"! He won't be happy to hear about this. While I appreciate the fact that Olney didn't go with everybody's favorite undersized shortstop and doesn't have just white players on the team (as most people tend to when talking about this kind of thing), this is another very generic thing that you could say about anybody. And Rollins' career OPS on the road is just .738.

3B: David Wright
Plays with a passion that's equal to his talent

Fortunately, he has talent, because otherwise he would suck. By the way, he's white and he's from New York. Funny how we never hear about Jose Bautista's passion...

OF: Aaron Rowand
Will sacrifice life, limb and even his face to make a catch

He's a grinder, because he runs into walls! That's how real men play baseball! Unlike that incredible pussy, Bo Jackson, who ran up the wall instead to avoid a collision, because he's not a grinder. By the way, does Rowand really run into walls all the time? Because it seems to me he's been living off that one play where he face-planted into the wall for a couple years now...it was a good catch, but come on, it was just one play. And Buster, Rowand will actually sacrifice his life to catch a baseball? That seems a little overboard, doesn't it? No? Okay, let's move on.

OF: Juan Pierre
Shows up six hours before game time to practice his bunting

That explains why that's his only skill! You know what would make him an even better player? If he would show up six hours before game time to practice his hitting! Because his OBP is just .311 right now, and his slugging percentage is a woeful .338, good for 168th out of 176 qualifiers. And Buster, does this make him more of a grinder?

OF: Randy Winn
"No flash," says a GM. "The guy just goes after it."

Uh...can somebody please tell me what the hell this means? Carlos Beltran has so much flash that a guy once mistook him for a Kodak camera. Winn just "goes after it"? Can you name somebody who doesn't "go after it"? Who is this GM, anyways? Wait...don't tell me. It's Steve Phillips, isn't it? That's gotta be Steve Phillips, right?

P: John Smoltz
Ultimate competitor when pitching, golfing, playing Ping-Pong...

From what I've heard about Smoltz, this is true, although most of what I've read about Smoltz was written by Olney himself. It seems to me that Olney has just taken the nine guys he's heard the best anecdotes about and labeled them "grinders".

So far, here are the criteria for being a "grinder", according to Olney:

Sucks at hitting
Pitchers say he's good with two strikes
Covered with infield dirt (as opposed to the other kinds of dirt one sees on a baseball field)
Loves playing on the road
Plays with "passion"
Will give up their life in order to catch a baseball
Practices bunting but sucks at hitting (again)
Plays ping-pong "competitively"

And we've still got the National League to go!

American League:

C: Jorge Posada/Jason Varitek
Like Munson/Fisk but without the ego and animosity

So, this means...what? They caught at the same time in the two biggest markets in baseball? They were good players? What does this mean, and how does it make them "grinders"?

1B: Kevin Youkilis
Triple-A talent, big league determination

There's a larger article that explains this more, and the gist of it is that Youkilis is a "grinder" for taking lots of pitches and walking a lot. So...plate discipline doesn't count as "talent"? Don't tell Barry Bonds this, he might get angry. Bonds walks more than Youkilis...why couldn't you call him a "grinder"? I'd say he has as much "determination" as Youkilis does...

2B: Placido Polanco
Does whatever's needed: relay throw, bunt, hit and run, two-out RBI.

Not many people remember this, but when he was back in Seattle, A-Rod would repeatedly not make relay throws. His outfielders would throw him the ball, and he'd just stand there with it, because he refused to make relay throws, because he's not a "grinder". Also, Polanco has just 14 two-out RBI this year...yes, RBI is a dumb stat, but Olney brought it up. Polanco has 154 total 2-out RBI in ten seasons in the big leagues.

SS: Derek Jeter
Grinds it out in the clutch: He's hitting .431 with RISP this year.

How surprising! Jeter, a grinder? Who would have guessed? By the way, do you know what Mr. Clutch hit with RISP in 2005? .261. In 2004: .281. For his career: .312 (his overall BA is .318). That's because clutch hitting is mostly based on luck, and not due to some innate ability or "grinderness" (look for that word in next year's Merriam-Webster).

3B: Eric Chavez
Embraces responsibility as one of team's only high-paid veterans

Uh...does that mean he's a grinder because gets paid a lot? It's A-Rod's lucky day! I don't really know why making more money gives Chavez more "responsibility", and I don't get why being responsible makes him a "grinder".

OF: Curtis Granderson
Ranks among league leaders in triples, hustle, and blogs

Otherwise known as the grinder's triple crown. Other guys have tied him in blogs (1), but nobody can match his 15 triples. And his Hustle Index of 113.7 is bested only by David Eckstein's 138.3; Derek Jeter is third with 104.9. And yes, I just made that stat up, to demonstrate how dumb it is to say he "ranks among the league leaders in hustle".

OF: Carl Crawford
Will get career hit No. 1,000 well before he turns 27 in August 2008.

And this makes him a "grinder"...how? Being a good hitter at a young age makes you a "grinder"? Hey, Albert Pujols, you're in luck!

OF: Grady Sizemore
Leaves more skin on warning tracks than any other outfielder

Actually, that's false; Aaron Rowand has him bested in Skin Left On Warning Tracks (SLOWT) with 36 square inches, but Sizemore is close with 32.5. Making up statistics is fun! By the way, all six outfielders Buster names are center fielders. Corner outfielders can't be "grinders"?

DH: David Ortiz
Nagging leg injuries haven't kept him out of the lineup

How can a DH be considered a "grinder"? All he has to do is go to bat four times. Come on, Buster, if you're going to make a completely meaningless and arbitrary list, at least have it make some sense...

P: Roy Halladay
Resumed workouts just days after having his appendix removed in May.

Jon Lester returned from cancer. That doesn't make him "grindery" enough for you? Other pitchers have battled injuries that actually, you know, have to do with pitching...stuff like elbow problems and stuff. I fail to see how Halladay is more of a "grinder" than any other pitcher.

So, to recap, Buster Olney's definition of a "grinder", in no particular order:

Sucks at hitting
Is good at hitting
Practices bunting but sucks at hitting
Walks a lot
Pitchers say he's good with two strikes
"Grinds it out in the clutch" by hitting exactly the same as always
Covered with infield dirt
Leads the league in hustle and blogs
Does whatever's needed
Leaves skin on the warning tracks
Loves playing on the road
Plays with "passion"
Willing to give up his life in order to catch a baseball
Makes lots of money and is "responsible"
Catcher in Boston or New York
Swings a bat four times a game while sort of injured
Comes back quickly from appendicitis
Plays ping-pong

So, by my count, everybody in the major leagues is a "grinder". Except maybe that lazy, selfish ungrindery Pat Burrell.

MLB Midseason, Part II: All-Star Game Preview

2007-07-09T21:27:00.000-04:00

I've got no other way to do this, so let's break down the respective All-Star rosters, position-by-position. It doesn't matter a whole lot who the starters are, since they figure to play five, six innings tops, so we'll consider all the players at a certain position here. I'll be live-blogging the game tonight, not because it really matters but just because I feel like it. (By the way, BP Unfiltered has a nice HR Derby live-blog going on right now...)

Catcher:

AL: Ivan Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez
NL: Russell Martin, Brian McCann

The NL has the edge for the first couple innings, as Martin is in the midst of a breakout season while Pudge shouldn't even be in San Francisco. But the backup advantage is easily towards the AL, as Posada and V-Mart are having great years. Neither plays defense that well (especially Martinez), but it's not like people steal a whole lot of bases in the All-Star game anyways, especially in the later innings. Offensively, Posada and Martinez have been stellar this season.

Edge: AL

First Base:

AL: David Ortiz, Justin Morneau
NL: Prince Fielder, Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols, Dimitri Young

I'm surprised the AL went with just two first basemen; I would have liked to see someone like Kevin Youkilis get on the team. The main value of most of the NL first basemen will be as pinch hitters; remember, the pitchers will be batting because the game's in an NL park, and nobody wants to see the pitchers hit, so we'll see a lot of pinch-hitters. Ortiz at first will be very interesting to watch, defensively; he hasn't played there in a while because he isn't good at it, so we'll see if his defense causes problems for the AL team. All these guys are solid hitters.

Edge: NL

Second Base:

AL: Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts
NL: Chase Utley, Orlando Hudson, Freddy Sanchez

The NL gets the edge here just because of Utley, who is the only great second baseman in the game today. Roberts should be starting for the AL; Polanco can field well and hits for a high average, but those are his only skills. I really have absolutely no clue why the NL carried three second basemen and two shortstops; personally, I would have gone with four shortstops and Utley as the lone second baseman, and played someone like Edgar Renteria at second. Sanchez has no business whatsoever being on this team; there were two Pirate pitchers having much, much better years in Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny.

Edge: NL

Third Base:

AL: Alex Rodrigez, Mike Lowell
NL: David Wright, Miguel Cabrera

A-Rod and Cabrera are stars, and Wright and Lowell are definitely the lesser players. I'd take A-Rod over Cabrera, and I'd take Wright over Lowell, so this one's very even. Cabrera's a top-three hitter in the NL, by the way, although some people don't know it yet.

Shortstop:

AL: Derek Jeter, Carlos Guillen, Michael Young
NL: Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy

As I said earlier, it's just criminal that there are only two shortstops on the NL roster; Hanley Ramirez, Edgar Renteria, and Jimmy Rollins all have the right to be angry about this. The position in the NL is much deeper, but I actually think the edge goes to the AL here - both Jeter and Guillen are OPSing above .900. Young really doesn't add much to the team; he's probably an late-inning pinch-hitter for one of the pitchers.

Slight Edge: AL

Outfield:

AL: Vlad Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki, Magglio Ordonez, Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rios, Grady Sizemore
NL: Carlos Beltran, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Matt Holliday, Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand, Alfonso Soriano

I would have rather seen Curtis Granderson on the team instead of Manny, but there's not a big difference there. The NL has a couple guys who don't belong - I could do without Beltran, Rowand, or Lee, and instead have someone like Eric Byrnes or Hunter Pence. There's talent on both sides, but I'm definitely taking the AL guys here...there are just so many great players in that outfield.

Edge: AL

Pitchers:

AL: Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, Bobby Jenks, John Lackey, Gil Meche, Jonathan Papelbon, J.J. Putz, Francisco Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, Hideki Okajima
NL: Jake Peavy, Francisco Cordero, Cole Hamels, Trevor Hoffman, Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Ben Sheets, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Brandon Webb, Chris Young

Well, the NL got Brian Fuentes off the team, but this staff still seems somewhat mediocre. John Maine is still off the team, and while they made the right decision in putting guys like Webb and Oswalt on the team (guys who have been great their entire career, even if they aren't putting up outstanding numbers this year), there are still a lot of hittable pitchers on that team, like Valverde and Saito. And this is the strength of the AL team...that is a murderer's row of pitchers. Imagine this...Haren goes two innings, then they can throw Beckett, Verlander, Sabathia, Santana, Putz, Papelbon, and K-Rod, and none of them have to go more than one inning. How do you score runs off that?

Big Edge: AL

Overall, I'm picking the AL to win, probably by a comfortable margin. Their offense is at least as good, and their pitching is a whole lot better. Predicting the outcome of one individual game is so luck-based that it is pretty much worthless, but I'll say the AL wins 8-3.

MLB Midseason, Part I: HR Derby Preview

2007-07-09T14:48:00.001-04:00

Arguably the most interesting part of All-Star weekend to hardcore baseball fans is the futures game, featuring the best minor leaguers. I didn't get a chance to watch it, because I had a game yesterday evening, but Justin Upton (D-Backs CF prospect, brother of B.J. Upton) was the biggest star, showing why he's absolutely ready for the Show. Here's a link to Nate Silver's live-blog of the game.

Anyways, tonight is the Home Run Derby, which may be the most popular part of the All-Star weekend. Of course, trying to predict what will happen in the Derby is impossible and completely based on luck, but I'll try to do it anyways. But first, a quick tangent explaining the so-called HR Derby curse...

Bobby Abreu won the Derby in 2005, hitting an amazing 41 taters for the contest. Before the Derby, Abreu had hit 18 home runs. After the Derby, Abreu managed just six more homers for the year. Some people pointed to this as evidence that Abreu "messed up his swing" in the Derby, or that participating was a bad thing for Abreu. Some other previous winners had seen their production drop off also, so people began to think that it was bad for people to be in the Derby. Ryan Howard hit 30 homers in the second half last year, but that was labeled an "exception". I know of Yankee fans that were glad that A-Rod declined to take part in the Derby, because they feared he might mess up his swing also.

So, is this Derby curse real? In a word, no. I will explain this through a simple example:

Player A, Player B, and Player C are all "true" 30-HR hitters; that is, they will all hit exactly 30 homeruns every year. (Obviously, this is impossible in real life, but this is just a hypothetical example.) In one particular year, here's how they hit their homers:

Player A hits 23 homers in the first half of the season, and hits just 7 in the second half.

Player B hits 15 homers in the first half and 15 in the second half.

Player C hits just 7 homers in the first half, but 23 after.

Guess which one gets invited to the Homerun Derby? Only player A would be there, because he has 23 homeruns. So he hits only 7 homers after, and people say it's because the Derby messed up his swing, when it actually is just that he was doing what he was supposed to do.

To summarize, almost all the people selected to participate in the Derby are hitting more homers than they were expected to, so it makes sense that they'd hit less after the break. It doesn't go beyond that.

Okay, then...now, who will win the Derby tonight? The contestants are: Vlad Guerrero, Justin Morneau, Magglio Ordonez, and Alex Rios from the AL, and Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, and the newly added Matt Holliday (subbed for the injured Miguel Cabrera) from the NL.

First of all, in my opinion, you have to pick a righty. It is only 309 feet down the right-field line, but right-center is as deep as 421 feet, and that wall is really high...home runs will just die out there. The lefties certainly add to the drama, as they are the ones who will be hitting balls into the water, but I think the righties are much more likely to win. If you really want to pick a lefty, you may want to go with a guy like Morneau, who hits a lot of homers to the opposite field. So, first of all, Morneau, Howard, and Fielder are eliminated.

After that, there's no real key to picking things. There's a trend that I identified last year, and that is that underrated players tend to win the Derby. In 2003, Garrett Anderson was underrated (that was back when he was actually good), and he won the thing. In 2004, Miguel Tejada was still somewhat underrated (not really anymore), and he won. And in 2005, Abreu was very underrated, although obviously getting traded to New York last year helped him get more than his due. Last year, Howard didn't really fit the bill; he wasn't thought of as a superstar, but he did win the ROY in 2005.

So, of the five righties, who is the most underrated? Pujols and Vlad have been superstars for years; it would be ridiculous to say he's underrated. Magglio is getting some love this year, and he really hasn't been that good the last couple years. Alex Rios is a little underrated, but he's also not that good. The obvious choice here is Matt Holliday - the average baseball fan may know his name, but probably doesn't know who he is. Holliday is much more of a batting-average-type hitter than a homerun hitter, but I'm still picking him. My next choice is Vlad, by the way.

I'll have an All-Star game preview up later today, if I can.

Clearing the Bases: Bloggers can make a difference!

2007-07-08T23:34:00.000-04:00

Clearing the Bases: going through some of the most notable links from the past week...

Hey, all you bloggers out there...you can make a difference! Felix Hernandez has turned things around, partly due to the blog U.S.S. Mariner...

Breaking News: The Mark Buehrle saga is over…he re-signs with the White Sox for 4 yrs/$56 million.

TSOB has a short post on a strange Joe Torre quote regarding Derek Jeter's defense, which I mainly include because of this great excerpt: "…This is rich, by the way, the idea that anything good that Derek Jeter does could possibly go undetected. When Jeter kicks a rock, there are three stories in the New York papers about how he's cleaning up the streets."

Mr. Irrelevant gives you the worst all-stars of the 21st century (don't know how Mike Williams was left off, though).

MLB: Pissed off at ESPN?

Some information about pitchers being able to go deep into games: Striking out batters doesn't make you less likely to throw more innings…but walking batters does.

Uh…who's gonna play the outfield for the White Sox next year?

A timely article on Pat Burrell, the player I keep defending...

Keith Law breaks down the Futures Game rosters, and then describes the game's standouts and disappointments (both articles insider-only)…Here's a Futures Game blog that's open to the public…

Some great analysis on Tim Hudson, using some info I wish I had access to…

Here's a funny story about a made-up quote and a writer who forgot to check his source thoroughly...

If this describes you, you shouldn't be reading this blog…

Random Video of the Week #1: Stephon Marbury goes crazy (make sure to watch the last two minutes)...

Random Video of the Week #2: Public Service Announcement: Don't drink and dunk

Random Video of the Week #3: If you know any tennis players, please, don't let them rap. It's for the good of society.

Random Video of the Week #4: Soccer? This is cool, trust me.

Random Video of the Week #5: Combining our last two subjects...that's right, it's indoor soccer players rapping! This is the train wreck to end all train wrecks. Please, watch this.

Stark Criticism

2007-07-07T23:34:00.000-04:00

Jayson Stark does some great work compiling his Rumblings and Grumblings, a collection of rumors from around the world of baseball. And I do enjoy his Useless Info work; here's one example of the kind of stuff he finds. But I read his Midseason Awards column, and it seemed like something you'd find from a less knowledgable baseball writer. So I'll take my cue from Fire Joe Morgan and go through some of the more puzzling parts of the column, with the intent of...well, I'm not sure exactly what this could accomplish.

AL MVP of the half-year -- Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
Alex Rodriguez may have had a more eye-popping year, especially if you factor in home runs and back-page tabloid appearances.

Jayson, you didn't know that Back-Page Tabloid Appearances was a criteria for the MVP voting? Last year, Derek Jeter led the league in BPTA for the fourth consecutive year with 132, just a couple shy of his all-time record of 141 back in 2004. That was one of the reasons it was so surprising that Justin Morneau edged him for the MVP award. Some critics have argued that BPTA is unfair to people who play in smaller markets, but MLB has yet to change the rule. A-Rod currently is on pace for a record-shattering 167 BPTA. I fully expect this to be the most interesting subplot of the second half of the season.

By the way, I love how Stark throws "home runs" into this sentence, to make it seem like they aren't important. What is the best thing anybody can do in any given time at bat? Hit a home run. So you should probably factor home runs into the MVP equation.

But the Yankees haven't been a factor in the division or wild-card races for more than about 20 minutes all season.

Okay, here we go again. I don't have nearly enough time here to discuss this, but my feeling is that the team that a player is on should have absolutely no bearing whatsoever on who wins the MVP voting. For example, I would vote for a .320/.400/.530 hitter on the Royals before I would vote for a .290/.360/.500 hitter on the Red Sox. But that's a debate for another time.

The more pressing issue here is that the Yankees are still in the race. Depending on whose odds you check, they have roughly a 10-20% chance of making the playoffs. (Here's two odds sites: Baseball Prospectus and coolstandings.com.) And, to make matters worse, you can make a very good case that Alex Rodriguez is the only reason they are even in the race. Even if you're going with the conventional definition of "value", you'd have to say that A-Rod's been pretty valuable to the Yankees, wouldn't you?

Meanwhile, right there in the middle of the most lethal lineup in baseball, Ordonez is headed for a season that not even Ty Cobb ever duplicated in Detroit. And you can look that up.

Another little-known criteria for the MVP voting: To win the MVP, a player must have a season that even Ty Cobb never duplicated. Although Magglio still has a lot of catching up to do in fistfights and Racially Insulting Statements (although he could make up some ground in the former category the next time Ozzie Guillen comes to town). By the way, Ordonez's OPS+ is currently 177. Cobb bested that for ten straight years, from 1909 to 1918. This isn't what Stark is talking about (see the next paragraph), but it makes the point that Stark's statement is stupid.

If Ordonez keeps mashing at his current clip, he'd finish with 68 doubles, a .369 average, 137 RBIs, 135 runs scored, 93 extra-base hits, a .445 on-base percentage and a 1.053 OPS. And even if we lower the doubles threshold to 50, no one has matched all those numbers since Hugh Duffy did it for the 1894 Boston Beaneaters.

That's completely irrelevant. If in 1921 Tris Speaker hits 83 doubles, drives in 160 runs and scores 170, gets 140 XBH, OBP's .507 and OPSes 1.200, but his batting average is just .368, he doesn't qualify. People come up with these types of comparisons all the time (often to make a case for somebody to get into the Hall of Fame), and it's a bad way of looking at numbers. If I looked through enough categories, I think I could come up with some numbers to group Neifi Perez with Cal Ripken, Jr. and Honus Wager as the best shortstops of all-time. By the way, almost all the numbers Stark mentions are either related (doubles and XBH; AVG, OBP and OPS) or unimportant (doubles, AVG, RBI/runs).

Oh, and we didn't even mention Ordonez is hitting .443 with runners in scoring position. Almost makes you want to run out and visit an Austrian knee surgeon, doesn't it?

Here are Ordonez's slugging percentages for the past four seasons: .485/.436/.477/.608. If this were 2004, you know the s-word (steroids) would be coming out in droves regarding Magglio. My point: this is a remarkably fluky year, and there's no reason to expect him to perform this well in the second half.

NL MVP of the half-year -- Matt Holliday, Rockies
How come most people look at Rockies hitters and automatically disqualify them from consideration for all honors, trophies, awards or emphatic high-fives?

Uh...because Coors Field is played at an altitude above 5,000 feet, making balls carry more and making it easier to get hits and home runs? Because Coors Field's park factor is always at or near the top of the list of the best hitter's parks? By the way, Todd Helton may not have won any MVP awards, but his 1,386 career Emphatic High-Fives Received (EHFR) are good for fifth all-time among first basemen, making him a strong Hall Of Fame candidate.

All right, don't bother answering that. We know why.

Oh, sorry. You should have said this sooner.

But anybody who thinks Holliday is just another figment of baseball's most pervasive altitude sickness clearly hasn't been paying attention. True, he's hitting over 100 points higher at home (.405) than on the road (.301).

Yes, Holliday is a great hitter, and yes, he is underrated by the public. But you're not really helping yourself by mentioning his home/road splits; the impression I'm getting is that he'd be "just" a .300 hitter in any other ballpark. His stats are inflated by Coors Field, and even his raw numbers aren't as good as those of a bunch of other players.

But his road OPS (.828) is still higher than the road OPS of Chase Utley, Carlos Lee, Derrek Lee, Jason Bay, Torii Hunter or Grady Sizemore.

So, this is cherry-pick-random-players-who-fit-your-argument time? Cool. That road OPS is lower than the road OPS of Kelly Johnson, Casey Blake, Josh Willingham, Xavier Nady, Shannon Stewart, Randy Winn, Corey Hart, and Brandon Phillips. It's 34th among qualifiers in the NL alone. Bay's having a terrible year overall, by the way.

Plus, it was hard not to notice that it was Holliday who got more votes in the players' all-star balloting than any other player.

How was that hard not to notice? Do you really believe these guys are the most knowledgable and impartial people to decide who the best players are? Why not just let them vote for the MVP, then? These same players voted Brian Fuentes into the All-Star game as well, by the way (it wasn't La Russa's decision, it was the players'; La Russa made plenty of questionable decisions, but you can't blame him for this one).

We admit we were leaning toward Prince Fielder in this MVP race for a long time.

That would be smart. Fielder's OPS is .980, fourth in the NL, and he doesn't get the park effect boost that Holliday does. Plus, in case you care, Fielder's team is leading the division and has the best record in the league.

But in reality, both Holliday and Utley have had more of an all-around impact on their teams than Fielder, who is batting just .232 with men in scoring position and only .154 with RISP and two outs. So why Holliday over Utley? Because Utley's home-road splits (.387 home average, .266 road) are even wider than Holliday's, among other reasons.

Utley would be a good choice because he plays second base, which is a much tougher defensive position than first or left field. But, as Stark mentions, he also gets help from an extreme hitter's park; my personal MVP ballot would go Fielder-Utley-Holliday, with Bonds fourth. But, more importantly, why does Stark say that Holliday and Utley "have had more of an all-around impact" than Fielder...and then just go on to talk about more hitting stats? How about mentioning that Utley plays a tougher defensive position, or that he runs better, or something? And Fielder's had exactly 26 at-bats with RISP and two outs...sample sizes don't get much smaller than that.

Even though the Rockies may be only hanging around the periphery of the NL West and wild-card races, they do have a better record since May 15 than the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies or Brewers. You think that might have something to do with that left fielder of theirs who's hanging with the league leaders in batting, RBIs, slugging, doubles, multi-hit games, hits and OPS? We do.

Woohoo! Holliday plays half his games at the best hitter's park in recent history, and he's "hanging with the league leaders" in seven random stats, of which two or three are meaningful? He must be the MVP!

NL LVP -- Pat Burrell, Phillies
When a team is paying a man 13 million bucks a year, it would kind of like him to be one of the best players in the league. But in this case, the Phillies aren't asking that of Burrell anymore. They'd just settle for having the guy actually seem worthy of starting a game once in a while. That isn't how it's worked out, though.

Well, if you've been reading my blog (very unlikely), you'd know that I'd jump all over this one, as I just wrote about Burrell a couple days ago. And I was much more positive than Stark was. Burrell gets underrated for the same reason Adam Dunn gets underrated: lots of fans still look just at batting average, and think strikeouts are bad.

The one-time No. 1 pick in the whole 1998 draft has fallen so far, he just got benched nine times in a span of 13 games.

And the reason for that is that Charlie Manuel is an idiot. Burell's OPS+ is 101 - that means he's giving you basically league-average production. You can talk about the money all you want, but this guy should never be getting benched. By the way, here's a list of every #1 draft pick from the '90s: Chipper Jones, Brien Taylor, Phil Nevin, Alex Rodriguez, Paul Wilson, Darin Erstad, Kris Benson, Matt Anderson, Burrell, Josh Hamilton. I'd take Burrell over any of them except Jones and A-Rod. My point: Being a #1-overall draft pick in baseball is no guarantee of success, so a #1 pick shouldn't be labeled a "bust" if he's not a perennial All-Star.

Which might have something to do with the fact that he's hitting .159 since April 26, with 42 strikeouts and only 26 hits. (Sheez, that means his missing average is 100 points higher than his batting average.)

In a related story, Bud Selig just announced that all stats before April 26 don't count for this year. Burrell's hitting just .209, but his OBP is .373 (very good), and his slugging percentage is .391 (not great, but that's mostly a function of his low BA). By the way, here's a list of the top ten strikeout leaders in baseball last year: Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Curtis Granderson, Bill Hall, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Bay, Richie Sexson, Grady Sizemore, Johnny Peralta, Nick Swisher. All these guys except Peralta and Granderson OPSed above .840. Next on the list is Jim Thome and his 1.014 OPS. Strikeouts are not necessarily bad.

There's still hope, though. Burrell did have more homers and a higher slugging percentage last year than Magglio Ordonez, Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez. And boy, do the Phillies need another productive right-handed bat. So since $13-million men tend to get lots and lots of chances, we're betting you won't be seeing Burrell slip into oblivion any time soon.

Burrell also had a .388 OBP last year, significantly better than any of the other guys you listed. Meaning he was better than any of those three guys last year. Meaning it's not a stretch to say he'll be better, or at least as good, as these guys will be in the second half. (Weird comparables for Stark to choose, though...it was Fielder's and Gonzalez's first full year in the big leagues, so it makes sense they wouldn't have done very well.)

That was fun. Again, no ill will against Stark...he's usually a great writer, but I had to call him out for this article. It was fun.

Around the Horn: NL East

2007-07-06T18:32:00.000-04:00

New York: The Mets were thought to be easily the best team in the NL at the beginning of the season, but I'm not sure that's true anymore; personally, I'd probably take either the Brewers or the Padres ahead of them at this point. Their lineup was supposed to be amazing, but they're just eighth in the league in runs scored. None of their regulars have an OPS above .900, though David Wright is just a few points below it, and Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are also in the 800's. Shawn Green has a .770 OPS, but that certainly doesn't tell the whole story; he's hitting a stellar .309/.356/.511 (BA/OBP/SLG) against righties, but shouldn't be in the lineup against lefties (.208/.274/.273). Unfortunately, due to the Mets' injury problems and talent problems at the corner outfield spots, they have to keep Green in the lineup pretty much every day. Moises Alou hit well when he was playing, but he's been out since mid-May due to injury, meaning the Mets have to keep giving at-bats to players like Carlos Gomez (.303 OBP, though he's injured too) and Ricky Ledee (who had an OBP of .242 last year). Lastings Milledge has been hurt, though I'm not sure they'd want to bring him up even if he was healthy. I guess his trade value must be kinda shot, as the Mets don't like his personality but haven't dealt him yet. Second base and catcher have been problem areas for the Mets as well; Paul Lo Duca hasn't hit for any power this year, and he's not getting on base that often either, and Damion Easley and Jose Valentin haven't given the Mets much at second.

One surprise for the Mets this year has been their pitching; they're 5th in the NL in runs allowed. John Maine has been excellent, though he was somehow snubbed from the All-Star roster so Tony La Russa could bring on a few extra relievers. Oliver Perez is also having a surprisingly good year; he's got a 3.16 ERA, the first time it's been under 5 since 2004. Perez's K rate is actually down a little from past years, but he's actually found his control; he cut his walk rate in half from the last two years. He has allowed an abnormally low amount of hits this year, which probably won't continue, but his ERA won't rise that much, thanks to his newfound control. The other Mets starters have been decent; they could probably use another starter for depth reasons, but I'm not sure it's a pressing need. The Mets' bullpen has been terrific; Billy Wagner has been lights-out as the closer, and Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano have ERAs below 3.

The Mets were considered favorites to deal for Mark Buehrle a couple weeks ago, but that seems very unlikely now; Buehrle may not be traded, and if he is, it probably won't be to the Mets. They still do seem to be unwilling to trade Milledge, although I'm not sure he's really that type of impact player. They've been liked to the Nationals' relievers, but they won't trade Milledge within the division, and they definitely won't trade him for a couple of relievers. If Jose Contreras is traded, the Mets are a pretty likely destination, but I don't really see the Mets making any big moves. It would really be nice to find a platoon partner for Green and/or another outfielder to play, though...I really don't know who might fit that bill, but they really should get somebody.

Atlanta: This spring was the first time in my life the Braves entered a season without being the reigning NL East champions, and they're within striking distance to do it again. Not many people are taking notice, but Chipper Jones is hitting like crazy; he missed some games in the beginning of the year, but he's OPSing 1.019 for the year. Edgar Renteria is having a great year as well, possibly the best of any NL shortstop, but got left off the All-Star team so Freddy Sanchez could be on. Kelly Johnson is a converted outfielder, but his defense at second base has been decent, and his offensive production has certainly justified the move. Jeff Francoeur is still having plate discipline issues, though, and Brian McCann and especially Andrew Jones are having poor seasons by their standards (Jones is still below the Mendoza line). They're experimenting with Jarrond Saltalamacchia at first base, which I don't really get since he's a competent defensive catcher, but I'll write more on that later. Salty can hit, which is good, because their other first baseman (Scott Thorman) can't; Thorman has received over 200 at-bats despite posting just a .257 OBP.

Pitching-wise, John Smoltz is a deserving All-Star, and Tim Hudson's overall numbers are good, though he has been inconsistent. Chuck James doesn't have quite the potential of some of the other young pitchers in the league, but his 3.96 ERA is very solid. The weak link in the rotation has been Kyle Davies, who has an ERA over 6. The bullpen was a complete disaster last year, and they tried to rebuild it at the deadline, with some success; their middle relief seems fine, but I don't think any Braves fan will be safe as long as Bob Wickman and his 1.52 WHIP is still the closer.

So the Braves do need bullpen help; unfortunately, it's a seller's market on relievers (like every year). Their prime target seems to be Rangers reliever Akinori Otsuka; he's signed through 2009, but he's also in his late 30's. They're looking at first basemen, too; they've looked at the Nationals' "All-Star" first baseman Dimitri Young, and they've also talked with the White Sox about their starters. I definitely think John Schuerholz will end up with another reliever by the time August rolls around.

Philadelphia: Scoring runs has not been the problem for the Phillies; they've scored the most runs in the league. That's partly a function of their cozy ballpark, but it's also a function of their great offense. Ryan Howard is a star. Chase Utley is the best second baseman in the game, and it's not even close. Jimmy Rollins is one of the many great NL shortstops; he's slugging .511 this year, although he's misused as a leadoff hitter because of his low OBP. Aaron Rowand is having a career year. Pat Burrell may be hated, but he doesn't suck; his .371 OBP would help any team. Shane Victorino has been fine in right field, posting basically league-average numbers. Third base and catcher haven't been extremely productive positions for the Phillies, but they don't really need a whole lot more offensive production.

The other half of the game has been a problem for the Phillies, though. Again, some of this can be explained by the Phillies' small ballpark, but they've allowed the most runs in the NL (tied with the Reds, who also play in a bandbox). The Brett Myers fiasco was really strange - he was their #2 starter coming into the year, and he pitched well last year, but he had a couple poor starts to begin the season, so they moved him to the bullpen; he eventually took over the closer role, but got hurt a little while ago. Cole Hamels has been great; I think he deserves to be an All-Star - he has struck out more than a batter per inning, and has a very low WHIP for a starter (1.21). Jamie Moyer has been as effective as the Phillies could have hoped for, making every start and posting a 4.25 ERA. But that's pretty much where the list of effective Phillies starters stops, and to make matters worse, their bullpen isn't really any better. Closer Antonio Alfonseca is notable for having six fingers on each hand; unfortunately for the Phillies, his pitching is much more forgettable. And Jose Mesa is their set-up guy.

The Phillies are in an awkward position at the trade deadline; they have two teams ahead of them in the divisional race and four teams in front of them for the wild card, but they can't really give up on the season when they're above .500. Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds give them a roughly 10% chance of making the playoffs, but that's at least somewhat probable. They're looking at Akinori Otsuka also, as well as just about every other reliever on the market, but they need a starter even more. I wouldn't be surprised if a Steve Trachsel-type pitcher ends up in Philly.

Florida: This year's Marlins team is rather unremarkable. Miguel Cabrera will outgrow the third base position soon, but he's still one of the five best hitters in the NL. Hanley Ramirez was the All-Star team's biggest snub; he is every bit as good and as young as Jose Reyes. Dan Uggla is following a surprising rookie season with another good year; he's slugging .499, although his OBP is a paltry .319. Josh Willingham is playing a good left field also, OPSing above .800. Center field could use some upgrading; Alfredo Amezaga has an OPS of just .675. Catcher could use even more upgrading; Miguel Olivo's OBP is just .269.

The Marlins' pitching looked great last year, but it hasn't been nearly as good this year. Josh Johnson missed almost all of the first half with some nerve problems in his arm, and he's back on the DL with more elbow trouble. Sergio Mitre is the Marlins' only starter with an ERA below 4.50. Dontrelle Willis is doing nothing to dispel the notion that he is overrated, as his WHIP is above 1.50 and his K/9 is just a little over 6. It might be wise for the Marlins to trade him while they still control him and his value is still high. Scott Olsen should be a very good pitcher long-term, as he's a power-throwing lefty, but he's not doing great this year. Their bullpen is somewhat unremarkable, as they have a bunch of good relievers but no standouts.

The Marlins tried to trade for Jacque Jones, but it didn't work out, and I'm not sure what other trades they can make. Personally, I would try to trade Willis if I were the Marlins, because I don't think his value will ever be higher than it is now. The Rockies and Diamondbacks both might be good trade partners for a Willis deal, if it does happen; my gut feeling is that he goes nowhere, however. And don't even bother putting together deals for Miguel Cabrera; they're not trading him.

Washington: Some people were expecting the Nationals to challenge the Mets' all-time futility record of 120 losses before the season. That's not going to happen, at this point, which is good news for Nationals fans. The bad news? Your team's still going to lose 95 games, and you've got absolutely no hope at contending in the near future. The other four teams in the division have lots of good young talent; not only do the Nationals have nothing in the big leagues right now, they have pretty much nothing in the minors either. Dimitri Young has actually hit well, with a .906 OPS, and Christian Guzman somewhat randomly has a .850 OPS (although he's only played about half the games so far), but the next-best OPS on the team is Ryan Church's .755. RFK Stadium is a pitcher's park, but this offense just isn't good. And the pitching is worse - they haven't really gotten a solid rotation down, mostly because most of their pitchers suck. Chad Cordero and Jesus Colome have been good out of the bullpen, making them attractive to teams looking for relievers, but their dangerously heavy workloads may scare away most teams.

Last year, the Nationals failed to trade away Alfonso Soriano, and instead walked away with just a pair of draft picks when Alfonso Soriano signed with the Cubs. This year, they'll try to learn from their mistake, as they do have some relievers that people want. The Mets definitely have interest in Cordero, as do a lot of other teams. But will they pull the trigger?

The most underrated player in baseball...

2007-07-05T22:45:00.001-04:00

Okay, that title is a lie; there are probably a dozen or so players more underrated than the player I'm going to talk about. But I will still contend that Pat Burrell is very underappreciated. He is Philadelphia's version of A-Rod, albeit with less talent; he is the whipping boy for the franchise, all the fans hate him for some reason, and he's actually a good player.

What? Pat Burrell is a good player? How can that be? He's hitting just .207! He has "only" 10 homers and 34 RBI? How can you defend someone like that? Well, if you use numbers that more accurately measure a player's offensive ability, you'll find that his OBP is .371, and you'll find that RBI is a dumb statistic. Burrell's been hated and the fans have wanted him traded for years, but he's been a really good offensive player pretty much his entire career; fans just can't look past the low batting average numbers. Burrell's OPS+ this year is 101; 100 is league-average, so he's basically been an average hitter this year (by that metric). This has been a down year for him, too; his career OPS+ is 116, and he was at 124 and 125 in the last two years. He strikes out a lot, but does that really matter? Most of the time, it doesn't matter at all what kind of out you make; it's still an out, and those are bad. And Burrell has been good at not making those outs, as his OBP is .371. His slugging percentage is down this year, but most of that difference can be explained by his low BA (even for his standards), which is .207 right now.

Some critics like to say that Burrell's high OBP does not matter because they can't steal bases. This doesn't make sense; as long as he gets on base, it's possible for him to score, while if he does not get on base, he can't score, and he costs his team an out. For examples of people who think OBP is a bad stat for people with no speed, I'll refer you to Fire Joe Morgan's "clogging up the bases" category. The short answer is that these people are idiots. Getting on base = not making outs = helping your team score runs.

For the more nerdy fans, Burrell's EqA is currently .273, 14th among full-time left fielders in baseball. That says pretty much the same thing that the OPS+ statistic said; Burrell has been pretty much league-average this year. And he's been even better in the past. So, are the Phillies fans' expectations so high of Burrell that they expect him to be an All-Star caliber player, or are they just not looking at the whole pitcure? (Actually, this isn't just a rhetorical question; I do really want to know this. Why does Burrell get hated on so much? Is it as simple as his low BA and high K rate?)

All-Star Reaction

2007-07-04T14:34:00.000-04:00

All-Star rosters were released on Sunday...here's some belated reaction to the selections. Here are the links to the AL and NL rosters, and because the starters didn't really change in the last week of the voting, my plan for filling out the rosters still works as well.

The American League roster was very well-done, in my opinion. Orlando Cabrera has been named as the biggest snub, but I'm really not sure he should be there, given that there just aren't enough roster spots due to teams like Tampa Bay and Texas not having any real All-Stars. Michael Young is fine from Texas; I thought Mark Teixeira was going to be back from his injury soon, in which case he would have been a much better choice, but Young is still a good player, although he's not showing a whole lot of it this year. All the pitchers who should be on the team are there, although I would have personally gone with Mark Buehrle over Bobby Jenks from Chicago. The only reserve choice that I don't get is Manny Ramirez; he was voted in by the players more on reputation than on his performance this year. I would have rather seen Kevin Youkilis or Curtis Granderson (both of whom are more deserving than Gary Sheffield, by the way), but that's kind of splitting hairs.

MLB decided to go with all pitchers for their 32nd man ballots, which is kind of strange; the nominees are Hideki Okajima, Jeremy Bonderman, Pat Neshek, Kelvim Escobar, and Roy Halladay. Halladay is the most talented of the five, but is also having the worst year; Bonderman and Escobar are both okay, but certainly not great. I'm personally voting for Neshek, but there's not a whole lot of difference between him and Okajima. Okajima leads the voting right now, and he's going to win it - he gets the vote of both Red Sox Nation and the nation of Japan. (Although Neshek does have the blogger's vote...) If MLB had let some position players in on the voting, Granderson, Sheffield, Youkilis, and Orlando Cabrera would have all been good candidates.

The NL roster, to put it bluntly, is a disaster. Usually the difference between players on the roster and the snubs is small enough that it doesn't make any practical difference, but I believe the NL is actually much weaker than they could be. If they had the right players, I believe their offense could give the AL a good game, even though the AL's pitching is better, but with the roster that they actually have, I can't see them winning this game. I really can't. Here's a list of the bad selections by La Russa and the players:

Brian Fuentes is the obvious one. Did La Russa forget about Matt Holliday and think he still needed someone from the Rockies? He lost the closer job on Sunday, the day the rosters were announced. Now, La Russa probably had to make these decisions a few days before, when Fuentes was still somewhat solidly in the closer role, but he still doesn't deserve this. And there's really no way Jose Valverde belongs on the team, either. I know Tony La Russa loves his relievers, but this is overkill.

Aaron Rowand has no business being on this team either. Look, I know he's "scrappy" (read: white), but he's probably not one of the top ten outfielders in the NL. There's no way he should be on the team ahead of Eric Byrnes. There were other Phillies that had a much better resume - Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Here's Keith Law's take (insider-only):

The NL's shortstop crop right now is tremendous. Jose Reyes is a star and a deserving starter. J.J. Hardy is emerging as a star and has every reason to be on this team. Edgar Renteria is having his second straight superb year for Atlanta. Hanley Ramirez is having a monster year -- we'll come back to him in a moment -- after winning the Rookie of the Year award last year. But other than Reyes, there's probably not an NL shortstop with a better combination of current-year performance, track record and defensive prowess than Jimmy Rollins. The fact that only two shortstops are on the NL roster is ridiculous, and the exclusion of Rollins only makes it more so.

But the fact that Rollins was snubbed while Aaron Rowand was added makes it worse. Rowand has reached 500 at-bats just once in his career. He's a part-time player who just happens to be hitting 30 points over his career average and who gets on "SportsCenter" because he runs into walls. Players like Rowand do not belong on an All-Star Game roster unless it's to fill the requirement that each team get one representative -- and the Phillies already had Chase Utley on the team. He probably never will make another All-Star team because he's not an All-Star-caliber player.

And just to put it in some perspective, manager Tony La Russa chose the scrappy outfielder having an out-of-character fluke year while omitting the star shortstop having his typical year -- and then MLB added insult to injury by leaving that star shortstop off the fan ballot for the final spot.

Freddy Sanchez is another really strange selection. There were already four middle infielders on the team, and Sanchez is definitely not one of the top ten middle infielders in the NL. Ian Snell would have been a much better representative of the Pirates. If La Russa still wants middle infielders, take another shortstop - Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, and Edgar Renteria all have great cases. I personally would have taken one of these shortstops over Orlando Hudson, too, and let them play second.

Carlos Lee was voted in by the players despite the fact that he really doesn't deserve it. Hunter Pence is a better outfielder from the Astros, and Roy Oswalt is one of the four most talented pitchers in the NL. Lee's having a pretty good year, but not All-Star quality. There are some other strange pitching selections, mostly along the lines of too many relievers; I'm not really sure Takashi Saito belongs on the team, and I already mentioned Fuentes and Valverde. The result? Deserving starting pitchers such as Oswalt, Chris Young and John Maine get left off the team.

Here are the NL final vote candidates: Chris Young, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Tom Gorzelanny, and Carlos Zambrano. Those are some great pitchers, all left off so that Brian Fuentes can face one hitter in the seventh inning. Big Z is pitching really well of late, but he was so bad at the beginning of the season that I don't feel ashamed about not voting for him. Gorzelanny isn't even the most deserving pitcher on his own team; Ian Snell has slightly better numbers across the board. Of the other three, Webb and Oswalt are more talented, but I have to vote for Young's 2.41 ERA, even if he is pitching in PETCO park half the time. And how was John Maine not on this list? There are a bunch of great position players who could make this list as well, if MLB hadn't decided to go all pitchers; Rollins, Ramirez, Renteria, Howard, Byrnes, Adam Dunn, Aramis Ramirez, Todd Helton...Rollins is the only one of these players not currently in the top 20 in NL OPS.

I don't really know how it happened, but this NL roster is terrible. I'll look into this more closely as we hit the weekend, but right now I'm taking the AL, something like 9-2.

Clearing the Bases: Hargrove Out

2007-07-02T14:36:00.000-04:00

Clearing the Bases: going through some of the most notable links from the past week...

If you told me at the beginning of the season, if you told me that Mike Hargrove would not be the manager at the All-Star break, I would have had no trouble believing you. But I would have expected the Mariners to be 15 games below .500, and for Hargrove to be fired along with GM Bill Bavasi. But instead, the M's are 12 games above .500, and Hargrove is quitting, saying he's just burned out. Really strange timing on this; the M's are on an eight-game winning streak, and they're playing better than anybody expected. Rob Neyer had a good article on this yesterday (insider-only, so I'll give you an excerpt:)

Maybe this is the cynic in me, but I can't help but wonder whether there's something we haven't been told yet. I worry that Hargrove's been diagnosed with some serious illness. All we can do is hope that's not the case. Then there's the possibility that he wants to quit while he's ahead. Hargrove's past six teams -- four in Baltimore, two in Seattle -- finished in fourth place, most of them with records well below .500.

But Hargrove's 2007 Mariners are riding high. They're in second place with a 44-33 record. Can they maintain this pace, though? The Mariners have the fourth-best record in the American League, but only the eighth-best run differential. Maybe this particular Mariner knows when it's time to jump ship.

I do get what Neyer's saying - because the M's are playing so far above their head, they're likely to fall back in the next month or so; then, when some team wants to fill their manager job in the upcoming future (Baltimore?), they'll look at the candidates and say, "Hey, the Mariners were great under Hargrove, then they collapsed after he left...maybe he's the one for us!" I'm not saying that's what Hargrove is doing, because that seems really unlikely, but it's at least a possiblity.

Here's U.S.S Mariner's take on the situation...

Remembering Rod Beck.

Here are the All-Star game rosters, for the American League and the National League...

Um...Brian Fuentes? What the hell?

A Brewers prospect threw a perfect game in the minors...

A compelling case for the White Sox to keep Mark Buehrle, although apparently it's not going to happen...

A great article on former Dodgers GM and future GM somewhere else Paul DePodesta.

On Tuesday, we saw the best Joe Morgan chat ever...

Random Video of the Week: Heckling Stephen A. Smith at the NBA Draft. Seriously, watch this. You will not be disappointed.

Filling out the All-Star Rosters...

2007-07-01T14:57:00.000-04:00

I already went through who deserves to start the all-star game earlier in the week, but let's take things one step further and fill out the entire 32-team rosters for each league. Obviously, you have to take into account the rule that each team must have at least one representative in the All-Star game. Yes, this is a dumb and outdated rule (my opinion: it should be required that the host team has somebody on the roster, but that's it), but it does make things a little more interesting for people like me who try to create the roster.

American League:

MLB hasn't released yet who the starters will be; for some reason, they're waiting to announce the entire team on a special show today on TBS that will attract probably 13 viewers (although I'll probably be among them). So, according to the most recent results (from a couple days before voting ended), here's what the starting lineup would look like:

C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: David Ortiz
2B: Placido Polanco
3B: Alex Rodriguez
SS: Derek Jeter
OF: Vlad Guerrero
OF: Magglio Ordonez
OF: Ichiro Suzuki

Those could have changed by the end of the voting, though the only positions in which the voting was close were catcher and outfield. Anyways, that leaves 24 more spots to fill...

Step 1: Pick the best pitchers: Usually, teams will carry 11-12 pitchers on their ASG rosters. I'll leave a couple of those slots open, for now, but here are the pitchers who absolutely have to be on the all-star roster:

Dan Haren leads all of baseball with a 1.91 ERA; he's just been dominating. He's the starter for the AL. Johan Santana's record is only 9-6, but he's gotten no run support; his 2.76 ERA is third in the AL, and he's second in the league in strikeouts. You can't have an all-star team without Santana. (Here's a link to something I wrote on Santana yesterday.) Justin Verlander's 3.18 ERA is great, and his no-hitter was the pitching performance of the year so far. C.C. Sabathia leads the league in wins (12-2), and his 116:17 K/BB ratio is just insane. The Angels' John Lackey is often underrated, but he's got 10 wins and an ERA under three. And as far as relievers go...Seattle's J.J. Putz has a 0.95 ERA, a WHIP of 0.61, and is tied for the league lead with 23 saves. Francisco Rodriguez also has 23 saves; he's probably the best closer in all of baseball at this point. And the Twins' Pat Neshek is as dominating as a middle reliever can be; he has a 1.37 ERA and is holding opposing batters to a .124 batting average. That's eight pitchers; we'll fill out the rest later.

Step 2: Select all the deserving backups: Aside from the starters, who absolutely has to be on the roster? We don't have to fill out all the backup slots yet, but we have to take all the players we can't possibly leave off.

We need at least two catchers on the roster, probably three. Fortunately, there are two very deserving backups after Pudge: Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez. Both of them would be better choices to start than Pudge is (and Posada may have passed Pudge in the voting), but they both have OPSes above .900 and both absolutely have to be on the team. At first, I can't leave reigning MVP Justin Morneau and his 20 homers off the roster. Kevin Youkilis is having a career year as well; his .416 OBP gets him onto the team also. There aren't really any other second or third basemen having spectacular seasons, but Carlos Guillen has to be Jeter's backup at short; Guillen really should be the starter, but voters like Jeter's pinstripes more than they like Guillen's 100-point edge in slugging percentage. Curtis Granderson is having a breakout year, and Torii Hunter is playing great in his contract year; their .900 OPSes are certainly worthy of roster sports, and they both play center field. There are some other outfielders who could certainly make the team, but let's stop for now.

Step 3: Fulfill the "one player from every team" requirement: So far, we have 23 players on the roster, and still no representatives from the following teams: Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Kansas City, Texas.

Toronto: Roy Halladay would normally make the team, but he just hasn't been himself this year; I considered Aaron Hill for his versatiity, but in the end, you have to go with Alex Rios, who is having a career year (17 HR, .522 SLG).
Baltimore: Jeremy Guthrie is having a fantastic year, but he was in the bullpen for the first month of the season, and besides, we still have only one second baseman. Brian Roberts is the pick.
Tampa Bay: With apologies to James Shields, A-Rod is still the team's only third baseman, and I'm starting to run low on roster spots. I'm taking B.J. Upton and playing him at third for a couple innings; he played some third last year, although he was moved off the position because he sucked there defensively.
Chicago: Since nobody besides Jim Thome is hitting at all, we've pretty much got to take the best pitcher on this team. Surprisingly enough, that pitcher is none other than Mark Buehrle, who has a 3.33 ERA and a somewhat respectable 5.94 K/9 (not good, but at least okay). By the way,, Jon Garland somehow has a 3.36 ERA despite striking out less than four batters every nine innings...don't bet on that to continue.
Kansas City: For once, the Royals actually have somebody somewhat deserving of an All-Star spot - starter Gil Meche, who has posted a 3.28 ERA and has some nice strikeout numbers.
Texas: We certainly aren't getting any pitchers here...trade bait Mark Teixeira easily deserves this spot, as he's hitting really well (.959 OPS). By the way, John Kruk seriously mentioned on Baseball Tonight last week that Sammy Sosa deserves the Rangers' spot. Sosa's OBP is .309, and he doesn't currently play a defensive position; he's hurting the Rangers, and he would certainly hurt an All-Star team.

Step 4: Fill out any open positions, get 31 players on the roster: We've got 29 players and 10 pitchers, so we should select one more pitcher and one more position player. For the pitcher, I'm going with Jonathan Papelbon - he hasn't been spectacular, but he's been very good, and relievers tend to be good choices because all the pitchers are in relief roles anyways. And one more position player...there aren't really any major holes to fill, so I'm going with Grady Sizemore - he's posted a .401 OBP hitting leadoff for the Indians, he has 23 steals, and he's a good defensive center fielder. You could make the case for another infielder here, though.

Step 5: Select five nominees for the fans' vote: For whatever reason, MLB decided that the fans need to be involved more, so they added this vote for the 32nd player on each team. Here are my five nominees:

Manny Ramirez, OF - .286/.385/.468 (BA/OBP/SLG)
Gary Sheffield, DH - .290/.401/.530
Orlando Cabrera, SS - .342/.380/.463
Casey Kotchman, 1B - .307/.382/.511
Josh Beckett, P - 3.07 ERA, 11-1

Of those five nominees, I'd probably choose Sheffield, and I'm guessing he would win (every Tigers player has done really well in the voting so far, and Beckett and Manny would split the Red Sox Nation votes).

National League:

Here's the starters, from the most recent voting:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Chase Utley
3B: David Wright
SS: Jose Reyes
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Ken Griffey Jr.
OF: Alfonso Soriano

Some of these (SS, OF, 3B) were close, though, so there might be a couple different players when the voting is released in a couple hours.

Step 1: Pick the best pitchers: My starter is Jake Peavy; he gets the because of his strikeout numbers. I can certainly see the case for Brad Penny, though - basically the same ERA, except he doesn't play half his games in spacious PETCO Park. Chris Young's numbers are also PETCO-inflated, but his 2.14 ERA is impressive regardless. John Maine has been a very pleasant surprise for the Mets, posting a 2.74 ERA. Cole Hamels' ERA is a little high (3.87), but he's 9-4 and is second to Peavy in strikeouts. Francisco Cordero has been outstanding in the closer role for Milwaukee; he leads baseball with 27 saves. Trevor Hoffman has to be on the team; the all-time saves leader has added 23 to his total this year, as well as a 2.03 ERA. And I'm putting Billy Wagner on the team as well - he only has 16 saves, but he's given up just seven earned runs this year (1.73 ERA).

Step 2: Select all the deserving backups: First base is absolutely loaded in the NL; Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard both have to be on the team. There are plenty of other great players at the position, but let's wait and see how the roster shakes out. Miguel Cabrera should be starting at third; if he doesn't beat out Wright in the voting, we'll make room for his .979 OPS as a backup. Shortstop in the NL is even more loaded; J.J. Hardy, Edgar Renteria, and Hanley Ramirez all really should be on the team. That's a lot of shortstops, but there really aren't any other deserving second basemen besides Utley; we'll play one of these guys (Renteria?) at second. It's tough to leave Jimmy Rollins off the team, too; we'll see if we can fit him in anywhere. I don't care if you don't like the guy, Barry Bonds absolutely deserves to get on the team - he gets on base literally more than half the time he bats (.513 OBP). His 1.112 OPS is second-best in all of baseball. And the game's in San Francisco. He absolutely has to be there. Matt Holliday is also having a breakout year; he and Bonds are the two best hitters in the league, but neither will be starting. And I'm not leaving Adam Dunn off the team, either; I know he hardly ever makes contact, but he walks enough, and when he does make contact, it usually goes a long way (23 HR so far).

Step 3: Fulfill the "one player from every team" requirement: Three teams with no representatives yet: Washington (duh), Pittsburgh (duh), Houston, Arizona

Washington: God, this team is awful. I guess you have to go with Dimitri Young, who has an un-Dimitri-Young-like .893 OPS, as he's pretty much the only good player on the Nationals.
Pittsburgh: Jason Bay's a good player, but he's not performing very well this year, and besides, there's some good pitching on this team. I'm going with Ian Snell, who has a 2.90 ERA and is striking out a bunch of hitters. Tom Gorzelanny is pitching really well, too, although his numbers are slightly worse than Snell's in pretty much every category.
Houston: I'd like to put Hunter Pence on the team, but he just hasn't quite had enough at-bats, and besides, we still need some more pitching. You can never go wrong with Roy Oswalt, who is having a solid year this year (7-5, 3.42). Carlos Lee's putting up good numbers as well.

Step 4: Fill out any open positions, get 31 players on the roster: Three empty roster spots at this point. We need another catcher, and unfortunately, there really aren't any other catchers who are even close to being All-Star worthy. I'll go with Brian McCann because he's more talented than he's shown this year, but McCann, Johnny Estrada, and Bengie Molina all have pretty much the same stats. We need another pitcher - I'll take John Smoltz and his 2.98 ERA. And I'd really love to get Rollins on the roster, but there aren't any center fielders on here besides Beltran. Do you really want to see an outfield with Holliday in center, Dunn in right, and Bonds in left if the game's close in the ninth? Me neither. So I have to take Eric Byrnes, who is putting together career-high numbers in a contract year - .878 OPS, 13 HR, 15 steals - and he's a plus defensively in center.

Step 5: Select five nominees for the fans' vote: Here are my five:

Jimmy Rollins, SS - .283/.329/.507
Hunter Pence, OF - .330/.358/.562
Derrek Lee, 1B - .340/.415/.502
Matt Cain, P - 2-9, 3.38 ERA
Derek Lowe, P - 8-7, 3.03 ERA

My vote would easily be Rollins, but the voting would probably be pretty close - Rollins, Pence, and Lee could all muster some support, the Dodgers have backed a lot of their players (Lowe), and Cain would be in his home park if he got voted in.

Santana vs Verlander

2007-06-30T22:35:00.000-04:00

Great pitching matchup in Detroit yesterday: Johan Santana vs. Justin Verlander. The Twins won fairly easily, 11-1, as Verlander had one of his worst outings of the season (although he was really good for a few innings) and Santana pitched like he always does. Santana's record is a respectable 9-6, but the Twins have scored three runs or less for him in 10 of his 17 starts so far, which is why his win total isn't higher. Santana's the best pitcher in the game today; here's a recap of some random things I noticed about him in this start:

Santana threw a lot of pitches in the first inning, but that wasn't really his fault; he faced five hitters and threw only seven balls. His high pitch total (25) was more due to the fact that guys like Polanco and Guillen were fouling off lots of pitches. Santana did give up two singles to right field; Polanco's was on a fastball up in the zone, and Sheffield's was just a great piece of hitting on a changeup away.

Then, in the second inning, Santana was apparently trying to keep his pitch count down and just throw strikes, as every pitch that inning was a fastball. It worked, too; he sent Pudge, Craig Monroe, and Marcus Thames down in order on only eight pitches. He was lucky to be facing poor hitters, though; both Monroe and Thames saw good pitches up in the zone, but each managed no more than a flyout. Santana resumed mixing in his off-speed after that, although he all but abandoned his slider after the fourth.

Santana's changeup is arguably the best pitch in all of baseball, but he didn't seem to be using it as often as usual. He was throwing more fastballs, but he was still effective. His fastball must have a lot of movement, because the Tigers were fouling a lot of his pitches straight back (meaning they were timing it okay, but couldn't make clean contact). He didn't really have very good command of his slider when he was throwing it, putting it in the strike zone only three of nine times.

Santana's fastball was in the 93-94 range all day, though I've been skeptical of Comerica Park velocity readings ever since last postseason, when all the Tigers pitchers mysteriously added three mph to their fastball. I seem to remember him being more in the 91-92 range when I saw him at the Metrodome last summer. Regardless, his fastball-change combo is very effective, as he takes a good 10 mph off his change (consistantly at 83).

The thing I would be worried about is that Santana was leaving way too many fastballs up in the zone; his change and slider were mostly down, but his fastball was often above the belt. Polanco put one of his fastballs over the left-field fence, and Guillen and Thames each hit warning-track flyballs that might have been homers in another ballpark. I'm guessing this has been fairly common for Santana this season, as his HR rate is at a career high.

As for Verlander...he was great in the second through fourth innings, but he gave up two runs in the first and four in the fifth. In both cases, control was the issue. Verlander walked Jason Bartlett and Joe Mauer in the first to load the bases; Bartlett and Luis Castillo both scored that inning. In the fifth, Verlander walked Jason Tyner to lead off the inning, and then walked Castillo and Bartlett to load the bases again, setting the state for a rare Joe Mauer grand slam. Control problems often are among the first signs of pitcher fatigue. Verlander was pulled after five innings, but he still threw 99 pitches because he was so ineffective. I still believe that Verlander will end up on the DL or with a very bad stretch at some point this season, and this start showed why.

A couple other random thoughts:

Boy, Placido Polanco sure is a battler, isn't he? He saw 16 pitches in three at-bats against Santana, ending up with two hits.

Santana sure knows who to pitch to...Sheffield only saw one pitch up in the zone, while Marcus Thames and Nefi Perez got a lot of fastballs at the letters.

Curtis Granderson is one of baseball's better young players, and he probably deserves to be in the All-Star game this year. But one thing he still needs to learn is plate discipline. Granderson saw 16 pitches, swung at 10 of them, and only put one into play (a grounder to first). Granderson saw a lot more off-speed than anybody else, due to his free-swinging nature; there are players who can succeed with this attitude (Vlad, Soriano), but it's pretty rare.

One of the Detroit announcers (don't know which one) said this about Nefi Perez: "When playing everyday, Perez is a very good bunter." Wow! Jim Leyland must be a fool for not playing him due to his bunting skills! Why wouldn't Perez play everyday, so he can become an even better bunter? Oh, right, his .297 career OBP. And his career OPS+ of 63 (100 is league-average). And the fact that bunting is pretty much his only offensive skill, and it's a pretty useless one at that.

Around the Horn: AL West

2007-06-29T18:47:00.000-04:00

Around the Horn goes through all the teams in a certain division, talking about what they've done right, what they've done wrong, and what they need to do to get better. Usually I'll get to about two divisions a week. Today: the AL West.

~~Anaheim~~ LA Angels: The Angels aren't the best team in the AL, but they'll probably end up with the best record because they get to play so many games against the AL West, which is a much weaker division top-to-bottom than the East or the Central. If this does happen, it will kind of be a shame, because it will mean the two best teams in the AL (and in all of baseball), in my opinion, will meet in the division series (those two teams being Cleveland and Boston). But, regardless, the Angels are still a really good team, and they are certainly capable of winning 11 games in October if fortune spins their way. The Angels' 49-30 record is the best in baseball, thanks mostly to their stellar play at home (an AL-leading 29-13). Vladimir Guerrero is playing as well as usual, OPSing .989 and driving in 69 runs to date. Casey Kotchman has also played extremely well at first base, also with an OPS above .900, and rookie Reggie Willits has an OBP of .430. Signing Gary Matthews, JR. for 5/50 in the offseason was a terrible idea, but he's actually been pretty good so far. Howie Kendrick and Chone Figgins have both missed time this year due to injury, and some of their rookies (I'm looking at you, Eric Aybar) haven't played up to their potential. Kevilm Escobar and John Lackey both have ERAs under 3, and Jered Weaver is following up last year's stellar rookie season with another good year. Ervin Santana's numbers aren't great, but his splits are really interesting - he's 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA at home, but 1-6 with a 7.54 ERA on the road, and what's more, he's had the same splits his entire life. And the Angels have the best bullpen in all of baseball, between Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, and a number of other solid relievers.

There really aren't many fixes that the Angels need; their rotation is pretty solid, and they are one of the two or three teams that doesn't need bullpen help. Their main trading chip at this point is Shea Hillenbrand, who was designated for assignment today. Obviously, they'll get very little in return for him, but the Yankees are interested in the rather mediocre first baseman. The Angels have apparently had discussions about Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn, for some reason, even though they don't really need a first baseman. I don't really see a whole lot of improvements they can make in their lineup, though if they can pick up a DH cheap they might look into that.

Seattle: Wait a minute - Seattle? What the hell are they doing here? Shouldn't they be at the bottom of this list? The Mariners are a very surprising 42-33 this year, although they're still 5 games back of the Angels and a couple games out of the wild card. But don't let their record fool you - their run differential is that of a .500 team, so they're lucky to be where they are. In addition, most of their players are playing better than they should, so they're not likely to stay at anything close to this pace. Their hitters have been fairly solid up and down the lineup, which is surprising because they don't really have that many good hitters. They view themselves as contenders, and I guess when you're 9 games above .500, you've got to take a shot at the playoffs, but I wouldn't be too optimistic if I were a Mariner fan. Felix Hernandez has been very up-and-down, and Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista have been good starters, but they could certainly use another pitcher or two. Jeff Weaver has pitched like...well, Jeff Weaver, and his ERA is an ugly 7.71. J.J. Putz has been absolutely dominant as the M's closer, and the rest of their bullpen has been surprisingly solid.

The Mariners could certainly use some help in their rotation, and possibly their lineup, but they don't really have anybody that other teams covet. They might try to trade away Jose Guillen, as they have a solid replacement waiting in the wings in Adam Jones, but I'm not sure they could get anything for him. It would make sense to try to trade one of their overachieving relievers in a market that is starved for pitching, but I don't know who exactly would be interested in them, either. They've looked into Mark Buehrle, but I can't imagine they'd be able to come up with an enticing package of prospects for him.

Oakland: The A's have a better run differential than the Mariners, but are just two games above .500 as of today. They definately still have a shot at the playoffs, but they've got a lot of teams to catch if they are to get into the postseason. They've been hit hard by injuries; Rich Harden has ace stuff, but can't stay healthy. But the biggest problem for the A's is an anemic offense. Nick Swisher's .858 OPS has been fine, and Dan Johnson is starting to hit pretty well, as we expected, but the rest of their hitters are just mediocre. Bobby Crosby has a .284 OBP, and Jason Kendall is officially the worst hitter with a starting job in the major leagues - his .513 OPS (.259 SLG!!!) can attest to that. The other half of the game has not been a problem for Oakland - they've allowed the second-fewest runs in the AL (one more than Boston). In a just world, Dan Haren would be your All-Star game starter (we should know on Sunday whether or not that actually happens), with a 1.91 ERA and a WHIP under 1. All of their other regular starting pitchers have ERAs under 4. Their bullpen hasn't been spectacular, but it's been solid. Without any offense, though, they'll probably remain around .500.

The A's just recently cut outfielder Milton Bradley, for reasons not fully explained, and they dealt him to the Padres for reliever Andrew Brown, who should help them some, although they don't really need more pitching. MLB Trade Rumors has also speculated that they might trade Joe Kennedy, who is a free agent after this year, but that's probably unlikely. I don't see Billy Beane making any major moves this year; the A's will probably contend next year if they can pick up a little bit of offense thru free agency, and they don't really have anybody that other teams really covet.

Texas: Can Sammy Sosa just go away now? He's gotten his OBP up to .311 now, but that still isn't really helping the Rangers much. He's still contributing some through his .475 slugging percentage, but the Rangers aren't winning now or anytime in the near future; they need to start giving at-bats to their younger players. (The same can be said for the state's other team; Craig Biggio's been even worse than Sosa this year, and the Astros had some hope of contending at some point this season, though that's all but faded.) Mark Teixeira has been the lone bright spot for Texas, giving them a .959 OPS; Ian Kinsler's given them decent production from second base, but Michael Young isn't having nearly the year he was projected to, and they really haven't gotten a whole lot of offense from anywhere else. The bigger problem is their pitching; they've given up the second-most runs in all of baseball (only Tampa Bay's been worse), and they don't really have anybody on their team who has been underachieving - their pitchers just aren't any good. One would like to think that Brandon McCarthy (acquired from the White Sox this winter) at least has potential, but his ERA is 5.90 so far, and that's the lowest of any Rangers starter. Their bullpen's been okay, but not all that great.

Who do the Rangers move? Anybody that someone else wants. Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka have been pretty good coming out of the bullpen, and a number of teams (especially the Indians, who have some history of trading with Texas) have interest in both pitchers. Mark Teixeira is the best hitter on the market, but a deal for a hitter of his ability midseason seems somewhat unlikely (see Alfonso Soriano last year); they'll probably have more luck shopping him during the offseason. The Dodgers have interest in Teix, and they have the prospects to get a deal done, but they won't want to give up most of their young players.

Mark Buehrle: Rumors Flying...

2007-06-27T22:24:00.000-04:00

The news on Mark Buehrle is all over the place today...I don't even know where to begin.

First off, Boston being the frontrunner for Buehrle was never actually the case; apparently, it was planted by the White Sox front office. I do believe the Red Sox looked into trading for him, at least when Schilling hit the DL, but there was no way a deal between the two teams was ever actually getting made.

This morning, MLB Trade Rumors reported that Buehrle was close to signing a four-year, $50 million deal. Personally, I think that would actually be a good signing by the ChiSox; it's true that Buehrle isn't an ace or even a #2 starter, but in this market, experienced #3 starters make eight figures a year. Buehrle probably won't succeed late into his career, as his K rate is already really low, but keeping the contract relatively short helps that. It'll be paying a little more than what you'll actually get, but that's what you have to do. Apparently PECOTA isn't as optimistic about this deal from the team's point of view, though...

But this evening, some more confusion was created; MLBTR again wrote that the two parties were nowhere near as close to agreeing on an extension as some thought. 4/50 did seem kind of cheap, given the market we're in; Buehrle could probably get something in the 5/70 range this winter. We'll wait and see if some more information comes out, but right now there really isn't any definitive info to be had.

All-Star Voting: National League

2007-06-26T20:14:00.000-04:00

Only three days left until the All-Star voting closes...you can still vote on MLB.com. But don't do that just yet - take a minute to read through the following analysis of who you should vote for. I already covered the AL in an earlier post; here's the NL:

Catcher: This one's rather easy. Russell Martin's OPS is almost 100 points higher than anyone else's, and his is just .822. He leads all NL catchers in just about every offensive category (especially steals, where he has about as many as everybody else combined), and he's at least decent defensively. Brian McCann is having kind of a down year, hitting just .256, and there just aren't any other great catchers in the league.

How the voters are doing: Martin is leading the voting, but Paul Lo Duca is within striking distance. Lo Duca, by the way, has a .680 OPS - that's even worse than Brad Ausmus. He has 3 homers and 20 RBI in almost 250 at-bats. The only way he should be a part of the All-Star game is maybe as a catcher in the HR derby.

Who I'm voting for: Russel Martin.

Acceptable to vote for: Nobody else. There's just no argument to vote for anybody else here.

First Base: Prince Fielder's 1.003 OPS is third-best in the NL, and tops among first basemen. He's got 27 HR - 11 more than anybody else at the position - and his 62 RBI lead that category by an equally comfortable margin. This is a loaded position, though; six players have an OPS at or above .900. Derrek Lee is quietly putting up great numbers, last year's MVP candidates Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols are stellar again, and Todd Helton and Dimitri Young are doing very well also. Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez seems to be in the middle of a breakout season, too; he's not getting on base quite as much as you'd like, but he's slugging .512 and has 51 RBI.

How the voters are doing: Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Derrek Lee are #1, 2, and 4 respectively - all are solid choices. Carlos Delgado (batting just .225) at #5 is not such a good choice. And Nomar at #3 may be the worst choice at any position in either league, given the depth of this position. He's slugging just .332, and his .648 OPS is last - that's right, last - among all starting first basemen (in either league). The Dodgers are planning to move him to third to make room for James Loney, which is a great move, and one that should have been made three months ago (if not last year).

Who I'm voting for: Prince Fielder.

Acceptable to vote for: You can't really go wrong voting for D-Lee or Howard, and you can never go wrong voting for Pujols. After that, it gets harder to justify voting for anybody else.

Second Base: Just as easy as catcher was. Orlando Hudson's having a good year, but Chase Utley is at another level. Utley's .320 BA, .399 OBP and .553 SLG all lead the position, as well as his 58 RBI. Dan Uggla and Kelley Johnson are all playing well, too, but you've gotta go with Utley.

How the voters are doing: Utley leads the way, with 1.3 million votes. Jeff Kent is in second place; he's doing pretty well, but nowhere near Utley. Craig Biggio (.279 OBP - just get to 3,000 hits already!) is third, somehow.

Who I'm voting for: Utley.

Acceptable to vote for: Nobody else. In an alternate universe, where Rickie Weeks is healthy and hitting well, maybe he at least challenges Utley, but right now there's nobody close.

Third Base: A really tight race between Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones. Jones has a slight edge in OPS (1.014 to .998), but Cabrera's done it over 75 more at-bats, so his counting stats are much higher. Milwaukee rookie Ryan Braun has done really well since his callup, but he hasn't played nearly as much as the first two guys. Aramis Ramirez and David Wright are both having pretty good years, but there just isn't really a case to be made for either of them over Cabrera or Chipper. (I honestly haven't looked at the totals yet, but I guarantee you that Wright's leading the voting, though.)

How the voters are doing: Hey, I was right! Not surprisingly, Wright leads the voting, with about 300,000 more votes than Cabrera. Chipper is third.

Who I'm voting for: Miguel Cabrera. He's hit extremely well over more at-bats than Chipper, which gives him the edge in my opinion.

Acceptable to vote for: I can't really argue much with Chipper, either. I guess one could make a case for Ramirez and Wright, but it would be hard to convince me.

Shortstop: Talk about a loaded position. Edgar Renteria, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, and Jose Reyes are all great hitters at the toughest defensive position (plus Rafael Furcal, who's having a down year). And Troy Tulowitzki and Stephen Drew will probably jump into that group within the next year or two, if they continue to develop well. Christian Guzman is having a good year for the Nationals, though there's no way you can vote for him at a position this loaded. Hardy was easily the right choice through the first month and a half, but he's fallen off some since then; his OBP is a rather average .340, and his batting average isn't helping his cause (.285). Rollins is actually slugging exceptionally well this year (.514), but he also isn't getting on base much. It gets really hard to separate Renteria, Ramirez, and Reyes; Renteria's rate numbers are slightly better, but we're talking about very, very small differences here. Reyes has the most speed, followed by Renteria, and I think Reyes is the best fielder as well.

How the voters are doing: Reyes leads the voting, of course, although Hardy is pretty close behind him. Furcal is third, despite having a down year (lots of Dodgers seem to be doing well in the voting), and Rollins is fourth. Fifth? Oh my god, don't make me say it...it's none other than David Eckstein. That's right - 571,000 people think that David Eckstein is the most qualified shortstop to start the All-Star game. I can't even think of anything to say here. That's more votes than Ramirez or Renteria. Let's just move on.

Who I'm voting for: Reyes, just barely ahead of Ramirez and Renteria.

Acceptable to vote for: Ramirez and Renteria definitely, and Rollins and Hardy are also fine choices.

Outfield: Outfield in the NL is kinda tough. Matt Holliday has to be in - his .993 OPS is impressive anywhere, even at Coors. He's really underrated, but he is probably the best corner outfielder in the NL right now. Barry Bonds has 75 walks and a .498 OBP - he gets on base literally half the time he comes to bat. I don't care if he's likeable or not, that's extremely valuable. Picking a third OF is tricky. Ken Griffey Jr. actually has a .964 OPS, which surprised me; the Great American Ballpark is a hitter's park, but that's still good. Hunter Pence has OPSed .984 this year, but he was called up during the season, so he doesn't have as many plate appearances as the others. Alfonso Soriano started off really cold, but he's heated up lately. Adam Dunn is having a really good year amidst the trade rumors. Eric Byrnes is having a really good year; he's not an ASG candidate but I felt like pointing that out.

How the voters are doing: Beltran, Griffey, and Soriano are the starters as of today; Beltran's OPS is below .800, but the other two are fine choices. Bonds is fourth, but he's within 120,000 votes of Soriano. Andrew Jones is fifth despite having an absolutely atrocious year (.197 BA), and Holliday is sixth.

Who I'm voting for: Holliday definitely, Bonds definitely, and...crap, this is hard. I'll go with Griffey.

Acceptable to vote for: Hunter Pence, Dunn, Soriano, and probably a few others.

And, just for the hell of it, here are my ASG starting pitchers: Dan Haren in the AL, Jake Peavy in the NL. Now go vote!

All-Star Voting: American League

2007-06-26T17:55:00.000-04:00

Just three days left until the All-Star voting closes...you can still vote on MLB.com. But don't do that just yet - take a minute to read through the following analysis of who you should vote for...(just the AL in this post)

Catcher: One of the easiest choices on the ballot...you pretty much have to go with Jorge Posada. He's second in OBP, to Joe Mauer, but he's first in BA, SLG, and OPS. And Mauer was hurt for pretty much the whole month of May. Victor Martinez does have a huge edge in homers and RBI, but Posada's still slugging better and RBI is a pretty meaningless statistic. Plus, Martinez is a terrible defensive catcher, and Posada is probably about average. Here's something kind of interesting - KC catcher John Buck has 13 homers, but only 26 RBI - obviously a function of the KC lineup. (He's actually second among catchers in HR despite having almost 100 less at-bats than V-Mart and the other top candidates.) Posada has won in the past just because he's a Yankee (like last year, when he somehow beat out the infinitely more deserving Joe Mauer), but this year he actually does deserve it.

How the voters are doing: For once, they actually haven't elected the Yankee...and they've gotten it wrong in doing so. Pudge Rodriguez holds more than a 200,000 vote edge on Posada, with both Varitek and Mauer close behind Jorge. Pudge isn't having a terrible year, but there isn't a single meaningful or even semi-meaningful category in which he leads Posada. Martinez is fifth, way behind the top four.

Who I'm voting for: Jorge Posada.

Acceptable to vote for: Victor Martinez, I guess - his offensive numbers are just about as good as Posada's. I can't really see voting for anybody else, given that Mauer got injured.

First Base: This one gets sort of tricky, because the game's in an NL park, so DHs like David Ortiz and Travis Hafner are on the ballot as first basemen. Carlos Pena's 1.026 OPS is very enticing, but he hasn't had as many plate appearances as some of the other guys, and besides, do you really want Carlos Pena starting in the All-Star game? Casey Kotchman's quietly putting up a great year, as he's third in OPS among true first baseman. Mark Teixeira was doing well, but he's hurt now. For a while, it looked like Kevin Youkilis was the right choice, but he's fallen off over the past couple weeks, and now has "only" a .920 OPS. That's good, because he's just a write-in candidate now that Ortiz is on the ballot, so it's not like there was any chance of him starting anyways. I'm not really sure I see any standouts here...Justin Morneau was having a pretty good year; he got hurt last Friday in a collision at home plate but it looks like he'll be back pretty soon. David Ortiz probably has the best numbers, including a 1.016 OPS, but you could really go with a lot of people here. Travis Hafner is having a surprisingly average year, OPSing just .838.

How the voters are doing: Pretty good. Ortiz leads, by a pretty large margin. Morneau is second, and he's done pretty well also. The Tigers must be pushing their guys pretty hard, because there's no way in hell Sean Casey belongs anywhere near the #3 spot - he's hitting just .289 with one homer, and his .730 OPS is 12th among starting first basemen. Typical Yankee bias shows up with Giambi in the top four despite not really doing all that well.

Who I'm voting for: David Ortiz. Plus, you get the comedy of him trying to play first base for the first three innings.

Acceptable to vote for: A long list here...Youkilis, Pena, Teixeira, Morneau, and Kotchman are all solid choices.

Second Base: This one's tough. There's nobody on this list I really want starting for me if I'm Jim Leyland. B.J. Upton has a huge lead in OPS, with an 80 point edge over anybody else at the position, but he's missed most of June with an injury. Plus, he's been pretty lucky to get the stats he has; he has struck out a ton, and he doesn't have enough power and doesn't walk enough to balance that out. He'll probably start a couple all-star games in the future if he stays at second base, as this is his first full season in the big leagues, but I have a hard time voting for him this year. The problem is that there isn't really another deserving candidate. Nobody at the position has good counting stats - Ian Kinsler leads the group with 14 homers, and he's the only one in double digits. Brian Roberts is second in OPS, and he's swiped 24 bases, which is an overrated statistic but it's still kind of notable. Dustin Pedroia's having a good year (3rd in OPS).

How the voters are doing: It's hard to do really poorly at this positino, because you can make a case for just about everybody. Placido Polanco leads by a fairly comfortable margin, which is a combination of the pro-Tigers and pro-batting average biases that appear in the voting. Polanco leads all 2Bs in batting average (.329), but that's pretty much his only skill. Robbie Cano is second (of course) despite having a pretty poor year. Pedroia's third and Upton is fifth, sandwiching the random Luis Castillo (.336 SLG, 12 RBI).

Who I'm voting for: I'm leaning towards Brian Roberts...he's probably got the best overall numbers.

Acceptable to vote for: Pretty much anybody, frankly. Except Luis Castillo. Upton, Pedroia, Kinsler, Polanco, and Aaron Hill are all reasonable candidates.

Third Base: The easiest vote on the ballot...it's gotta be Nick Punto, of course. Seriously, if you don't vote for A-Rod and his league-leading 1.140 OPS, you're crazy. Troy Glaus and Mike Lowell have been pretty good, also, but there's no rationale for not voting A-Rod.

How the voters are doing: A-Rod leads all AL vote-getters with over 2.5 million votes, and deservingly so. Lowell is second, Tigers 3B Brandon Inge is third.

Who I'm voting for: A-Rod. He's slugging .707!

Acceptable to vote for: Sorry, A-Rod is the only answer. Well, maybe Nick Punto.

Shortstop: With apologies to Jhonny Peralta and Brendan Harris, this is a two-man race. Carlos Guillen and Derek Jeter each are having good years, with OPSes over .900. Jeter has a slight edge in batting average, but Guillen has almost a 100 point edge in slugging percentage. AL shortstop used to be a loaded position, but A-Rod's move to third combined with Tejada's relatively poor year mean that there isn't a whole lot left.

How the voters are doing: Jeter #1, Guillen #2, Jeter has a big edge. But I absolutely love the fact that Julio Lugo is fifth. Over 500,000 people voted for a guy whose batting average is .191! His OPS is .541 (third-worst of any AL regular)! You don't think there's anything wrong with the voting?

Who I'm voting for: I'm going with Guillen. He's a better defender, too.

Acceptable to vote for: Jeter. And absolutely not Julio Lugo.

Outfield: Let's see...Magglio Ordonez has to be on anyone's ballot. His 1.096 OPS is a hundred points better than any other outfielder's, and is second in the league to A-Rod. He leads all OFs in all the rate stats (BA, OBP, SLG) and is second in RBI. Vladimir Guerrero is second in OPS (.989), with a pretty significant edge over anybody else. Vlad is also third in HRs and leds all OFs in RBI. Torii Hunter is quietly having a monster year - .306/.353/.557, with 15 HRs and 11 steals - in the last year of his contract; someone (probably Texas) is going to give him a lot of money this winter. Manny started off slowly, but he's gotten back to his usual self of late. Ichiro's still doing what he does best, and Alex Rios has 17 homers, most among OFS. Gary Sheffield is listed as an OF, although he's been primarily DHing this year; his .922 OPS deserves consideration. Curtis Granderson is slugging really well (also .557), although that 24:71 K/BB percentage is awfully ugly. Here's something interesting, though: Granderson has 14 triples so far this year. That puts him on pace for about 30 for the season, if he were to keep it up. Well, 30 triples would place him fourth on the all-time single-season list (the record is 36). And almost everybody on the list playhed in the dead-ball era or shortly thereafter, when triples were much more common. The leader post-WWII is Dale Mitchell (who?), with 23 triples in 1949. Lance Johnson's 21 in '96 are the most in the past 50 years.

How the voters are doing: Vlad #1, Magglio #2, Ichiro #3, with Manny just a handful of votes behind Ichiro and Hunter also in the running. Gary Sheffield (of course, another Tiger) is sixth.

Who I'm voting for: Magglio, Vlad, and Hunter. I dock Sheffield a few points for not really playing outfield.

Acceptable to vote for: Ichiro, Sheffield, Granderson, Manny, Rios, and Grady Sizemore are all reasonable selections. Lots of good outfielders in the AL.

That's all for the AL...I'll be back with the NL pretty soon.

Random stuff...

2007-06-25T14:59:00.000-04:00

I didn't feel like writing anything over the weekend, so here are some random thoughts from the past couple days...

This is going all the way back to Thursday, but Roger Clemens had his worst start of his (short) season to this point in Colorado, giving up four runs in 4 1/3 innings. He struck out six and only walked one, but the two homers he allowed were the problem. I wouldn't be worried about this; I still think he ends up going something like 11-6 with an ERA in the low fours.

What I was more interested in was his splits; I noticed last time that he did poorly against lefties and when hitters put the first pitch into play. Well, hitters seemed to be more aggressive against Clemens this time, putting the first pitch in play three times in just over four innings, but it didn't help them a whole lot; they went just 1-for-3, with the lone hit being a Willy Tavares bunt single. (By the way, fast hitters have been taking advantage of Clemens' 44-year-old legs by bunting a lot off him; he's gonna have to get used to it, because it's not going to stop.) The lefties in the lineup - Kaz Matsui, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe - went a combined 2-for-6 with a walk; the righties were 5-for-14 with both homers, and that includes two at-bats by pitcher Rodrigo Lopez. Colorado's righties tend to be more dangerous than their lefties, however, as Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday are two of the best hitters in the league, and rookie Troy Tulowitzki is hitting very well.

In other follow-up news...Justin Verlander threw again Saturday, and had another really good outing - seven innings, only one earned run, earning him his ninth win of the season. That run came via a homer, which isn't great news; Verlander has been giving up an increasing number of home runs as the season has brogressed. His 11:2 K-BB ratio, however, is excellent news. He was under 100 pitches in his last outing, but was back up to 110 this weekend, which probably isn't good for the Tigers. The one thing I noticed after his no-hitter was that his first-pitch strike percentage had been decreasing throughout the season, causing me to wonder if he was hurt and to predict that he would either get hurt or lose his effectiveness, although he made me look dumb by throwing 17 of 28 first-pitch strikes in his next outing. On Saturday? 15 of 27. He wasn't very effective with his pitches, throwing more than four pitches per hitter, which still isn't a good sign; but it does seem that his first-pitch strike woes were an aberration and not a sign of anything important.

One more pitcher to follow up on: Yovani Gallardo. I wrote about his debut last week, and I was pretty impressed. Well, he actually pitched better yesterday, thrwoing seven innings of one-run ball, although he didn't get a win out of it. Gallardo had eight strikeouts to just two walks and five hits, and kept his pitch count under 100. I wasn't watching the whole game, and I can't find a comprehensive recap online, but from the highlights it seems that Gallardo was using his fastball and slider more instead of relying too heavily on his outstanding curve. His fastball was hitting 93, too, and it would be great if he could eventually get that up into the 95-96 range.

As the calendar turns towards July, trade talk obviously begins to heat up; the White Sox remain the most powerful team on the market. There are some new rumors out that, in addition to Mark Buerhle, Chicago might move some starters who are not free agents at the end of the year, including possibly Jose Contreras and Jon Garland. The Mets are very interested in Contreras, and if the White Sox actually can get Lastings Milledge in return for Contreras or a package centered around him, I think they should definitely do it; Contreras is 35 and not getting any younger, and his ERA+ has gone from 123 in 2005 to just 98 this year (an ERA+ of 100 is league-average).

Meanwhile, the Mets had been the favorite for Buerhle for a while, but on Thursday Jayson Stark said the Braves were the favorite. Then, over the weekend, it became the Red Sox. I wouldn't say it's likely that any team gets him at this point; there are plenty of interested teams, and it's going to take a while for things to sort themselves out. I will say that at this point it doesn't seem likely that he goes to the Mets; the Red Sox and Braves both have more to offer in the way of second-tier prospects, and the Mets have made it clear they aren't including Lastings Milledge in a deal for a three-month rental. The Red Sox don't really make sense as a destination, as they will have five good starters when Jon Lester comes back, but it's possible that Curt Schilling's injury is more serious than people initially thought.

Nobody really seems to know where the top hitters - Adam Dunn, Jermaine Dye, and Mark Teixeira - are going to end up. People around baseball seem to think it's very likely that Dunn gets traded, although I personally don't think he'll leave Cincinatti. Teixeira's been rumored to the Angels, though he doesn't help that lineup all that much, and Bill Stoneman is a relatively conservative GM. The Yankees have had interest, but they aren't going to give up what it takes to get him. The Dodgers seem to be the most likely trade partner at this time, as they have plenty of good young players, but I think Teixeira stays in Texas. He's not a free agent until after the 2008 season, so they'll probably have more success trying to deal him this winter. Dye seems to be the most likely hitter to be dealt, and the Padres seem to want him pretty badly, but teams aren't going to give up too much for him when he's only hitting .230.

Clearing the Bases: Sox are Loaded

2007-06-25T11:28:00.000-04:00

Clearing the Bases: going through some of the most notable links from the past week...

Baseball Analysts describes how the Red Sox look like one of the two or three best teams in baseball, both for this year and the future...

Here's a great article on Johan Santana...(thanks to Rob Neyer for the link)

More trouble for Elijah Dukes - this time on a local radio station. And here's yet another good quote from the troubled outfielder...

Congrats to Oregon State for their second straight college baseball national championship. Here's their championship celebration, in hip-hop form, from both this year and last year (link via Deadspin). Let's just say it's much better than Juan Pierre's victory rap...

One of my favorite baseball writers, Keith Law, had an interesting chat last week...

Here's a great set of stories about Bo Jackson from one of my favorite blogs, The Soul of Baseball.

A humorous look at how the Jason Giambi-George Mitchell discussions might go down...

Random video of the week: I don't think this is a gyroball, but it sure is a sweet pitch...

Best Player?

2007-06-22T13:50:00.000-04:00

Here's the current poll question on the front page of ESPN.com today:

Healthy and in his prime, which player would you want on your team?
-Barry Bonds
-Ken Griffey Jr.
-Alex Rodriguez

I thought about it for a second...and then for another couple minutes...and I still couldn't decide. I'm a little young to remember Griffey in his prime, but I know he was an outstanding player. Bonds' offensive numbers are unbelievable, but that was in an era (21st century) where lots of people were putting up great offensive numbers, and he was a bad defender (at a relatively easy defensive position), while the other two were excellent defenders at tough positions. Let's break this thing down, stat-wise, using a player's five best consecutive years as his "prime".

Barry Bonds: Bonds was a great player in the 90's, but according to his stats, his peak years were his 2000-2004 seasons. During these years, his average line was .341/.535/.782 (BA/OBP/SLG), which is absolutely ridiculous. For five years, he was getting on base more often than he was getting out. That's just amazing. His OPS for those five years - again, five whole years - was 1.317. I try to refrain from hyperbole, but I honestly don't think I'll see anyone string together five offensive seasons like that in my lifetime.

Young Bonds was a great defender, but 21st century Bonds was nothing close to that. During these peak years, Bonds was a combined -8 FRAA (Fielding Runds Above Average), which is actually a bit better than I thought. His baserunning skills were obviously almost gone by this time as well, but neither defect really comes close to cancelling out his hitting skills.

Let's look at some of the more advanced stats. His OPS+es from 2002, '01, and '04 are first, second, and third respectively all-time at 275, 262, and 260. (An OPS+ of 100 is league-average; the stat is adjusted for the league so it is comparable between eras.) And his 2003 OPS+ was 231, tied for 10th all-time. His 2000 OPS+ was "just" 191, good for 90th all-time, meaning that Bonds was in the top 100 for all five of his peak years. Neither A-Rod or Griffey have any seasons in the top 100. That's pretty good. Bonds' adjusted EqA was over .400 every year from 2001-2004, including two years above .450 ('02, '04). EqA takes into account all offensive contributions from a player, and is evaluated on the same scale as batting average; i.e., a .260 EqA is about average and a .300 EqA is roughly all-star caliber. So when a player posts a .456 EqA, like Bonds did in 2004, it means he's having possibly the greatest offensive season of all-time. Let's take a stat that includes defense as well: WARP3. WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) takes into account all contributions by a player, including defense, and it is possibly the most complete measure of a player's value avaliable. Bonds' WARPs during his peak ranged from 11.7 to 16.2, meaning that, for those years, Bonds alone gave the Giants 12-16 more wins than a replacement player (i.e., a AAA player or a mediocre utility guy) would have.

Here's Bonds' Baseball Prospectus player card, where I got all the info from; all the stats I used were adjusted for all-time.

Ken Griffey Jr: Griffey is known as the best all-around player in the 90's, and that is probably an accurate label. We have to cheat a little bit for Griffey, as he was hurt in 1995, so I'm going to use 1993-1998, excluding '95, as his prime years. This does include the strike-shortened '94 season, but all the stats I'm using are rate statistics, so that shouldn't make a difference. His average stat line over those years was .304/.390/.635, which isn't really even comparable to Bonds' raw line. Griffey was playing in the rather spacious Kingdome and in a less hitter-friendly era, but his OPS+ numbers still don't really compare - a peak of 172 in '93.

Still, Griffey gets a lot of points for being a great defender at a very important defensive position (center field). His FRAA is less than I thought it would be (a combined +12 over those five years), but he still gets a lot of points for being above average at a position that is tough to play. This is kind of off-topic, but Griffey's defense has been awful since 2001 - a combined -75 since then.

Griffey's EqA over those five seasons was very consistant - a low of .325 in '98, and a high of .345 in '94. Those are great numbers - a five-year peak like that, combined with a couple other good seasons, should make you a hall-of-famer. But they aren't even in the same spectrum as Bonds' EqAs. If you look at WARP3, the numbers get closer, however. Because Griffey's defense is factored in, the two players are actually comperable - Griffey's numbers range from 10.5 to 12.6, with three of his five years being above 12. Those are five great seasons, but they're still pretty significantly less than Bonds'. Looking at the numbers, I can't find any way to justify choosing Griffey over Bonds.

A-Rod: A-Rod's 2007 may change things somewhat, but for now, his peak years are 2000-2004, ironically the same years as Bonds'. His average line: .304/.396/.593. Again great numbers, very similar to Griffey's, but nowhere close to Bonds. His OPS+ numbers are even less impressive, But remember, A-Rod was a shortstop (the toughest defensive position besides catcher) for the first four of these years, peaking at "only" 167 in 2000. A-Rod gets kind of unfairly hurt by this system because his 2004 season wasn't that great; if I was able to include his 2005 MVP season, all his numbers would go up. But at this point I'm kind of stuck with the system I arbitrarily made up.

However, you have to remember that A-Rod was a shortstop (the toughest defensive position besides catcher) for the first four of these years, and he was a great shortstop to boot. His combined FRAA for those four years: +31, including an amazing +15 in 2000, his last year in Seattle. (Random note: he was awful last year at third, with a -18 FRAA - that means he cost the Yankees almost two full wins with his glove. Random note #2: In 2003, the year before A-Rod came to the Bronx, he posted a +8 FRAA. Jeter posted a -23. Guess who moved to third base?)

A-Rod's EqAs are relatively uninspiring for those five years, trending downwards from a .346 in 2000. But WARP3 likes him much better, because of his outstanding defense. His low was 10.0 in 2004 (although he went on to post a stellar 12.9 the next year), but his 14.6 in 2000 was outstanding. Overall, here's the average WARP3 for these three players during their peak years:

Bonds: 14.3
Griffey: 11.7
A-Rod: 12.9

So, based on these numbers and the others, I have to go with Bonds #1, A-Rod #2, and Griffey #3, and it's actually not even that close. Sure, Bonds probably used steroids, but that doesn't really matter in this discussion (and how can you be positive the other two didn't?).

Naturally, here's how the voting looks: Griffey - 57%, A-Rod - 30%, Bonds - 13%. What did you expect?

Around the Horn: AL Central

2007-06-21T21:09:00.000-04:00

Around the Horn goes through all the teams in a certain division, talking about what they've done right, what they've done wrong, and what they need to do to get better. Usually I'll get to about two divisions a week. Today: the AL Central.

Cleveland: The Indians have ridden baseball's second-best home record (24-11, second to the Angels) to a tie for first in the division despite playing just .500 ball on the road. They have had good run differentials in the past two years, though their win totals haven't been indicitive of that. Usually, a team's winning percentage will roughly match their run differential (a theory basically known as the Pythagorean Expectation); when that doesn't happen, it is usually the result of luck, and to a lesser extent, a bad bullpen. The Indians can't do anything about the former, but they've tried to fix the latter, with some success; closer Joe Borowski still seems to be a question mark, with a 1.52 WHIP and an ERA over 6, but middle relievers Aaron Fultz and Rafael Betancourt have been good. As for the rotation...Fausto Carmona's 3.12 ERA means that Jeremy Sowers is the odd man out of the rotation, at least for the near future. C.C. Sabathia is quite possibly the most underrated pitcher in baseball; he's an ace and a workhorse, yet he doesn't get the publicity that comparable pitchers such as Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter get. There's not much to say about the lineup...Victor Martinez probably only has one or two more years left as a catcher before he gets shifted to first base, but in the meantime, he's probably the best offensive catcher in the game. Grady Sizemore is one of the first players mentioned in any "best all-around player in the game" discussion, and he's only 24. Travis Hafner has an .833 OPS, and he's having a down year. And there are lots of other hitters on this team.

So, what do the Indians need to do? I don't think they really need to do much; in my mind, they're one of the top two teams in the game (side-by-side with the Red Sox and slightly ahead of the Tigers). But their bullpen could use a little help. They've been mentioned in talks about Eric Gagne, but Gagne has an odd partial no-trade clause that reportedly includes the Indians. That doesn't mean a deal is impossible, but it makes it a little harder to pull off. I haven't heard any other specific names, but I'd imagine they'd be in the hunt for almost any other reliever on the market, as they have a fairly good stash of prospects to deal from.

Detroit: The Tigers have played better than I had expected, but they're not really playing above their talent level - they're just a better team than I thought they were. Unlike the Indians, the Tigers have actually been fairly mediocre at home, but have baseball's second-best road record (24-15, second to the Red Sox). Baseball Analysts today put up a better overview of the Tigers than I could ever write, so I'll just direct you there. Magglio Ordonez is somewhat randomly putting up MVP-caliber numbers; his 1.122 OPS is the best in baseball. Everyone else is hitting, too, though I'm not sure Curtis Granderson can slug .569 all year. First base seems to be the lone problem area, as Sean Casey is barely servicable offensively for a first baseman. The Detroit rotation has been excellent all year; we all know about Justin Verlander, but Jeremy Bonderman is also great, and the rest of the rotation has been solid. The bullpen, considered a strength at the beginning of the year, now seems like a problem area; closer Todd Jones' ERA is approaching 6, and Joel Zumaya is on the DL.

The Tigers also don't have many holes to fill, and I'm guessing they mostly look for bullpen help as well. They've kicked the tires on Gagne also, as dozens of teams will probably do, but I don't expect a match there. They're planning on trying to deal Mike Maroth to an NL team once Kenny Rogers returns from the DL; Maroth could be a very solid back-of-the-rotation starter there, and they could probably get some relief help in return. They may look at Tampa Bay's Al Reyes, but he probably won't be traded.

Minnesota: The Twins are my favorite team, but even I could see they were going to finish third in the division this year. They just don't quite have the lineup depth to match the Indians' and Tigers'. Reigning AL MVP Justin Morneau is as good as usual, and Torii Hunter is playing out of his mind in his contract year, but there hasn't been much else outside of Michael Cuddyer. Joe Mauer missed more than a month of the season due to injury, and they just don't have reliable hitters in other positions (i.e., Nick Punto and his .288 slugging percentage). The Twins are one of only three or four contenders that doesn't need any bullpen help; they're perfectly content with Pat Neshek, Juan Rincon, Glen Perkins, and Joe Nathan. Johan Santana is, well, Johan Santana, and Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva have been decent in the #2 and #3 spots. The back of the rotation has been a disaster, as Terry Ryan (one of the game's best GMs) inexplicably decided Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz were the guys to fill those holes at the beginning of the season. Predictably, both guys were gone by June, but their combined 6.18 ERA has already done enough damage. Kevin Slowey seems set as their #4 starter, but Scott Baker might not be in the rotation much longer; it's probably only a matter of time now before Matt Garza gets the call up from Rochester.

The Twins don't really need to do much at the deadline - they most likely won't win anything this year, but there are very few teams with a better future (although, unfortunately, the Indians probably do within their division). They certainly would like a third baseman, but they probably won't find anything they like - Mike Lowell is too expensive, and apparently they aren't getting Ty Wigginton from the D-Rays. They could go the other way and deal off some veterans, such as Luis Castillo, but I wouldn't expect that either.

Chicago: No team is being watched more interestingly than the White Sox. They're a very disappointing 10 games under .500, although most statheads could have predicted that they wouldn't be in contention for very long. Jim Thome's really the only one who has been hitting, and he missed a pretty good portion of the season. Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye are struggling, and there isn't enough talent in the rest of the lineup to make up for it. Their rotation has actually been good, with Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland each owning ERAs under 4 and Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras each under 5, but they're too far behind to go anywhere at this point.

But the White Sox have been in the middle of practically every rumor out there. Both Buerhle and Dye are prime trade candidates; Kenny Williams is not a shy GM, so they will probably not be in Chicago by the time August comes around. Also, Williams has somewhat of a history of dealing long before the deadline; he dealt for Freddy Garcia in June a couple years back to get an extra month out of him. So you could see a Buerhle trade very soon, although it could just as likely be July 31st. The Mets have been the most-rumored destination, although those talks have died down somewhat recently. The Cardinals and Mariners are also possible trade partners for Buerhle, and today Jayson Stark mentioned the Braves as a place he could very likely end up. Dye is probably going to be harder to move, given his slow start, but there will still be plenty of interested teams out there; the Padres seem to be popping up a lot in Dye discussion. The White Sox's relievers aren't great, but someone might go after Mike MacDougal.

Royals: Do I really have to write about the Royals? Here's the good news: Catcher John Buck is hitting, hyped rookie Alex Gordon seems to (finally) be starting to hit a little, and Gil Meche's 3.21 ERA makes Dayton Moore's 5 yr/55-mill investment actually look wise. Here's the bad news: Everything else. This team is at least three years away from contending for a playoff spot, and they're in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.

There aren't really any fixes for the Royals on the horizon, unless they can petition Bud Selig to move them to the NL Central. They need to stop giving Mike Sweeny at-bats and install Billy Butler as the new DH; Butler has remarkably poor fielding skills, but he can hit as well as any young prospect out there. There aren't really any trade rumors concerning the Royals, mainly because they don't really have any players that anybody wants. Things don't really look good for KC baseball...

News of the Day: Sosa's 600th

2007-06-21T09:15:00.000-04:00

Well, it finally happened - Sammy Sosa hit his 600th homer last night. Don't worry if you didn't hear about it; it isn't really big news. But, since people like big round numbers and because people seem to want to make a story about it, I'll write.

Sosa's 600th homer has made people revisit his Hall of Fame candidacy, because baseball's HOF is still the only one that matters. Seven of eight ESPN experts said yes, although I'm not sure you should try to extrapolate to all the writers, as ESPN's guys have been more reasonable about the steroid era than some of the other BBWAA writers. Jerry Crasnick was the lone no vote, although Steve Phillips has been the target of most of the blog community for saying that Sosa probably didn't use steroids because, I quote, "Why would a player on steroids cork his bat? He wouldn't." But, Steve Phillips aside, I think most of the ESPN guys have it right.

Will Sosa actually get into the Hall? I think the biggest plus for him at this point is that he still has five years until the voters have to make a decision. By 2012, the steroids thing will be a little easier to handle, in the sense that either we'll know better who used and who didn't or we won't know anything at all and therefore won't use it as a big factor in HOF voting. Still, public opinion of Sosa still needs to change. There was a poll just a couple years back about whether or not Sosa would get in, and only something like 25% of the voters said they'd put him in. Now, I believe that poll was taken just after the Congressional hearings, when the steroid witch hunt was at an all-time high, but I can't imagine that number would have tripled in the past two years. Still, I think he gets in eventually, as I think time will heal all the wounds inflicted by the Steroid Era.

I definitely think he should be in. His numbers are HOF-worthy, and there isn't nearly enough evidence for me to keep him off my hypothetical ballot for steroid use. Really, what evidence to we have that he juiced, besides the fact that he grew as he got older and that he hit home runs? He was called in front of Congress...that was just because he was one of the biggest names in baseball, not because Congress had some evidence that he used steriods. He wasn't named in Canseco's book or anywhere else. All we have is speculation, and that's the biggest problem with HOF voting in the steroid era - people will speculate and will randomly decide who they put in and who they keep out. Personally, I wouldn't keep anybody out of the Hall for suspected steroid use (McGwire and Bonds included), but that's a discussion for another day.

That being said, it's not like his 600th home run has anything to do with my hypothetically voting him in to the Hall. What, 588 wasn't enough for him to be a Hall of Famer, but 600 is? Frankly, this season has kind of tarnished his reputation, for me. Sure, Sosa has 12 homers, but he really hasn't been helping the Rangers at all. His OBP is just .297, 160th out of 180 qualifiers. And that isn't what you want from your DH. I haven't really watched Sosa enough to be sure, but scouts have said that he's just sitting on fastballs, trying to find something he can hit out of the park and boost his HR total. Hopefully, now that he's reached his milestone, the Rangers will stop playing him; they're currently 27-44 and have no shot at the playoffs, so they need to be looking ahead to the future. Plus, getting someone in the lineup who can actually get on base should help them today.

Edit: I suppose all this teaches us is that people are dumb, but here are some of the results to today's ESPN poll about Sosa:

1) Is Sammy Sosa a Hall of Famer?
70.3% Yes
29.7% No

4) If Sosa had retired with 588 home runs, would he be a Hall of Famer?
56.4% Yes
43.6% No

Uh...so one out of every seven voters feels that the extra 12 homers makes Sosa a Hall of Famer? In 1998, Sosa hit 66 homers and had an OPS+ of 160 (100 is league-average). In 2000, he hit 50 homers and had an OPS+ of 169. In 2001, he hit 64 homers, had an OPS+ of 201 (one of the 50 best OPS+es of all-time), and slugged a ridiculous .737. But, apparently, to a fairly large percentage of America, it was this season (93 OPS+, .297 OBP) that made him a Hall of Famer.

News of the Day: Barrett Traded

2007-06-20T15:22:00.000-04:00

Michael Barrett is no longer a Chicago Cub; he was traded along with some cash to the Padres today for backup catcher Rob Bowen and an outfield prospect, Kyler Burke. Barrett was obviously traded for his inability to get along with pitchers, having fights with Carlos Zambrano and Rich Hill just this month. And I'm sure his .307 OBP didn't really help his cause, either.

Offensively, Barrett does still have some value. Barrett put up a terrific .307/.368/.517 line last year, and he probably can turn things around despite his slow start. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system thought he would post a .834 OPS, exatly 100 points better than he's doing right now. PETCO Park isn't the best place for him to boost his raw numbers, but overall his bat is still useful. His glove...not so much. Barrett is certainly one of the five worst defensive catchers in the game right now, and he probably has an argument to be #1. Apparently Barrett will get most of the starts behind the plate for the Padres, though they may get frustrated with his defense fairly soon.

Chicago now has three catchers; Bowen, Koyie Hill, and Henry Blanco (currently on the DL). None of these three are very good options; it won't really matter much who they'll play there. Blanco and Bowen are both very good defensively but mediocre at best at the plate.

Here's what MLB Trade Rumors had to say about Burke:

Burke, 19, was drafted 35th overall out of high school last year based on his huge power potential and athleticism. He hasn't shown anything against pro pitching yet. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus says Burke has an "enormous ceiling" with a strong right field arm. This is an upside play by Jim Hendry - Burke could be a star or a complete bust.

Overall, I'm not sure who to give the edge to in this trade...I think the Padres come out ahead in terms of talent, but the Cubs have to be very happy to get a prospect with Burke's upside, given that they were obviously unhappy with Barrett in the clubhouse.

By the way, I never mentioned this earlier...but Chone Figgins hit a walk-off triple to give the Angels a win to cap his 6-for-6 game against the Astros. Think about it - how hard is it to hit a walk-off triple? You have to hit the ball in a place where it's a stand-up triple and you have to reach third base before the runner on first crosses home. I guess the other way you could do it is by hitting a triple, then scoring the winning run on a bad throw to third by the outfielder. Either way, it seems like it should be very rare.

Well, Jayson Stark answered that question in today's blog (the first time I've ever gotten my name into a Useless Info article!) and the answer is, it isn't as rare as you'd think.

But the question we did get -- from two loyal readers (Scott Sukenick and Kevin Whitaker) -- was this: How rare is a walkoff triple?
Well, theoretically, it is tough to hit one. So we checked. But it turns out it isn't as rare as you'd think. We found a bunch of them in the way-back machine -- and nine others just in the last decade (four by the Twins alone). Here are the five most recent before Figgins did it:

Grady Sizemore (versus Ambiorix Burgos) on Aug. 11, 2006
Lew Ford (versus Justin Duchscherer) on Aug. 3, 2005
Quinton McCracken (versus Todd Jones) on July 18, 2005
Jim Edmonds (versus Scott Service) on Sept. 17, 2004
Marquis Grissom (versus Matt Mantei) on May 27, 2003

Wow. I would have certainly expected that it would be much rarer than that. But that's what statistics are for...

Verlander follow-up; Gallardo debut

2007-06-19T22:46:00.001-04:00

This is getting a little old, but on Sunday, Justin Verlander made his first start since his no-hitter; it also happened to be the first since I predicted doom for Verlander, in large part because of his high pitch counts and low first-pitch strike percentage. Well, Verlander had a great start in terms of making me look dumb; he went six effective innings, threw first-pitch strikes to 17 of 28 hitters, and his pitch count was under 100. The Philles' broadcast was very inconsistant in showing the pitch velocity, and Verlander seemed to be throwing a lot of off-speed stuff (at least when I was watching), but his fastball, at least by the end of the game seemed to be in the mid-90's, around 94-95. This is a far cry from the 102 he was hitting at the end of his no-hitter, which I think is actually a good sign - it shows that he's not throwing his hardest the entire game, which will probably make him more durable.

Am I going to go back on my original prediction - that Verlander will get hurt or see a significant rise in his ERA by the end of the season? Not yet. I'd still like to see the Tigers be a little more careful with him, and I'd like to see Verlander continue to get ahead in counts. But this was a good start towards a healthy rest of the season for Verlander.

The biggest on-field story of the day yesterday was the debut of the latest pitching phenom, Brewers righty Yovani Gallardo. Overall, the Brewers have to be very pleased with what they saw, getting 6 1/3 innings of three-run ball out of Gallardo. He had trouble getting Barry Bonds out (1/1, 2B, 2 BB), but was very solid against everybody else. Granted, the Giants aside from Barry Bonds certainly aren't one of baseball's better hitting teams, but it's still a great start. Gallardo hit a RBI double in the second inning as well, for whatever that's worth.

Gallardo's stuff is excellent, especially his curveball. He still has a lot to learn about pitching - one of the few at-bats I saw was when he tried to throw three straight breaking balls to Pedro Feliz in the seventh inning; the third one ended in the left-field bleachers. Keith Law agrees with me: (insider-only)

His pitching plan relied on heavy use of his curveball -- probably too much, with Gallardo throwing it on nearly half of his pitches in the first inning, including the hanger that Bengie Molina hit for an RBI single. Gallardo is a three-pitch pitcher, with a solid changeup. But he barely used the change before he pulled it out of his back pocket in the sixth inning. That said, when he began pitching more off his fastball in the second inning, he started rolling, relying on his outstanding command and hitting the lower outside corner repeatedly to keep the Giants' hitters from making solid contact.

Can he be a future ace with just a 91-93 mph fastball? If his command is as good as advertised, he can be, especially with that great curveball he's got. Gallardo's next start is Sunday against another rather impotent lineup, the Royals.

And guess who blanked the Mets 9-0 today, with no walks and only 92 pitches(!)...that'd be none other than the remarkable Johan Santana. For all the talk about the "down" year he's having - he does have just a 7-6 record - he still has a 2.91 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Yeah, he's still pretty good.

News of the Day: Perlazzo fired

2007-06-18T23:35:00.000-04:00

The big baseball news of the day is that Sam Perlozzo, formerly the manager of the Orioles, got the ax this morning. Bullpen coach Dave Trembley takes over in the interim as the O's try to find a replacement. Joe Girardi's name has come up in a number of places, though some say he's more interested in a high-profile job such as the Cubs or the Yankees. He appears to be the O's #1 target; if he rejects their offer, I don't know which direction they will go.

I really don't know if Perlozzo deserved to be fired or not. The Orioles have not done well under Perlozzo's watch, and they don't really have that much hope for the future. They just aren't very talented, and they don't get enough out of the talent they do have. The biggest problem this year has been the bullpen, although that is one area in which the manager does have some control. Still, there are just no competent arms out there, which is very surprising given the amount of money and time the Orioles spent trying to improve it over this past offseason. They really don't have any hope at this point, so firing Perlozzo certainly doesn't do any harm, but I'm not sure a lot of good is coming out of it, either. There are major problems in this organization, starting at the top with Peter Angelos. I have a tough time seeing this team being competitive under Angelos's watch.

One thing that I do know is that one of the reasons pitching coach Leo Mazzone came to Baltimore was that he was very good friends with Perlozzo. I'm not sure, but I think I read that Mazzone's contract expires after this season. He certainly hasn't had the same success in Baltimore as he did in Atlanta, but I would imagine there would still be quite a few teams who would want Mazzone as their pitching coach.

The other news seems to be dominated by trade talk. On Mike and Mike this morning, Buster Olney mentioned a possible trade between the White Sox and Mets: Mark Buerhle for Lastings Milledge. Buerhle becomes a free agent after the season, but he fills the Mets' immediate need for starting pitching. Milledge still seems poised to be a major-league outfielder in the near future, though he doesn't seem as likely to be a star as he used to be. This does look like a good deal for both teams, though I can't help but think the White Sox might ask for a bit more in return; Buerhle isn't really any more than a #3 starter right now, even in the NL, but they might be able to get more value for him than Milledge, whose stock has dropped a lot since this time last year.

Apparently the Yankees are interested in Shea Hillenbrand, though this doesn't really make sense to anybody. For one thing, Hillenbrand is one of the more flammable personalities in the game, as he is possibly most notable for being cut by the Blue Jays last year for criticizing the front office. For another thing, they already have someone just like Hillenbrand.

Hillenbrand's three-year (2004-2006) splits:

vs LHP: .328/.363/.514 (BA/OBP/SLG)
vs RHP: .280/.323/.433

Josh Phelps's three-year splits:

vs LHP: .288/.343/.551
vs RHP: .236/.293/.378

Hillenbrand would be a bit of an upgrade against righties, but still not very good. A better option for the Yankees would be someone like Carlos Pena or Rich Aurilia.

A follow-up on Justin Verlander and some info on Brewers phenom Yovani Gallardo tomorrow...

Clearing the Bases

2007-06-17T23:50:00.001-04:00

Clearing the Bases: going through some of the most notable links from the past week...

Here's some new information on BABIP that goes contrary to what sabermetricians had previously believed;. In the past, it had been stated that a pitcher's batting average against excluding BBs, Ks, and HRs (aka BA on Balls In Play) was not something he could control, and instead was based more upon luck and the defense behind him, but this new research shows that pitchers do indeed have some control. I had kind of suspected this for a whlie - after all, the best BABIPs tend to belong to the best pitchers - but here's some actual proof that there is a correlation. (Link courtesy of Rob Neyer - insider-only)

College baseball really hasn't taken much of a foothold nationwide yet, but ESPN and other media groups are really trying to push the sport, and I think it's kind of working (and I'm glad). So what better way to increase your sport's popularity than by banning blogging from the press box?

Staying kind of on the same topic...Even I have some trouble getting into the MLB draft; these players are usually at least two or three years away from making an impact, and I've never seen them play before. Still, Carlos Gomez has some absolutely wonderful video analysis of the top 10 draft picks. It's probably worth reading, not so much for the actual information but to see what kind of things he looks for in a prospect.

The Twins may soon call up Matt Garza to replace the struggling Scott Baker, and, as a Twins fan, it's about time. Baker does have a future as a back of the rotation starter, but he's not ready right now, and Garza's too talented to leave in Rochester for another three months. (Link found via Buster Olney)

Guess what? A New York columnist said something stupid!

Scott Boras and Jayson Stark have a rather heated discussion over one of Boras' clients, Andrew Jones. J.C. Bradbury chimes in with his take.

Random video of the week: How long did it take this guy to pull off this shot? And wouldn't they have gotten kicked out of the bowling alley by then?

Clemens vs. NY Mets

2007-06-17T00:45:00.000-04:00

The Subway Series resumed on Friday with Roger Clemens pitching against Oliver Perez, and it was a tale of two teams going in different directions. The Yankees had won their past 9 games, while the Mets had dropped nine of their last 10. The Mets ended their slide and the Yankees' streak with a 2-0 victory, as Perez threw a gem. I was really interested to see how Clemens threw, however; this was his second start in the big leagues, with the first being a decent game against the Pirates (6 IP, 3 ER). Overall, you have to say that Clemens has been everything the Yankees hoped for thus far, although his throwing 6 1/3 innings of 2-run ball and getting hung with the loss was a flashback to his Houson days.

In particular, there were two numbers from his 2006 splits that stood out to me:

1. Clemens was exceptionally tough on righties last year, holding them to just a .185/.228/.286 (BA/OBP/SLG) line. But he was startlingly mediocre against lefties, allowing them to hit .254/.322/.368, still not great numbers but much better than lefties. This stat was particularly relevant to Friday's game, given that the Mets have arguably the best collection of left-handed hitters in all of baseball in Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Green, and Valentin. This should be as good a test as any to see if Clemens continues to pitch at his '06 splits.

2. Hitters hit very well off Clemens when the count was 2-0, which is to be expected; hitters in all of baseball hit best on 2-0. But the next best count for hitters against Clemens was 0-0 - when swinging first-pitch, hitters had a stellar .455 batting average and a .750 slugging percentage, in a somewhat significant sample size (44 AB). So I was curious to see if the Mets hitters would take advantage and swing at the first pitch more often, given that it's apparently easier to hit than the subsequent ones. This kind of makes sense - Clemens' fastball isn't as dominating as it was in his prime, but his splitter is still excellent; maybe he throws a lot of first-pitch fastballs and uses his splitter later in the count.

Anyways, I went back through the game (with help from MLB.TV) and looked at his pitches more in-depth. Here are some thoughts, in no particular order:

Regarding the first two splits I mentioned: The lefties in the lineup went 4-for-15, including a Reyes HR, while the righties were 3-for-12 (with two of those being Carlos Gomez bunt singles). Not really conclusive proof either way. Delgado had an awful game - three K's against Clemens, with another after he left - and the others didn't really seem to see the ball well either; Reyes was really the only one hitting well from either side of the plate. As for the other split: Only three players put the ball in play on the first pitch, and all three got hits (although, to be fair, one was a bunt) - Beltran's single in the first, Reyes' aforementioned homer in the fourth, and Gomez's bunt single in the seventh. Again, it seems the best strategy against Clemens is to take advantage of that first pitch. Clemens threw first pitch strikes to 15 of the 27 hitters he faced, and he threw fastballs to the majority of the hitters. By my count, the Mets only swung at six of these first pitches (and two were bunts!); they might have been able to score another run or two if they had been more aggressive. (By the way, in his debut against the Pirates, only one player put a first-pitch offering in play - Adam LaRoche, who hit an RBI single to center.)

Clemens' fastball is no longer a plus pitch in terms of velocity or movement, but he sure knows how to use it. His location on his fastball was excellent - almost everything was on the corners, and he didn't leave much up in the zone. His pitch topped out at 91, but it was consistantly in the 89-91 range, and he sets it up nicely with his splitter and slider. (Actually, the my9 radar gun said 97 once, but I'm pretty sure that was a misread. Their coverage actually sucked for this purpose; there were more than 20 pitches where they didn't show the velocity reading. Lesson learned...) His command was really good as well - 42 of his 67 fastballs were for strikes.

His splitter, on the other hand, is still probably one of the top ten or fifteen pitches in baseball, from any pitcher. He threw it 29 times, and only thre 9 balls; almost every pitch was in the lower third of the zone, as well. He throws his splitter much more to lefties than he does righties. Clemens did give up three hits off his splitter - a seeing-eye grounder by Reyes that scored Gomez, a one-hopper by Wright that would have been an out if Jeter had any range to his left, and Gomez's bunt single. If he keeps commanding this pitch this well - it usually read in the 84-86 range - he's going to remain a very useful pitcher.

His off-speed stuff really isn't very good at all any more. He throws his slider almost exclusively to righties, but didn't keep it in the zone very well. He tends to throw it pretty early in counts, instead of using it as an out pitch or a chase pitch. He only threw a handful of curveballs, mostly to lefties; he left this up in the zone occasionally, and put one belt-high and over the inner half to Reyes, who hit probably the farthest homer of his life. Again, he used this early in the count as well, mostly to keep hitters honest; he's basically a two-pitch pitcher to lefties now (although those pitches are pretty damned good).

Clemens is going to take some heat for allowing four stolen bases, and he does deserve some of it - he is kinda slow to the plate, and studies have shown that pitchers are just about as responsible as catchers for stolen bases that happen when they're on the mound. However, I think we now have to look at Posada as well - the Mets added another steal after Clemens left and stole five more bags on Saturday, so it's very possible Posada just doesn't have the arm he used to. Yes, the Mets are the best base-stealing team in baseball, but come on - 10 SBs in two games? That's really bad. (Not that I'm complaining - I have Reyes on both my fantasy teams...)

Julio Franco sure is patient...he only swung the bat four times, and he's walked nine times this year in only 45 at-bats. Too bad he can't really hit anymore...

Is the book on Carlos Gomez that he can't hit off-speed stuff? He sure saw a lot more junk than anybody else...

Clemens only walked one, by the way, and got 8 strikeouts; his control was that good throughout the game.

Around the Horn: AL East

2007-06-15T19:44:00.000-04:00

Around the Horn goes through all the teams in a certain division, talking about what they've done right, what they've done wrong, and what they need to do to get better. Usually I'll get to about two divisions a week. Today: the AL East.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox were the best team in baseball through May, starting their season 36-15. But they've cooled off considerably since then, dropping 9 of their last 14 and losing almost half of their lead on the Yankees. If you're a Sox fan, don't get too worried - Coolstandings.com still gives them an 80% chance of winning the division, and Baseball Prospectus is even more optimistic. Their hitting has been very solid; people are saying Ortiz is having a down year, but that's just not true - his HR numbers are down a bit, but he's still OPSing over 1.000. Youkilis and Lowell having All-Star seasons; they're both slugging over .500. You'd expect more than 8 homers out of Manny so far, but his numbers are still solid: .293/.394/.461 (BA, OBP, SLG). J.D. Drew isn't hitting at all - just a .230 batting average and a putrid .340 slugging percentage - but he's still walking a lot, which is a sign that he'll turn things around soon. Dustin Pedroia's been everything he was supposed to be at second base; despite relatively mediocre power numbers, he owns a good .390 OBP. The pitching is very solid as well; Josh Beckett's 9-1 start has been a little overrated, as he has *only* a 3.39 ERA, but he's been a great pitcher. Aside from Julian Tavarez (5.25) - who will stop getting starts once Jon Lester returns - the rest of the Sox starters all have ERAs of 4.52 or lower. Paplebon's been terrific, and reliever Hideki Okajima - who was brought in mainly to ease Dice-K's transition to America - has been outstanding, giving up just four runs in more than 30 innings.

The two problem areas for Boston have been center field and shortstop. Julio Lugo is hitting just .212, and although he has 18 steals, he's not really contributing anything of value offensively for the Sox in either the on-base (.270) or the power (.316) departments. He's actually been a decent hitter at Fenway, but away from home he's OPSing a historically abysmal .447. Crisp has been even worse - he's following a very disappointing 2006 campaign with an even more disappointing season this year. To be fair, Crisp has been very good defensively in center field. As for Lugo, I haven't heard anything, but he isn't above average in any meaningful fielding statistic.

What are the fixes? They could use a little middle relief help, but so could almost every team; it's not a particular concern of the Red Sox. I wouldn't expect a whole lot out of Lugo this year (or any time in the future), but he should be better than this, and the Sox can't really do much else at short with Lugo signed for the next four years for $36 million. As far as Crisp goes...Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA projected him for a .310 BA this year, but given how poorly he's hit over the past season and a half, I don't see him getting anywhere near that. Still, with the offense they're getting from the other seven positions and the fact that there aren't a whole lot of center fielders avaliable to get this summer, I think they're best just sticking with Crisp and hoping he heats up. Jacoby Ellisbury is one of the Sox's best center fielders, and he will be the starter in 2008, but I don't think he's ready to come up soon (as others have suggested), at least not until much later in the season.

New York Yankees: Although you wouldn't believe it from the media coverage, a lot has gone right for the Yankees. Jorge Posada's OPS is almost 1.000, something I never would have thought possible at the beginning of the season. Jeter and Matsui are both hitting over .300. They're getting pretty consistant offense out of all nine positions, except maybe first base. And, of course, they have that A-Rod guy. Yeah, I'd take a .680 slugging percentage and 25 homers on my team, too. They've won their last 9 games to move back above .500 and to close the gap to 7.5 games behind the Red Sox. Pettite and Wang both have ERAs under 3.50. And their bullpen - although thin - has been pretty competent; Rivera, Proctor, Myers, and Bruney all have thrown well so far, although a couple of their arms may fall off by August if their starters don't start going deeper into games (which they have, during this winning streak).

The worst thing to happen to the Yankees this year has been luck. They gave too many starts to Kei Igawa, and Mussina hasn't pitched well, but the other problems with their pitching have all been injury-related - every starter except Pettite has missed some time. But the biggest problem has been luck in another form - wins versus performance. Their Pythagorean Record says they should have 38 wins so far, while they're actually just 33-31. (For the many of you out there not familiar with Pythagorean Records, the basic premise is that a team's run differential is a better indicator of how well they have actually played than their win-loss record; therefore, their Pythagorean record - based off their run differential - is a better predictor of future performance). So the Yankees' resurgence has been primarily a correction of the bad luck they had earlier in the season.

I'm not really sure what the fixes are for the Yankees; like I said, the best way for them to improve is to just be patient and wait for their luck to balance out. I'm not really sure there are any fixes out there for their rotation - Roger Clemens is getting himself into shape, and Phil Hughes is coming back sometime later in the summer. The one area they could improve is first base - Josh Phelps can hit lefties, but he needs a platoon partner; Miguel Cairo won't cut it (and Mientkeywizecjeakcz isn't much better). They aren't really a candidate for the top first basemen on the trading block, namely Mark Teixeria. There were rumors of a Bobby Abreu-for-Jermaine Dye trade, which doesn't really make a whole lot of sense for either team, but those died quickly. I've seen Todd Helton mentioned, but I dn't really think the two teams could work out a deal. There'll be someone the Yankees go after this summer, but I don't really know who it might be.

Toronto Blue Jays: I'm actually kind of surprised that this team has a .500 record; they haven't had much good news. Troy Glaus has been playing really well since returning from a wrist injury (especially against lefties - a ridiculous 1.322 OPS vs LHP), but at this point, he may be most valuable to the Blue Jays through a trade. Alex Rios and Aaron Hill are having good seasons, but they're pretty much the only standouts on a mediocre roster. Vernon Wells isn't doing much to earn his new $126 million contract, with just a .246 BA thus far. And their pitching staff has been completely decimated by injuries; star closer B.J. Ryan is done for the season, and although Roy Halladay has been pitching for most of the season, he hasn't been doing it well; he owns a startlingly mediocre 4.28 ERA, and his K rate is down. Their bullpen has actually been exceptional, making the loss of Ryan much easier, but their pitching staff has not had nearly as much success. A.J. Burnett has a respectable 4.00 ERA, and Dustin McGowan is improving, but most of the other starters have numbers in the fives.

With a bad rotation and a mediocre lineup, the Jays are probably sellers at the trade deadline. They probably won't give up many of their good players, as they can probably contend next year with an upgrade or two, but I do wonder if they might move a reliever or two. They've been shopping Tomo Ohka and Josh Towers, but that's a bit like going to a car show and offering to sell your 10-year-old broken tricycle. Glaus could fetch a pretty penny in a trade, and if the right deal comes along, they might do it.

Tampa Bay: As usual, the Devil Rays are sellers in the trade market, although the prospects of a major deal are probably slim. However, this year offers something new for Devil Rays fans - hope. B.J. Upton is having a stellar season at the plate - although his high K rate suggests that his numbers may decline soon - and they have other talented position players, such as Carl Crawford, Delmon Young (who will come around soon, I promise), and Japanese import Akinori Iwamura. And, for the first time in a long time, the D-Rays have some promising pitching - James Shields, Andy Sonnasnstine, and Scott Kazmir have all showed promise, though the latter has yet to pitch at the ace level he was projected to. Al Reyes has been one of the game's best closers through two months as well. By the way, the Devil Rays demonstrate the flip side of Pythagorean Records (see the Red Sox section for explanation) - the Rays have a respectable 29-35 record, but their run differential says they should only have about 25 wins. So it is likely that their record will drop even more from what they have.

The D-Rays look like they will contend for a playoff berth by 2009 or '10, but they could use some infield prospects and some more pitching prospects. They'd love to move talented outfielders Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes, but neither has any trade value at the moment, due to injuries and off-the-field problems, respectively. They'll probably try to move Reyes and hot-hitting first baseman Carlos Pena, and Ty Wigginton could be a servicable third baseman for a team such as the Twins.

Baltimore Orioles: Unlike the Devil Rays, the Orioles have actually played significantly better than their record would indicate - they are eight games below .500, but they have scored basically as many runs as they have allowed, so one would expect them to have about a .500 record. However, they still shouldn't play well enough to be contenders from here on out. There isn't a single player on their roster with an OPS above .800, which isn't a good sign. Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, and Nick Markakis will hit, but probably not enough to bring this below-average lineup into shape. Their starting pitching has been pretty good - Erik Bedard seems to be thriving under Leo Mazzone, and he will probably become a top-15 pitcher in baseball within a year or two. Steve Trachsel has an ERA under 4.00; he could definitely get traded. Daniel Cabrera has lots of talent, but typically doesn't get much out of it - his 5.16 ERA isn't far off his career norm. Their bullpen has been very disappointing. Closer Chris Ray has been very inconsistant all year, and none of the other relievers have done much better.

The Orioles are also sellers this year, though they aren't far off from contending. Roberts and Tejada both have a couple years left in their prime, Bedard is maturing into an ace, and Markakis is only 23. They could definitely use some bullpen help, but that's probably best left to the offseason and free agency. I'd expect that you see the requisite Miguel Tejada rumors (especially with the Angels), but I would doubt that he's going anywhere. Trachsel could definitely go somewhere, but as MLB Trade Rumors points out, his ERA should rise soon. I'm not exactly sure who the Orioles would target in a trade - they'd love to have young guys with potential that can play in the big leagues right now, but teams don't like to give away those kinds of assets.

Forecasting Doom

2007-06-14T13:46:00.000-04:00

One of the things I wrote about yesterday was that Justin Verlander's first pitch strike % has been really low - below or at 50% in his most recent outings. I thought this was interesting, so I went through some more numbers this morning: Over his last five starts, Verlander's FPS% has been 48.9%, a very bad number. (Remember, this includes his no-hitter.) For the sake of comparision, I calculated the numbers of two other young phenoms - Philly's Cole Hamels has a 56.6% over his last five starts, and SF's Matt Cain owns a 52.4%. So it seems Verlander has been having some control issues lately.

But I went farther back into his game log, and found some more interesting results. In Verlander's five starts before his five previous ones, he did much, much better - 60.3%. So what is the cause for this? The number one factor I would look at is fatigue. I don't know for a fact that 1st pitch strike % is directly related to fatigue, but it seems to make sense. Remember, Verlander threw over 200 IP last season - almost twice his previous season high - and pitched deep into October as the Tigers reached the World Series. As the season went into September and October, Verlander's numbers started to decline last year. This year? With the exception of his last two starts, Verlander's ERA has climbed consistantly throughout the season. He gave up just 2 HR in his first seven starts; he's given up five in his last six outings. His walk rate was pretty high for the first couple starts, and then dropped in the middle of the year, but it's climbing back up again; meanwhile, except for his 12 K outing two days ago, his strikeout rate has stayed pretty much the same.

So, my point is: The Tigers had better be careful with how they use Verlander. Here's what Baseball Prospectus 2007 said about Verlander:

...Postseason included, Verlander threw nearly 60 percent more innings in 2006 than in his pro degbut in 2005 and looked tired toward the end of the year, particularly in the playoffs. There are arguments for doing something creative with him this year, such as using him out of the bullpen for a month at the start of the season. At the very least, the Tigers need to err on the side of caution, because his arm is much too valuable to put in any long-term jeopardy.

So, why do I bring this up? The Tigers are not erring on the side of caution. Verlander has thrown 97+ pitches in all but one start, and he's been over 110 three times. And there's no reason to think this is going to stop. The Tigers have lost a lot of players from their bullpen and rotation, including Joel Zumaya, Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson, and Zach Miner. Because of this, Jim Leyland is going to try to get a lot of innings out of his healthy starters, which could be very dangerous for Verlander this year and in the future.

Anyone remember Felix Hernandez's one-hitter against the Red Sox, back in April? After that game, everybody in the media jumped all over him, anointing him the next Johan Santana. Well, during his next start, he got injured and hasn't been nearly the same since coming back. Well, now the media's giving Justin Verlander more than enough love, and I'm seeing some parallels to the King Felix situation. I'm not saying he's going to get hurt on Sunday, but I will predict that he either goes on the DL or sees a dramatic rise in his ERA before the season is over.

Verlander's No-no

2007-06-13T21:51:00.000-04:00

In case you have secluded yourself from all forms of media except this blog, Justin Verlander threw a no-hitter last night. Verlander rode the benefit of 12 strikeouts and a couple really good defensive plays behind him to record the second no-hitter of the season (the first coming from Mark Buerhle). This was a complete domination of the Brewers' lineup (who, by the way, recorded 22 hits the previous game) - Verlander struck out 12, and the ones who did make contact didn't get it very far; only three balls were hit to the outfield.

Much has been made of Verlander throwing 102 mph into the ninth inning; his velocity climbed as the game continued, going from an average of 96 in the first few innings to 98 around the sixth to 100 over the final inning. Now, the radar gun at Comerica is famous for not always being accurate - last year in the playoffs, Zumaya was repeatedly clocked at 103 when he was really throwing 100, and Verlander was consistantly hitting triple digits when all season long he'd been clocked at 97. But this one seems fairly legit - ESPN's Inside Edge (probably insider-only) had Verlander reaching 102 also, and I trust their numbers.

Verlander mixed in a fair amount of changeups and sliders as well, finishing the game with 112 pitches - actually a bit high, considering he faced only 30 hitters. One of the reasons why was that he only threw 50% first-pitch strikes, which is not a terrible number but is less than ideal. Looking through some of his game logs, this doesn't look like a new thing for him - by my count, in his previous three games his first pitch strike ratios have been 12/26 (46%) against Texas last week, 13/26 (50%) vs Cleveland a few weeks ago, and an especially atrocious 11/29 (38%) against Cleveland on May 31. I can't find FPS data anywhere except by going through game logs, but I know that, when I'm pitching, I usually shoot for a number in the mid-60's. I'd guess that the major league average is somewhere from 55-60%, and a star like Verlander should be in the sixties.

What does this mean? Well, it means Verlander throws too many pitches. His 3.88 pitches per plate appearance are 31st out of 145 pitchers with at least 40 IP this year (incidentally, the lowest number belongs to none other than Greg Maddux, with 3.15), and he's thrown 97 pitches or more in all but one start this year, topping 110 three times. Why does this matter? Verlander is only 24 years old. Last year, he threw over 200 innings (including the postseason); his previous high was 129. And he throws 102 mph. My point is, the Tigers should be careful about Verlander's workload; he could easily end up on the DL for at least a couple weeks before this season is over.

The good news is, he's striking out more hitters. He somehow posted a low K rate last year despite having almost the same stuff; this year, he's upped his rate almost a full K/9 IP. As Rob Neyer wrote last night in his blog: (insider-only, of course)

Verlander has been "pitching to contact" for a while now, and he's good enough to make that work. But tonight we saw what can happen when he pitches to non-contact. No, he might never throw another no-hitter (Roger Clemens hasn't thrown even one). If Verlander boosts his strikeout rate to eight or nine per nine innings, though, someday he'll add a Cy Young Award to the hardware he's already got.

Verlander's a great pitcher witH Cy Young-caliber stuff. And I like how he was throwing harder late in the game, proving that he has the stamina to go deep into the game and that he isn't throwing every pitch as hard as he can, saving some for when it matters. But the Tigers had better be careful with how they use him, at least until he gets into his prime years.

Ripping ESPN.com, continued...

2007-06-13T17:38:00.000-04:00

This probably isn't the best way to start this blog - it's probably more interesting when I blog about, you know, actual baseball. But I thought I'd do a follow-up on yesterday's "discussion" of ESPN's new player rating system. Later on Monday, the creator of the ratings - Jeff Bennett - did a chat on ESPN's SportsNation explaining the rankings some more. Here's the link (I think it's Insider-only).

Here are some of the more interesting questions and responses...

Scot (TX): Some questions on formulas for you Jeff: 1. Why team win percentage? Is Teixeira really a "better" player if he played for Detroit instead of Texas? 2. Why not differentiate CF from the corner OF spots in the defensive standings? A player who can play CF seems to have more value. 3. Did you ever try to work in quality of defense? Right now an excellent fielder and a poor fielder get the same amount of defensive points as long as they both play SS.

Jeff Bennett: A multi-part question off the top....

1) I think there is some value to player on a wining ball club. This is evident with the BBWAA voting. However, it make up only 5% of a score and the difference between Detroit and Texas currently ranslates to about 0.4 rating points.

2. Currently this is a function of the way our stats are coded. Looks for this to be adjusted for in the future. the defensive spectrum would go obviously CF, RF, LF.

3. Yes, much like VORP, quality of defense is not accounted for.

1. Yes, there is some value to a player on a winning ball club. There is also some value to a player on a losing ball club. Typically, the players on losing ball clubs will, on average, have worse stats than players on winning ball clubs, so you shouldn't have to make an extra adjustment for this. By the way, I absolutely love that he thinks the fact that the MVP voting is based largely on team performance is a valid reason to adjust for this in his system.

2. This has been changed, according to the explanations. The difference isn't enough yet, but it's a step in the right direction.

3. So, you're defending a new system by pointing out an earlier, better system that has the same flaw. Remember, this was the stat that was labeled "cutting-edge" on the front page of ESPN.com. This wasn't what I was looking for.

Otter (Boston MA): What do you do for players that have a significant split in where they play defensively? Weighted average of difficulties? Is there any bonus given for this type of versatility?

Jeff Bennett: The position the player plays the majority of his games at is designated his primary position. There is no bonus of versatility, but it is something I considered.

So, if Victor Martinez plays 75 bad defensive games at catcher next year and 70 games at first, and Joe Mauer plays 145 good games at catcher next year...they get exactly the same points for their defense? VORP at least accounts for different positions played during the year (I think it does, anyways)...

Paul (Wildomar, CA): Anybody who has read Bill James knows saves are overrated. Why 40% allocated to saves? Seems to me the other 4 categories, maybe especially inherited runners scored, should be higher. We all know Pat Neshek is better than David Weathers.

Jeff Bennett: Saves are overrated. That is what the actual stat used here has a stiff penalty for blown saves. Neshek does quite well for himself here. He is #116 today overall. Not bad and ahead of many, many closers.

Saves are overrated. Therefore, there is a penalty for when you pitch poorly in a save situation. Does that make sense? And, although there is a penalty for blown saves, getting actual saves is the way relievers get 40% of their points. Pointing out how the best middle reliever in baseball is at #116 doesn't really help your case...

Taylor (Escondido CA): Did you take park effects into account at all? Of course the Padres hitters are going to rank poorly and the Padres pitchers awesome because of Petco. Or, for example, Ian Kinsler (Texas launching pad) v. Jose Lopez (Safeco death to hitters), have the same OPS, yet your rankings have Kinsler higher?

Jeff Bennett: Excellent question. Park effects are not directly applied to adjust the ratings. BIg parks doesn't seem to hurt the Comeria hitters this year or say Dmitri Young. I have a hard time de-valuing Peavy. He is 3-0 with 1.06 ERA on road this year. I see he is ranked 31st in Win shares today behind many pitchers. That seems a little low.

These rankings are flawed in many ways, but the lack of park factors is the biggest one. Saying "Big parks doesn't seem to hurt the Comerica hitters this year or say Dimitri Young" not only is very gramatically flawed, it is logically flawed as well. If a player has good stats in a pitcher's park, he would have even better stats in a hitter's park. That's simple logic. Hitters are always "hurt" by big parks, whether or not their stats are good. And Comerica has been a hitter's park this year, by the way, with a park factor of 1.071 (above 1.000 is hitter-friendly).

Bryan (Madison, WI): Don't you think that your formula for relievers makes it too difficult for actual relievers to be rated highly? You've said that saves are overrated, yet they comprise 40% of the reliever rating whereas holds are ignored completely. It seems to me a reliever could have a excellent season and unless he picks up a lot of wins (which is generally determined by the events earlier in the game and by the actions of his offense, not the pitcher himself) it would be very difficult for him to crack the top 100 or 150 players.

Jeff Bennett: Fair question, but set-up men can do well here by having a low ERA, Opp. BA, K-to BB-ratio. Last year Cla Merideth was one of the majors to 20 pitchers when applying retroactively. I think that would be news for most of mainstrream baseball fans. He has unhittbable in 2006 and didn't register many wins (5).

Yes, but those numbers are only 60% of a reliever's value. The other 40% is wins and saves. Basically, from this and some of the other questions, what Bennet seems to be saying is that great middle relievers can move themselves up to the level of a solid-to-good closer if they have a great year. When, in reality, a great middle reliever is often worth just as much as a great closer.

Ian, NYC: I don't understand what your point is behind this list. There are people who have put a heck of a lot of science and research into coming up with formulas like this (Win Shares, VORP, etc), while much of what you have selected here is totally arbitrary (why exactly %10 for BA for eaxmple?), and by pretending this is somehow scientific degrades the whole field of work on this subject. Much of what you are including here has been proven to be no reflection on individual player quality (like saves, wins and RBI to a large extent), not to mention penalizing someone because they play on a bad team. Why should anyone take this list seriously?

Jeff Bennett: Ian, I think you hit on something. There is no sucjh thing as the perfect way to evaluate a baseball player. Win Shares and VORP are great, but you can ask the same types of questions about their lists. This system is very fluid and puts players in perspective based on where they rank in the majors vs their peers. Nothing more scientific than that.

Actually, there are things more scientific. It's great that you compare relievers to relievers, hitters to hitters, etc....but Win Shares compares all players to all other players. Wouldn't that be "more scientific"? And I can't ask the same question about WS and VORP that I've been asking about this one: What the hell do the final numbers mean? WS and VORP numbers have meaning. This system just gives you numbers.

There's some more, but it's mostly just about individual players. Still no answer as to why there's no park factor adjustment, still no answer as to what the numbers mean, still no actual reason there's no defense adjustment. Hopefully ESPN gives up on this quickly.

I'll try to get to some actual on-the-field baseball stuff later today, namely Verlander's no-hitter...

A Bad Idea...

2007-06-12T22:30:00.000-04:00

Okay, now that school's basically over, I'm launching this new private blog. I'll explain more about who I am later, but since there's no high school sports to write about in the summer, I'm going to spend my summer blogging about my true love - baseball. But average fans beware - if you don't know what OPS is, you may want to look somewhere else...

What better way to start off a blog than by ripping ESPN? Let me start with a prelude - I really do like ESPN.com's website. I like some of the colorful stuff like DJ Gallo, and I love their NBA coverage (especially now that they have TrueHoop). And I do really like their MLB coverage, especially the blogs (Insider-only, unfortunately) - Buster Olney and Rob Neyer both have outstanding blogs. I read anything I can written by Neyer and Keith Law. For some reason, it's become fashionable for bloggers to express their hatred for "mainstream" sites like ESPN.com - I don't feel that way at all. (I'm not a fan of their NFL coverage at all, with the exception of Tuesday Morning Quarterback, but that's neither here nor there...) So what I'm going to say is not out of hatred for ESPN.com - it's about how ridiculous this particluar article was.

But Monday afternoon, I came home and found this on the ESPN.com homepage:

Abacus-Cadabra

ESPN.com found a scientific method to sort out baseball's best players.

Put your slide rules down. We've got something more cutting-edge. Want baseball's top 100 players, with a mystical number rating their worth? Done. How about All-Star projections? Presto. Player Ratings

Now, I was intruiged. A scientific method to sort out baseball's best players? You mean, like using statistics? We already have a number of ways to do that, and those could be applied to All-star projections as well. VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is a very good rating of a player's value. EqA is probably the best measure of a player's hitting ability. Bill James spent five years or so working on his Win Shares statistic, which not only rates players but also expresses their worth in a meaningful way (wins contributed to their team), not just a "mystical number". But you're saying these stats are now archaic? Your stat is "more cutting-edge"? Cool! I'd love to see what new and creative stats you came up with!

Unfortunately, the explanation was less impressive. Here's the link to the story explaining the rankings, and it's not nearly as "cutting-edge" as it seems. Instead, the formula basically takes a bunch of counting stats and mixes them to produce one super-stat, a smart idea except it's been done hundreds of times (and usually much more effectively) by other people before. Here's how they figured out how batters rank:

Batting bases accumulated: 20%
Runs produced: 15%
OBP: 15%
BA: 10%
HRs: 10%
RBIs: 5%
Runs: 5%
Hits: 5%
Net Steals: 5%
Team winning percentage, defensive position: 5% each

Let's take these one-by-one, to make things more organized:

Batting Bases Accumulated: 20%
This is very reasonable - the formula given is TB + BB + HBP. It's kinda like OPS, except actually a bit better, since it doesn't count hits twice. It's not perfect, but it's a good start.

Runs Produced: 15%
Oh, boy. They define "Runs Produced" as Runs + RBI - HR. So, you're saying that 15% of a player's worth is based on how good his teammates are? Raul Ibanez finished seventh in RBI in all of baseball last year. Raul Ibanez. Jimmy Rollins OBP'd only .334 last year, but still managed to finish tied for third in runs scored because he had Utley and Howard hitting behind him. There are dozens of statistics that are a better measure of how good a player is than runs or RBI (though apparently nobody's told the ~~Most RBI~~ MVP voters that yet...)

OBP 15%; BA: 10%
Not really a whole lot to pick at here, although both should be worth much more than they are. Hits are worth more than walks, so BA should be a category, along with OBP. One thing to notice, though, is the curious overlap of stats - you've already really accounted for both OBP and BA in the "Batting Bases Accumulated" category...it seems they could have condensed things some and made it less confusing (or maybe more confusing)...

HRs: 10%
Um...what about doubles? What about triples? You really think you can determine 10% of a player's worth directly from how many homers he hits? Okay, then...

RBIs 5%, Runs 5%
Again? Didn't I go through this already? First of all, "RBI" stands for "Runs batted in", so there's really no need to add an extra "s" there. But that's just nitpicking. Still, so far 25% of a player's value is apparently determined by how good his teammates are. And more strange overlapping of stats.

Hits: 5%
Okay...how are "Hits" and "Batting average" different? Couldn't they have just weighted BA by at-bats, eliminating the need for another "Hits" category? This is really starting to confuse me...

Net Steals: 5%
I'm assuming they mean (SB - CS). But, according to numerous experiments, a player is actually hurting his team if he converts less than 75% of his steal attempts. So, shouldn't you have used 75% as your baseline? Plus, steals aren't often worth that much anyways - certainly not 5% of a player's value, with the possible exception of ridiculous Juan Pierre-types. (And, actually, his success rate was under 75% last year, so the value of those steals was negligible. Not that his .330 OBP added much value either...)

Team Winning Percentage, Defensive Position 5% each
If you're counting at home, that's 30% of a player's total value that is based on how good his teammates are. Really, winning percentage? You're saying that Oakland's hitters are more valuable than Tampa Bay's because Oakland's pitching staff has given up 150 fewer runs? How does that make sense? To be fair, the actual impact of this ends up being not much - the difference between 36-26 Detroit and 23-40 Texas ends up being only about .4 points (out of 100). Which prompts the question, why have the category anyways? But the more egregious one is the second column. Only 5% of a position player's worth comes from what position he plays? A player's net steals is worth the same as his position? This is completely absurd. The league-average 1B last year hit .285/.365/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG). Pudge Rodriguez' career numbers are very similar - .304/.342/.483 - but, because he's a catcher, he's a future 1st-ballot Hall-of-Famer. Are you telling me Pudge, for his career, was only 5% better than the league average first baseman? Secondly, they count all outfielders as "OF", and don't count where they play in the outfield. Center fielders are much more valuable than corner outfielders, because they must cover much more range. In fact, according to the defensive spectrum, center fielders are more valuable than third basemen as well. So this system unfairly hurts center fielders, and that is obvious in the rankings. Finally, there is no accounting for quality of defense, either. So, according to ESPN's "cutting edge" stat, it doesn't matter at all how good a defensive player you are! Derek Jeter must be thrilled...Update: According to ESPN.com, they now differentiate between the types of OFs, though the difference still isn't that much, and CF is still behind 3B. But it's a start...

Here's the formula for starting pitchers:

ERA vs. league average weighted by IP: 40%
Wins weighted by win percentage: 20%
Innings Pitched: 10%
Defensive independent bases allowed per IP: 10%
Strikeouts: 10%
Opponents' BA: 10%

These are actually okay categories - ERA is probably one of the best stats to use here, and it's good to see they used the league average to account for the DH. IP is important, because pitchers who throw innings are helping their team get through games, even if they aren't very effective innings. The defensive independent bases are defined as (4*HR + BB + HBP), which is a very good measure of a pitcher's true effectiveness (i.e., not determined by luck or defense). Unfortunately, they then have to count opponents' batting average (very influenced by luck and defense) at the same weight, which doesn't make much sense. But the one category that really sticks out is wins. Wins are loosely related to how good a pitcher is, but are at least as related to how good the team is. Case in point:

Randy Johnson, 2006 - 17 wins, 5.00 ERA
C.C. Sabathia, 2006 - 12 wins, 3.22 ERA

Who had the better year?

Relief Pitchers:

Saves and wins with blown save penalty: 40%
ERA vs. league average weighted by IP: 20%
Opponents' BA: 20%
K/BB: 15%
Inherited runners stranded percentage: 5%

ERA is tough to use for relievers, as one bad inning can really damage your ERA because you don't throw very many innings, but there aren't that many better metrics to use. K/BB = good stat, Opponents' BA = bad stat. The save is quite possibly the dumbest stat ever; is your best reliever more valuable with one out and the bases loaded in the seventh in a tie game or with nobody on and a three-run lead to start the ninth? Wins are almost completely random for relievers; often they come because a reliever actually has a bad outing and blows a save, but ends up with a win when the offense saves them. And what is this "steep blown save penalty"? The formula given is (saves * 2) + wins - (blown saves * 3). That means that if a closer converts around 67% of his save chances and picks up the lucky win or two, he gets some points. (What are points, anyways? Is 0 a replacement player? Is 50 average? What the hell do these numbers even mean?) I can't find the exact number, but I bet that teams with a lead entering the ninth win much more than 67% of the time. You should not get points for saving 7 out of every 10 games.

Overall, these ratings aren't awful, but they're worse than most of the sabermetrics used today. This would be fine if it were just some guy's creation, but ESPN's trying to actually use it; I saw them being mentioned on Baseball Tonight as if they actually proved anything. ESPN's baseball writers (Olney, Neyer, etc.) have been noticably silent on this topic - they don't want to out-and-out disparage their employer's stat, but if they really thought it was good, don't you think they would have mentioned it by now?

Here are the main problems, as I see it:

1. No park factors - Jake Peavy is rated as the best pitcher right now, mostly because he's having an amazing year, but also partly because he gets to pitch half his games in spacious Petco Field. Meanwhile, stats in mile-high Coors Park count exactly the same as those in Petco or RFK. It's not that difficlut to add park factors into ratings, so it really surprises (and disappoints) me that they didn't go that extra step. This early in the season, park factors usually aren't worth using because they fluctuate so much, but using last year's won't really disrupt anything.

2. No defense adjustment - A great defensive shortstop is worth more than a poor one. That's just fact. Unless you're working with this system. (To be fair, VORP doesn't have a defense adjustment, but it at least bills itself as such.)

3. Not enough adjustment for position - Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, and Jose Reyes can tell you that the position you play determines much more than 5% of your value. The difference between center field and the corner outfield spots isn't enough, and the difference overall isn't nearly enough.

4. Too much reliance on teammates - Really, team winning percentage? Runs and RBI? Wins for a pitcher, and saves for a reliever? These are the best stats you can come up with to evaluate an individual's performance?

5. No meaning to the nubmers - I still can't figure out what the numbers mean. 0 is the floor, and 100 is the higest possible...but where do normal people score? What's a normal MVP-caliber score? 70? 80? What does a score of 0 mean? A replacement player? A bad minor-leaguer? Is 50 average? Is the difference between 60 and 65 big or small? There are way too many questions to answer.

Here's a better system, in my opinion:

Batters MLB ranks in:

VORP: 100%

The ESPN.com "Rating" is an okay stat, and I'm sure it took a lot of effort, but it's not nearly as comprehensive or meaningful as stats such as VORP, EqA, and Win Shares. If this had been invented/popularized five years ago, it might have been useful, but today we have too many other stats that are better. There are too many flaws - such as the fact that it only compares relievers to relievers, position players to position players, etc., and the fact that it doesn't adjust for park factors - it just doesn't measure up to the more comprehensive stats.

Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver has an excellent take on this as well...